WW35: Not Another TPS Report [Game Thread]

[Meiz]

Oh that's actually true...

[Fenn]

I've done some more re-reading. Pardon me while I channel Jowy:

Jabbz, Jkaen and Meiz are town. Molach and zakalwe I'm not sure about but they are most likely town too.

Qgqqqqq is definitely scum.

Q's request at the end of Day 1 to be jailed is curious. It prevents him from getting a scan off, and since Mattimeo was obviously going to die Q wasn't going to be scanned himself, nor be the mafia's target. Also prevents him from proving his innocence by sharing scans, or really proving anything. It's just a terrible idea from a town cop - Bob might have had the same idea too, he never said who he targeted N1. A mafia Q however loses very little by being blocked; only if he is the strongman and a doctor protects Mattimeo would it matter to him, and with one Doctor and the backup doc being discarded Mattimeo might not be protected anyway - especially if the jailer is focused on Q.

Was Q in danger of being scanned last night? Yes, but not as much as he claims. Mattimeo was going to die so he can't get results, and if there really were 2 town Cops then imo the second would have claimed in the face of top suspects novice and Q both claiming cop in addition to Mattimeo. Scum could only kill person per night after all. So that only leaves one plausible cop scan, from a cop lover, and there's no guarantee that he'd scan Q over a player who didn't look especially townie or scummy like Jkaen or Molach - or Meiz, as Rowain did. Besides, with one sycophant out of 4 going to be lynched on Day 1 with no confirmed SKs, I'd wager that the mafia team would want to play the odds with a risky gambit.

Since then his play has not been inspiring. Q and TT take some shots at each other but neither of them ever actually vote for each other. This is the scummiest part of their play imo - if you're suspicious of somebody why don't you vote for them? TT's early day 2 play reads of him sabotaging his own case on Q. Q's tactic on Days 3/4 of holding back his scan results is bizarre, smacks of retroactive justification and doesn't help town in any way. It's gambits for the sake of gambits.

TT's been going after Q off and on since Day 1, but his behaviour on Day 3/4 in particular smells of a doomed scum trying to clear his partner by association. He didn't stick his neck out and vote for Q until it was far too late for it to matter. His distancing was so blatant I think it was intended to be seen through.

Tomorrow let's lynch Qgqqqqq, he should flip as Mafia Strongman. Yeah I said he was town earlier, but past me had no idea what he was talking about. If Q flips scum and the game isn't over yet zakalwe would be my next choice. Don't like how TT historically ignored him and how zak didn't comment at all on Q holding back his night results.

I know we can take this home, guys. Just a little bit further to go!

[Qgqqqqq]

That's...a turnaround and a half from Fenn, there. Like, suspiciously so, especially the definitive statement despite nothing there having changed from earlier - and I don't recall you seizing on, or being wary of, any of those bits previously. This looks a lot like a scum seeing another railroad lynch and being eager to set it on its tracks.

I explained why I asked to be jailed an eon and a half ago, btw. And since when was Mattimeo "obviously going to be killed"? That's a very retroactive statement, Imo. Certainly he was the most obvious town of the lot, but without a strongarm there was a very good chance he'd survive the night. Not to mention the fact that when I made my claim we had novicce/I as cops, with no idea that Mattimeo was also around.

[zakalwe]

Q, why did you breadcrumb the no result on day 2? Were you not intending to reveal your result on that same day, anyway?

[zakalwe]

Sorry, I mean on day 3. The day 2 one I can get.

[zakalwe]

As an aside - gotta love all the twists and turns of this game.

[Meiz]

So Q, who are the remaining mafia?

[zakalwe]

Guys, I've looked over his past dozen post or so, and I *really* don't think Bob is scum. He is making the same posts we've seen from him in half-dozen town games, with the same attitude.

Why would Q make this post? Was he really that confident that the votes wouldn't swing back to TT?

And also, why did TT make this post?

Right, my busy day is now complete and I have an hour or so before bed so have just had a first scan through the posts I've missed. To be honest it's a mess.

There has been considerable early traction on Qgqqqqq and then (naturally) people started getting cold feet and wanting to consider options in case its an easy set-up and he's being made to be a fallguy.

My gut instinct is that we were right with Qgqqqqq based on just how messy it has got since that point. I get that we need to consider other options and that it is day one, but this feels *too* messy that it is being actively encouraged by scum. I get this feeling a lot when I play werewolf and having been forced to stand back from the discussion and frequently 'catch up' with multiple pages of responses makes me feel more confident in my ability to notice shifts in the 'mood' of the day.

I cannot get over the rejection of being a role blocker, and the fact that the mafia cannot communicate during the day leads me to believe that he was scrambling around for an excuse however he could find it to cover his tracks. I can't explain it much better than it *feels* wrong.

Noone else has stood out far enough for me on my current read through to make me want to vote for them. I originally liked Jowy, then he's started moving targets around quite quickly and that made me more concerned. Novice is too much of a risk for me to take early on, but I'd be interested to revisit his status on the next day.

For now at least, while I have time to reread and see if my feelings change, I'm placing my vote on Qgqqqq

His vote made the tally Jabbz: 6, Q: 5, but doesn't mention Jabbz at all. Could be distancing against Q of course, but it seems like the more obvious interpretation might also be the right one.

Tally at that time (post 270):

6 votes: Jabbz (Qgqqqqq, zakalwe, Molach, novice, Rowain, Fenn)
3 votes: Qgqqqqq (AdrienIer, Lewwyn, Jabbz)
3 votes: Lewwyn (Meiz, Jowy, Gazglum)
1 votes: Gazglum (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Bobchillingworth (Mattimeo)
1 votes: Qqqqqqqqq (dtay)
1 votes: Jowy (Jkaen)
1 votes: Fenn (Ichabod)
1 votes: AdrienIer (Azarius)
1 votes: Qgqqqq (Twinkletoes89)

[zakalwe]

I'm not a fan of lynching possible cops on Day One as it's a very risky gambit, so I am backing off Qgqqqqq for now but I'm not sure I buy his claim.

Novice's claim is weaker and his relative absence has been conspicuous for someone I remember as being an active villager.

Jowy summed up the case on Jabbz pretty well, though I have to say that if he hadn't made that post,I doubt that I would've noticed Jabbz enough to vote for him.

Out of those three, I'm voting for Jabbz as I don't want to risk a power role dying early when they can easily be checked or proven overnight.

So with Jkaen and Lewwyn moving their vote since the last count, I have it at:

7 Votes - Novice
6 Votes - Jabbz
3 Votes - Lewwyn

with only bob, dtay and Azarius not voting for one of these three. I'm uncomfortable with someone who's camped their vote for most of the day deciding this but I don't agree with taking the risk of lynching a claimed power role on Day One

These two posts really do look like he's trying to save Novice by pushing Jabbz, though.

[zakalwe]

I'm not sure about Jabbz, I think it's unlikely that there were three scum up for vote but that's too much conjecture to clear him him. I'll place him on my watch list with Qgqqqqq, who I still suspect, and see what today brings.

That is hedging heavy enough for topiary my twinkly friend. I'd say we've had one of the most data-filled Day 1s our group has seen, don't you have any suspicions further than your two man watch list? Nobody to vote?

Why do you still suspect Q? How do you see the wolf Day 1 going down if he was one of team scum?

Do you have any people you think are very town like?

It is hedging because I'm not sure. I'm not going to pretend otherwise. I only vote when I feel I can justify it and it's too soon.

I still suspect Q because he hasn't proven anything. His day one was filled with a lot of desperation when the pressure was on, he rejected a good role and if he is lying about his role, saying that he scried Lewwyn is an easy cover story. He may be a cop, hence my reticence to vote for him, but I do not see why we should trust him because we hope we have two cops.

Also, I feel that my suspicions on Lewwyn implicate him on Day one. When a Q lynch seemed inevitable, Lewwyn suddenly sounds defeatist and gives up on detailing his suspicions about him - arguing that there was little point any more. As Lewwyn is quite an emotional player, I think that his reaction is revealing. What other reason is there for him not to pile on with his strong suspicions unless he's holding out hope for a change in momentum? Lewwyn was more vocal when he chased cases on other players.

On Jabbz, I feel he is more town than before last night. With Lewwyn and novice both scum, he is likely a fall guy to protect them, but that's not enough evidence to clear him. He is engaging more so I'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I'd like to see some pressure on Jowy. He confuses me as sometimes he seems uber town and then he does something that runs contrary to that, like his quick vote hopping yesterday. He's now playing a vocal and dominant role in discussion by declaring many people suspicious or townies, yet the posts give no reasons why he has made those decisions.

Additionally, Jkaen made a late switch to Jabbz when the vote got tight yesterday and he did very little justification for it. I would like to hear more on that.

I still trust dtay so far. I feel he often makes solid posts that I often agree with and as he is a newbie, I wouldn't have expected him to play in this way.

I still think bob is playing a typical bob game and that Fenn has been a steady and often helpful contributor.

The arguments against Q here strike me as weak in a "scum pushing town" way. If Q is scum and TT wanted to distance himself, odds are he'd have something better than that. (Genuine scum tells against fellow scum are very easy to spot.)

One thing that bugs me a little about that post is the part about Jkaen. Jkaen's justification was the exact same as TT's justification. That comment might just be an opening that TT gives himself to later vote for Jkaen. But somehow it also feels like an obligatory "gotta suspect my scum buddy" comment.