[PB22 Spoiler] Joey and Borsche puke on the funny pages

[GermanJoey]

T182.

Hmmmm...




So, Portugal did indeed take the city, and are plenty damaged. I did not have enough troops to clean them up this turn, but I will the next. One very odd thing, that confused me for awhile, was the presence of new reinforcements when his Carracks had been too far away last turn to make the trip. I thought at first they were new Carracks, meaning he had a total of 11 in the area, but then I could not find the stack of 4 from the previous turn and the stack of 3 was very far away. It wasn't until I had finished playing and was on my way to work did I suddenly realize that 2mn had double-moved me; he used his position as the last-and-first in the timer to move the Carracks 6 tiles. There is no other way for him to move ships from so far out of my LOS (I have a 7 mover frigate and galleon in the area, I am able to scout far). This is pretty annoying; I had sent them in a PM 2 days ago letting them know that we were in a turnsplit:

(sent to REM, Adrien, Dreylin, 2mn, and OT4E)

Hey,

Looks like we're in a 3-way turnsplit, unfortunately. The order is Carthage -> Korea -> Portugal. Good luck.

Joey

Could they perhaps have misunderstood, and thought that only Carthage/Korea and Korea/Portugal were in a split, and not Carthage/Portugal as well? It seems doubtful, given my aggressive gold demand sent on that initial turn... could a lurker please clear this issue up with them? I don't want to send another PM as I'm afraid it would affect their actions. What I'm truly worried about is the fact that they brought a new treb - not a cat - along with a mace even though the city of Stade de France had already fallen... a glance at the tech screen shows that they just got RP *last* turn and have 4.4k gold in the bank, meaning that they're possibly just 2 turns from rifling. If they abuse the last-first thing again and upgrade the maceman after the turn roll, then I actually would have only next turn to attack before the presence of a rifle stops my knights cold. It seems likely that they're planning to advance on me next. I could theoretically defend against a small rifle/knight stack, as I have many cats back in 3CD, but I'm afraid that would be too tempting a scenario for Korea, a chance to charge at my choke one last time. Better to nip this in the bud now even if it does nuke my precious trade routes.

Anyways, I took another city from REM; I lost 2 Knights, one at 32% odds vs a C1 Pike and then another one at 80% odds vs a CR2 Mace, but I won against the longbow at least. The city had a granary, not bad. Unfortunately there's no food in the BFC... he's got a lot of watermills on floodplains, which is like, kinda nice? But I'll probably have to pave over at least one or two with farms, just to get the city jump-started a little faster. I dunno, I won't really try to micro it until it comes out of revolt, maybe its fine. REM retreated his Knight a bit, probably hoping to pick off some damaged unit on his turn. I tried my best not to give him a good opportunity but he does have a lot of options to hit. With these roads in place, I can hit Portugal with about a dozen full-health Knights, 2 swords, and a cat next turn, if I choose to do so.




Other news... I was legit #1 in CY this turn, cool. Furungy responded positively to a fish offer and emptied out his capital a bit, at least of the Knights, but still about 12-15 units remain in garrison. My pocket galleon finished and I loaded it with aqua-capable Knights, but I'm unlikely to do anything with it for awhile, not unless dtay begins a legit assault on Furungy's mainland. I'm just keeping it hidden in the polar ice caps for now.

A fearsome barb invader reared his head, forcing me to redirect a knight garrison from my mainland:




I was quite sure this area was spawnbusted from my cultural borders... there must be something I'm misunderstanding here, I thought that barbs could not spawn within two tiles of a border? Hmm...

I'm saving gold this turn, then planning to 2-turn Constitution and Corp back-to-back.

[Ceiliazul]

Spawnbusting is effective 2 tiles from a unit (whether they can see that far or not), but cities only spawnbust what they can see.

Ill ask portugal about their understanding of turn order.

[GermanJoey]

Ah, thanks for clearing that up. (x2)

[GermanJoey]

Hmmm.... what will happen if I do (option 1) or do not (option 2) hit Portugal? Lets break this down:

1.) If I attack Portugal:

• I'll get these two cities, both of which are very nice spots, and get the rest of this peninsula (2-3 additional cities total)
  
• 20ish free GG points and some more upgrades
  
• I lose the Portuguese trade routes, currently worth 99 commerce per turn... but how much of that will be made up for with internal routes? might not be as big of a deal as I thought...
  
• I'll need to maintain a big garrison in, hell, lets call it my "western core"
  
• I'll need to maintain a decent navy in these waters to guard against them - big downside
  
• Portuguese attention will be split between me, the FSH, and dtay - downside
  
• I'd tempt Gawdzak to hit my flank
  
• I'd have a more complicated border with Gavagai

1.a) If I attack Portugal and they decide to keep coming at me:

• Portugal will stay weak - downside
  
• I'll have my attention split when I really need to be worried about Gawdzak - huge downside
  
• they might decide to tech astro/chemistry instead of rifling, giving an opening for dtay
  
• I'll lose a lot of hammers defending

1.b) If I attack Portugal and they don't come after me:

• They might try to snipe some of the korean mainland with rifles, which would be great and perhaps let me take MCG, which would free up 3-4 cities worth of territory - good cities too.

1.c) If I attack Portugal and they do nothing, just slinking away home:

• I keep my northern possessions and stalemate with Korea

2.) If I don't attack Portugal:

• I don't get the two cities.
  
• I'll still need to maintain a big garrison and navy over here
  
• I don't lose trade routes... still a big plus.
  
• Korea will be less tempted to charge me... either a plus or a minus, depending on how many troops they have to spare.
  
• My border with Gavagai would be mostly unchanged

2.a) If I don't attack Portugal but they hit me @ rifling:

• I *might* lose the two cities I already took, or else have to expend a lot of effort (hammers and beakers) to keep them
  
• Gawdzak would hit me for sure - disaster

2.b) If I don't attack Portugal and we have good relations and they hit the Korean mainland:

• It is very likely I can press forward to MCG

2.c) If I don't attack Portugal and we have good relations but they don't continuing pressing Korea:

• Nothing, baseline

Given 1:
1a: 20% (unlikely, but they still have a window to do it with dtay distracted by Furungy, and I'm sure they are quite desperate...)
1b: 30% (also unlikely, but they are desperate for land... if they came with a lot of rifles and trebs then they'd have a good chance and would have a vastly better chance to keep this land)
1c: 50% (they might try to build up to hit dtay instead, before he is truly out of control, or at least feel like they have to protect their core)

Given 2:
2a: 30% (they're desperate and may decide its worth pressing their soon-had ground advantage even if it means another tense border that they have to garrison away from dtay)
2b: 50% (they'll want to continue expanding their sphere of influence over here without adding to tension... I mean, if you have to maintain an army anyways, you might as well have something worth protecting, right?)
2c: 20% (they'd have essentially gotten nothing from this war except somewhere to maintain another big garrison)

of course, I say all this, write it all out, pretending I'm evaluating my options, but really... what I'm feeling is like Avon here:



I'm just a gangsta I suppose... and I want my cities.

I think the strategically wise choice would be to not hit now, if only so I can stay secure from Gawdzak until I can reach Artillery... although what happens if he reaches Artillery first? Can I do anything about him at that point? Shit, and he's up two techs towards that already... arrghh... do I continue teching towards Corp now? I guess a near-term Zulu invasion is less of a worry than a long term one, if he's also thought along those lines. That's another point in favor of attacking Portugal now... ah, I dunno, I'll just flip a coin next turn or something.

[GermanJoey]

T183.

I logged in to see a request from 2metra asking for marble for 8gpt. 0_____0

Are you serious my man. Our last diplo inter-action, just 2 turns ago, was me demanding all your gold and you sending back iron for iron, and now you think everything's just hunky dory enough for me to help you build your HE??? Too much for me, too much. We're obviously talking so far past each other here - AI-diplo is hilarious. Well, I was leanin' towards hitting anyways, as this might tempt dtay to keep pressing Furungy and thus open up a chance for me to grab Nidaros, but this just put me over the edge.













why does Korea got all these lighthouses in cities without seafood? well, whatever, I'll take 'em.

My before and after bpt/gpt after the war-dec was 1949/1556 -> 1930/1531, which I thought was far less than expected until I realized that my previously isolated fishing village got +13cpt in routes, since war-decs (and open borders agreements) re-calculate routes. So, its really 32bpt/39gpt - still less than I expected. Cost of doin' business I guess.

I didn't have enough ships in range to clear out their Carracks, but I will next turn and then give them peace. They've got 5600 gold saved up, enough to power through rifling + astro + chemistry if they want to. I'll have rifling by the time they have all that + can get ships back over, though.




The stack in MCG - nothing to worry about, Korea's all spread out guarding for boat-attacks.




I have a lot of ships, heh.

[GermanJoey]

T184.

2metra suicided the rest of their Carracks last turn, losing three to kill 2 galleons, including my 7-mover. They also weakened the Frigate, but it was still healthy enough to kill one of the victorious ones. A nearby Galleon killed the last one; that's 7 ships dead for them, 2 for me. They've gotta be hoppin' mad to try for odds like that, but that's hardly unexpected. I certainly would be too. I offered white peace this turn, to indicate that this is the extent of my aggressive intentions, but I hardly expect us to have good relations or anything like that from now on. I'll keep a moderately sized Navy on my side of the continental divide and then use Privateers to pick off any new ships I see massing near their island, but don't plan to blockade them or anything cruel like that unless they truly desire to continue this war.

Korea has all its cities but one blockaded right now, and next turn I'll get that too. I wonder if that will cut off their iron supply from abroad? Does anyone know? At any rate, I don't plan to advance on them until I have cannons. It's just not worth it to waste thousands of hammers of units at them at low odds right now.

Speaking of cannons, Gawdzak got Steel this turn, yowza. He's now 3 techs up on me towards Artillery. Steel is an Industrial-era tech, increasing the KTB from 6% to 8%, which I believe will be enough of a boost to allow me to 1-turn PP on the last turn of my GA. My tech path is fairly hard-wired right now: Constitution -> Corp -> PP -> RP -> Rifling -> Steel -> SM -> Physics -> Artillery -> MT. That means AL will be very far away... my plan for my GA was to pop one then to speed factory and coal plant construction, but should I still wait that long? Hmmm...

[GermanJoey]

T185.

Portugal did not accept or reoffer peace... they got Chemistry this turn, so I'm sure we'll see Astro soonish too. I guess they want to fight... I've got some frigates to flash at them next turn, maybe they'll accept peace then and see that there's no profit in staying at war with me.

I decided to stay in Bureau for awhile, so I just switched into Rep as it was available. It gave +100 beakers per turn straight up, partly from fixing my happiness problem in Groooming, nice.

I dropped to 6th in power this turn... Commodore and plako have been drafting insanely hard lately, and dtay has been steadily climbing as well. I think Gawdzak has a big lead but the 2-6 positions are pretty tight with each other. I'm not too concerned yet, as rifling should be ready in 6ish turns, but I'll need to keep my eyeballs peeled that's for sure.

[GermanJoey]

T186.

Good good, Gavagai wardecced Korea, saving me the trouble of razing this city myself. As long as he doesn't advance any further I'm completely fine with him taking this and all the land above it. The land to its sides is barren (desert in the east and mountains to the west) so it should be a good border for us.




mmmmmm these guys...

shown in this screenshot are seven workers...




Two stacks of three + the one on the farm, one stack now belonging to England. What the hell are all these workers doing out here??? Is REM so spiteful that instead of just deleting the workers, he's giving them to my rival for free?!?? Arrgh, these hooligans!

I'm gone into a bit of a spite mode myself. Portugal finally accepted peace, allowing me to pull out all my ships (leaving behind one Privateer to spy on them, taking care not to stop on any of their high yield tiles) and fully concentrate on squeezing Korea. I've full blockaded their entire coast, minus 1 tile at Wembley Stadium and that fort below MCG, which I'm covering with a galleon next turn. I really hope that this cuts them completely off from the rest of the world... I really don't want them getting any new military techs while I'm waiting for cannons and trade routes have got to account for much of their income.




Gawdzak's fleet is finally back home, and yowza is it big. I could fend this off if all my ships were together, but half of them are over messing around with Korea and Portugal... gonna need more boats!




I had 3 cities come out of revolt this turn and planted another (city #41, The Wotch), pushing me above 2200 beakers per turn. (also, +60 CY over dtay!) I finish corp this turn, and I fully expect to top 2500 bpt with that!

[GermanJoey]

T187.

Looks like the workers were supposed to be a feint or something to bait out one of my knights, because REM took the 3 workers back from Gav and apparently deleted them. I tried picking off his C1 Knight with a C2 F Knight of my own, for the XP, heh, and whiffed. WHATEVER. I consoled myself by blockading the last of their coast this turn, sealing them in completely.



Gavagai took their city after I logged out, and it looks like he kept it.

Last turn of my GA, Corp in... I did indeed hit 2500bpt at 100% slider. Gold-saving rate was +1900gpt. Hopefully PP takes some of the sting out of this GA ending.




I was surprised to see that I was only #2 in MFG... dtay did throw a GA this turn, switching in to US of all things. At first I didn't think much of it, but then I realized....




OH SHIT, THAT'S RIGHT - HE'S GOT LIKE A BILLION TOWNS!!!!!!!!!! LOOK AT ALL THOSE GODDAMN HAMMERS!!!! Wow, what an unexpected yet extremely powerful gambit, I bet he's getting around 200 hpt extra from this alone (GA+US) plus whatever he can cash-rush, yowza. My shiny extra 100bpt from Rep looks limp and kinda sad now, in comparison. =/

I doubt any other civ will try competing with him for SoL either... Gawdzak and I are basically playing an archipelago map (I have cities on 8 separate landmasses, heh), Gav and Plako would want it but are very behind in tech, and everyone else is either too small or too behind or both. Looks like dtay is still in the lead in this game, despite Gawdzak's recent gains.

[Ichabod]

If only you could switch the orange civs and get the Dutch right now, production wouldn't be a problem...

Can't wait to see you reaching first place. Only one more to go.