WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Lewwyn]

I'm rereading the zak wagon starter from yesterday and it feels so off... The only one whose post isn't scummy is Matt, I'm convinced town Matt would have wrote the same post. Really, after a day of attacking Zak Saul posts this :

How about instead of just agreeing with me that zak is scummy we vote for him as well?

and in the next 5mn 4 different people change their vote. 4 people, from 20:47 to 20:49 put their vote on Zak, taking him from super safe with 1 vote to a contender for the day lynch. That's way beyond unlikely. Especially from Q Fenn and Brick, 3 people who hadn't made a great impression on the first day (at least to the town in general). If I had to guess, out of the 5 Zak voters there were 1 or 2 scum (plus Matt), if there were 3 scum voting for Matt they had the power to save him (and it would mean they all went on him early on which is strange, I'd expect one or two to be creating deep cover not all of them).

My guess is that following that Saul post (not that I have an opinion on Saul right now, not anymore anyway) one or two scum decided to take a chance and jump in on Zak, but bad luck/timing made other people jump in at the same time and the wagon looked unnatural. The only one I kind of like is Lewwyn, he arrived super late and decided on almost no info that Zak was scummier than Matt, even going as far as stating that he had "town lean on Matt". That could be some weird WIFOM but it looks genuine. Out of the four other members of the original Zak wagon, there's a convenient wagon on Qgqqqqq that I'm happy to join.

Does this sound a bit like giving us the summary version of what was going on in the scum thread to anyone else?
Eh not so much. Also AdrienIer voted for Matt 4th and was the vote that put him in the lead at the beginning of the Matt train. I also haven't seen anything he's done that's particularly scummy. In fact the whole rolling his name random and self vote and then changing it reeks of a villager rather than scum. I have AdreinIer in my village column.

[Fenn]

Lewwyn took some heat on N1 due to the timing of his vote in light of Matt's flip (iirc from novice and zakalwe mostly). Plus nightkilling him wouldn't benefit the wolves in the same way that I think killing zak has.

[Doctor Saul]

I think I would like to hear what novice is thinking now. Sunrise, too, especially since he told us last night that the conversation can wait until today.

[Gaspar]

fwiw i did think about those concerns, just don't see why scum would be more attuned to managing town's perception of them than a townie, you don't want to get lynched as one and you don't want to get mislynched or distract the town as the other. Everyone in the game has an incentive to avoid looking scummy, some just have it easier.

Disagree with this. Survival instinct much higher as scum from my experience. As village you feel like you've done your job if you tried. As scum you need to survive to do your job. That's theorycrafting though and most of you hate when I do that.

On point, my whole evaluation of you is based on your tone. Its obvious listening to you that:

1. You're new at this
2. You want to do well.

If scum, I'd guess you're getting coached in scumthread and hence the drop off in posts because you "did well" on D1 would make sense. If town, well I would think you'd feel emboldened because we killed a scum on D1 and post more. Obviously its a weekend and RL and all that so you can only take it to mean so much.

I basically have a ton of reads on you at this point, which leads to null read.

[Lewwyn]

Things I don't like a about Jabbz:

1) Bandwagony vote onto the first Saul train (heh)

2) His reaction to dtay saying he's scummy for the Saul train vote (Basiaclly to call dtay Saul's scumbuddy) (Additionally during Day 1 while it was happening I sided with Jabbz because I didn't like some of dtay's logic, in th end though dtay is looking more villagery to me and as a result Jabbz is looking less good in that exchange)

3) Jabbz moves off of Saul onto Matt when Matt is already at 7 and noone else is above 2. It's late in the day and seem pretty obvious Matt is a goner. He votes with this post:

Just caught up. I believe I have a little over an hour to respond, unless I'm reading time zones wrong. In case I'm wrong however, I agree in theory that a policy lynch of Mattimeo is justified. Responses to everything else incoming.

Sort of an okay gotta get my village cred as early as possible type of vote. The responses to everything else that he gives are mostly null tells.

4) During the night I engage Jabbz, and it culminates in this line:

Yeah, but, the death is of scum making and not by hanging. Town reads still don't mean much. And scum would be cognizant of the attacks they made on people if they were about to kill them. It provides very, very little context for that very reason. And again as I said, villagers don't actually know jack. SO if you feel like being night killed strengthens a person's town reads you're likely both wrong or helping scum. Or scum looking to capitalize of your own nightkill.

We will just have to disagree here Lewwyn. I find there to be a great deal of information in who gets killed and who doesn't. Villagers do have reads, and not everyone playing is a raging idiot. When I now look at some of Zak's arguments, I don't now have to decide whether or not they were a wolf making arguments, or a townie. I know. Since I know Zak makes good arguments, and I know he was town, I can now give his reads more meaning. If you want to claim that makes me scum, knock yourself out.

Personally I take issue with this because Zak's reads are just as fallible as every other villager's reads. He knows nothing. Zak even says in Day 1 "I don't know who to lynch".

4) It's been almost 24 hours now and Jabbz hasn't voted or made any comments on who is scummy or not. He was on after the Zak's death but didn't make any comments about what Zak's death gave him in context which he was apparently gung ho to do.

So that's where I'm at with Jabbz. I think he might be at the top of my suspect list right now. I will say that Fenn's vote on him is interesting because I do have Fenn on my suspect list too.

[Gaspar]

Eh not so much. Also AdrienIer voted for Matt 4th and was the vote that put him in the lead at the beginning of the Matt train. I also haven't seen anything he's done that's particularly scummy. In fact the whole rolling his name random and self vote and then changing it reeks of a villager rather than scum. I have AdreinIer in my village column.

Fair, that was my read earlier as well but he does keep poking my nose a bit.

Lewwyn took some heat on N1 due to the timing of his vote in light of Matt's flip (iirc from novice and zakalwe mostly). Plus nightkilling him wouldn't benefit the wolves in the same way that I think killing zak has.

Eh, I guess I've just played too much WW. I sort of write off all the night dialogue as posturing on the NK. I often don't even read it until the day starts. If I was scum, I'd never factor any heat a player got overnight in my kill decision. Also think killing a village Lewwyn is pretty similar to killing a village Zakalwe.

Anyway, none of that matters to you, since that's all born from my personal RBWW experience. So thanks for answering.

I think I would like to hear what novice is thinking now. Sunrise, too, especially since he told us last night that the conversation can wait until today.

I'd like to hear from novice as well. My current WAG is that one of Lewwyn, novice or Rowain is the scum bandleader. Rowain has read as townish as Rowain ever reads to me. I suspect we'll need at least another day-night cycle to answer that question, however. Sunrise is definitely trying my patience with his lurking. I don't at all rule out the possibility that both he and Matt were scum.

[Lewwyn]

I'd like to hear from novice as well. My current WAG is that one of Lewwyn, novice or Rowain is the scum bandleader. Rowain has read as townish as Rowain ever reads to me. I suspect we'll need at least another day-night cycle to answer that question, however. Sunrise is definitely trying my patience with his lurking. I don't at all rule out the possibility that both he and Matt were scum.

Agree that novice is a plausible scum godfather here. And that Sunrise's absence help make his tiff with Matt feel more like a scum distancing ploy.

[Jabbz]

I'm not around much today, but I did skim through the posts. Yes there is more context now with both Zak and Matt dead. Yes I feel like I'm getting information about it.

That being said, no I wont defend myself constantly this game. I wore myself out last game doing 15 freaking days of defending myself. I look scummy every game, deal with it, or don't. I very much mean it when I say I'd rather be lynched early and laugh at you for having tunnel vision, than I would spend another game on the back foot like last time. I gave my explanations for my actions. You can accept it, or not. Your choice.

BBL

[Doctor Saul]

So that's where I'm at with Jabbz. I think he might be at the top of my suspect list right now. I will say that Fenn's vote on him is interesting because I do have Fenn on my suspect list too.

I'm really having a hard time with suspecting you and agreeing with your arguments at the same time Lewwyn

But yeah, Jabbz and Fenn are the two that stood out the most on my re-read. (I mean, does nobody else find Fenn's over-descriptive explanation of his time away in day 1 scummy?) Dtay's case against Fenn is pretty much in line with what I read.

abbz is being very aggressive day 1 and disappearing day 2 is looking bad to me. I don't like how inconsistent he his in how I'm the most scummy, up until the point where it's okay to lynch Mattimeo for policy reasons. I also don't like how when he was pushing me it was like I was scummy no matter what I said, like the bar was always being moved on what was scummy and what was not.

Still, I just can't help but think I've seen this kind of "easy" case before, and one of the reasons I am doubting him as scum is thinking maybe he's just an aggressive / overly eager new player who just doesn't explain his thought process well. But that is starting to look less true now that he's disappeared. It's seeming more like a demotivated scum that had his buddy lynched day 1 and is now on the block himself.

[Lewwyn]

I'm not around much today, but I did skim through the posts. Yes there is more context now with both Zak and Matt dead. Yes I feel like I'm getting information about it.

That being said, no I wont defend myself constantly this game. I wore myself out last game doing 15 freaking days of defending myself. I look scummy every game, deal with it, or don't. I very much mean it when I say I'd rather be lynched early and laugh at you for having tunnel vision, than I would spend another game on the back foot like last time. I gave my explanations for my actions. You can accept it, or not. Your choice.

BBL

I'm not asking you to defend yourself. I started with a very specific question. What context has Zak's death given your reads and suspicions? The fact that you fall back on "I'm tired of defending myself" doesn't do anything to move the needle here.

I am completely open to changing all of my reads at anytime if I have a reason for doing so. Today has been very productive for me. I've gotten better reads on Gaspar, Sauldicator, dtay and some mixed reads on Fenn. But mostly because they actually responded and interacted with me.