RB Pitboss #2 [SPOILERS] - Speaker and Sullla

[Ashain]

Heh, now would be a really good time to get Nakor to very obviously move a nice big stack right next to Dantski's border and end their NAP. That might get him thinking real quick.

[Sullla]

Having spent what should have been my dinner period pouring over the game, I'm feeling a lot better about our situation. Why? Simply because this position is not, in fact, an impossible one to play our way out of. There's indeed a solution to this three-way invasion, although naturally it represents a bit of a gamble on our part and depends on our opponents continuing to make some silly decisions - which has already taken place, mind you!

First though, a quick disclaimer. I am not a military man, nor do I have any intention of ever being one, though I have a great deal of respect for the servicemen and women of the US, and our friends around the globe. However, I do teach military history, and I have enough familiarity with the subject from playing a gazillion strategy games to have a fair hand at tactics. When outnumbered, and facing human opponents (not AI idiots), it's best to turn to genuine military strategy for some answers. I want to point to some key passages from Carl von Clausewitz' classic text On War. Clausewitz has a section on superiority of numbers, and argues that a force outnumbered has very little chance of winning engagements. Therefore one must try to achieve superiority of numbers wherever possible:

These examples may show that in modern Europe even the most talented general will find it very difficult to defeat an opponent twice his strength.... We believe that in our circumstances and all similar ones, a main factor is the possession of strength at the really vital point. Usually it is actually the most important factor. To achieve strength at the decisive point depends on the strength of the army and the on the skill with which this strength is employed.

But Clausewitz doesn't mean quite what it sounds like here; it's obviously a platitude that having more soldiers on your side is good. Clausewitz was writing from the perspective of Prussia, the smallest and weakest of the European Great Powers in the early 19th century, and trying to find answers to the security dilemma posed by a nation with exposed land borders and rival states on all sides. What he's really emphasizing here is how a general can achieve superiority of force, even if they lack inherent numbers on their side:

Consequently, the forces available must be employed with such skill that even in the absence of absolute superiority, relative superiority is attained at the decisive point... Relative superiority, that is, the skillful concentration of superior strength at the decisive point, is much more frequently based on the correct appraisal of this decisive point, on suitable planning from the start; which leads to appropriate disposition of the forces, and on the resolution needed to sacrifice nonessentials for the sake of essentials.

- On War, Howard/Paret translation (1976), p. 195-97

So what does all that mean, exactly? As Clausewitz states, we are going to make sure that we have achieve a relative superiority of numbers at the decisive point of battle; this necessitates identifying first where that decisive point is located, and secondly, to achieve that relative superiority in the face of an overall disadvantage, we must "sacrifice nonessentials for the sake of essentials." We must bring all of our collective resources to bear in order to attain decision at the critical juncture of this war!

I'll go into the practical details of that in my next post. Stay tuned.

[Speaker]

Heh, now would be a really good time to get Nakor to very obviously move a nice big stack right next to Dantski's border and end their NAP. That might get him thinking real quick.

He already ended the NAP, but because of the ridiculous "10 turn cooldown" clause, his hands are tied for an eternity. Seriously, what a ridiculous agreement. I would never want to tie my own hands like that. Flexibility is key, and Nakor can't take advantage of Dantski's vulnerability because of his lack of it. It would sure rake me to look at an empty city 3 tiles away and know I couldn't capture it because of a 10-turn cooldown. Bleh!

I'm heading home soonish, Sullla, and then we can sort this thing out. I've got a few ideas to kick around.

[antisocialmunky]

Strategery

Yes, as aptly demonstrated in the Franco-Prussian War where the logistics advantages of railroads allowed the Prussians to mass forces much faster than their opponents could. That coupled with an experienced leadership dedicated solely to the defense of the state allowed an outnumbered Prussian Army to defeat an opponent with numerical superiority, better troops, and better weapons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-prussian_war

But the same ideas lead to the idea that whoever could mass more troops quickly would be able to win a war in one decisive battle by throwing a ton of troops at the other country's ton of troops. The fixation of this idea lead to stalemate in 1914 and the horrible war of attrition for the next 3 years...

That's off topic though.

Anyways, if you can shift your defense north and take out some of the JowYazKAthele stuff quickly and decisively, you could probably then turn south and wipe Dantski out.

Oh well, its not like it can get much worse - and look on the bright side, while you'll probably end up slaving away some of your lead but if you can come out of this, you'll probably be able to wipe both Dantski and Jowy(especially Jowy) out.

[Shoot the Moon]

Out of curiosity, how many of you lurkers who have contributed to this thread are playing in PB3? I hope to be able to swing by your threads and make some suggestions to you!

*Raises hand*

[Mr. Nice Guy]

In regards to your current war situation, I think you may have overlooked one very important strategic upper hand...

Lock. Box.

Really, though, the way you are thinking through the war situation may well overshadow how well you thought through peacetime. That has significantly improved my gameplay, and I am excited to see what tricks and lessons you have to teach your foes, and your lurkers too!

[Sullla]

I've got a few ideas to kick around.

Good, because I've got some of my own, Speaker! I'll outline my thoughts here for the readers, and then we can hash out the further details.

We have 31 military units:



We have this turn, and then one more before Jowy and Kathlete hit Chancellorsville. (If Jowy had moved in this turn, like he should, we would have only this current turn to reinforce Chancellorsville.) In the south, we have this turn, and then two more before Dantski can hit Gettysburg. Same ETA for Shiloh in the east.

I'll cover our three fronts separately, starting with the least dangerous and working up to the toughest:



Gettysburg
Opposing force: 6 axes, 2 chariots, 2 spears
Current defense: 1 archer, 1 warrior, 1 horse archer, 1 chariot
Nearby: 2 archers (NE-NE), spearman (Antietam)

This looks *REALLY* bad, but it's actually our least worry. Honestly, the main problem caused by Dantski's declaration of war isn't the threat of losing cities, it's just the fact that his invasion force ties down soldiers that could be sorely used on other fronts.

Given our limited number of units, we need to get the most out of the units we do have. That means concentrating our archers in Gettysburg, where they can get the double bonus from innate hill bonus + hill defense. Since Chancellorsville is not on a hill, it's best to put our free roaming archers inside Gettysburg, and move our "real" units like the horse archer and chariot up to Chancellorsville, for the larger battle.

Recommendations

- I hate to do it, but I think we need to upgrade the warrior in Gettysburg to an axeman. We could really use one axe in the city on defense, and we *CANNOT* pull any axes away from Chancellorsville. Yes, burning 120g on an upgrade sucks bigtime. Losing our capital to a bad dice roll sucks even more.

- Move the 2 archers back into Gettysburg. We just get better value that way. Move the chariot and horse archer in there now up to Chancellorsville.

- City micro: this sets up perfectly. We whip an archer there this turn, at the swapping penalty (2 pop!) Yes, again this sucks, but we do regrow one of those pop next turn, and HR allows us to get away with all this without unhappiness. That gets us 1 [overflow] + 30 [whip] + 13 [prod] = 44 shields this turn; 19 overflow + 16 [prod] = 35 shields next turn, and 10 overflow + 16 [prod] = 26 shields the following turn. That's an archer each turn for 3 straight turns! Ha.

Final defense: 6 archers + 1 axeman [40% culture + 25% hills]
I simmed this out today in the Worldbuilder, and 4 archers + 1 axe (with no defensive bonus at all) defeated Dantski's force with full promotions over 50% of the time. 6 archers + 1 axe will essentially be invulnerable. If Dantski attacks, he will get bloodied. If he doesn't attack, well, more time for us to amass defenders and counter-attack!



Shiloh
Opposing force: 2 axes, 1 chariot, 1 spear, 1 skirmisher
Current defense: 1 axe, 1 spear
Nearby: 1 chariot, 2 spears + 1 archer (Fredericksburg), 1 warrior

This location is the safest if nothing changes. It's somewhat more dangerous than Gettysburg, however, because there could still be more units coming out of the fog. I don't think so, but we have to consider the possibility. Nevertheless, we should be able to hold on here too.

Recommendations

- Obviously the spear moves into the city for defense. Our Woody II warrior won't do much, but he may as well move into the city too. We don't need to upgrade this warrior, barring some kind of crazy disaster. (And I know - I would vastly prefer to upgrade Spiros here with Woody II than the 0XP axe in Gettysburg! But the positioning of the units rules it out. Life sucks sometimes.... )

- The (slight) gamble: we move a spear and archer out of Fredericksburg and down to Shiloh. Now we are obviously screwed if Kathlete or Jowy have more Mounted units racing out of the fog to attack Fred. But that's what I was talking about in my last post; when you're outnumbered, you can't be strong everywhere, and you must sacrifice the non-essential to protect the essential. We have to gamble that these teams are taking their shot at us, and won't be holding back much of anything in reserve.

It's not much of a gamble, since we can still do an emergency whip in Fred if need be! Well worth doing.

- We will also obviously whip an archer in Shiloh, next turn at the non-swapping penalty. (I made the change already, after taking the screenshot.) Borders will expand on Turn 102, *JUST* before Dantski can attack, so that's a nice break for us.

- We *DON'T* need the chariot here, and I suggest sending it to the main battlefield at Chancellorsville. Every unit will count there.

Final defense: 1 axe, 2 spears, 2 archers, 1 warrior [20% culture]

Dantski would need an act of God to beat that will the forces we're seeing right now...

For the readers, Dantski screwed up in three ways here. #1, he should have kept his force hidden longer before revealing it to us. His stack could be one tile east, with no loss in ETA at Shiloh, and we wouldn't be able to spot it yet. Dumb. #2, he should have more skirmishers with his attack force. Only bringing one, when he has the best second-best choking unit in the game, is just silly. #3, he should have kept his forces concentrated! This pithy little stack won't achieve anything. If he had these axes over at Gettysburg, we'd be in a lot more danger...

Let's get to the main front:



Chancellorsville
Opposing force: 10 phalanxes, 6 chariots, 4 horse archers, 1 spearman
Current defense: 1 axe, 1 spear, 1 archer, 2 horse archers
Nearby: 2 axes + 1 spear (NW), 1 axe + 1 horse archer (W), 1 spear + 2 archers (Hampton), 1 spear (Antietam), 2 horse archers + 2 chariots (various)

This is the really dangerous spot, as we're facing a full 21 units and a full 2 vs. 1 from our most hated opponent. We also only have this turn and the next one to mass defenders here. This literally is the decisive point in the war; if we can hold here, Kathlete will jump out of the war, and we'll be back in business. If not, well, we get to join sunrise and regoarrarr in the lurking thread.

Recommendations

- Obviously our "nearby" units in empty space will pile into the city. (Attacking in the field is out, given the numbers against us.) I want *ALL* of our horse archers and chariots brought to Chancellorsville, since this is the decisive battle. Even though they don't get defensive bonuses, they do give us warm bodies, and could be critical. We can also pull the spear from Antietam to help out. All of these units have just enough time to reach the city before it gets attacked.

- Here's the great gamble: I think we should move *ALL* of the units from Hampton to Chancellorsville. Both archers and the spear! Remember, our two foes do NOT have line of sight into Hampton. They won't have a clue that we've emptied it out completely. And we need those defenders desperately. Hampton swaps to archer (already done it in-game), and whips it out next turn, for at least token defense.

If Kathlete peels off to attack Hampton, well, we can still move our spears back in there. But I don't think that will happen. And if it does... well, would you rather lose Hampton or Chancellorsville? War forces tough choices sometimes. Frederick the Great had to sacrifice his capital at several points in order to keep fighting (and he eventually won in the Seven Years War). Hopefully we won't have to do that, but these are daring and dangerous times for our civ.

- City micro: Once again, this sets up perfectly. We get 5 overflow this turn, which allows us to whip an axeman at the swapping penalty (2 pop). That gives us 5 shields [overflow] + 30 shields [whip] + 10 shields [prod] = 10 shields overflow next turn. Take that 10 shields + 10 shields [prod] + ~20 shields [forest chop outside city radius] = 40 shields, good enough for a second axeman the following turn. These can also be spears, FYI, but given the large number of phalanxes, I think that axes are our most-needed defender.

Final defense: 6 axes, 4 spears, 3 archers, 5 horse archers, 2 chariots [40% defenses]

That would give us 20 defenders, and with culture bonus plus defender "wrong-footing" the attacker, Chancellorsville would be pretty safe from attack. Now Jowy and Kathlete can choose not to attack, but again, that gives us yet more time to whip, chop, and produce more units. And Kathlete isn't going to stick in this war long if they see it failing to achieve an easy victory. (This is truly an opportunistic strike for them, not a long-term struggle to the death. At least, that's how I'm reading it!)

I haven't included Antietam or Fredericksburg into these numbers because it doesn't look like either can build units in time to join these battles. We'll probably just build horse archers in both. (Maybe Speaker will have some ideas here.)

So that's how you can turn absoute inferiority into relative superiority. We just may be able to do this after all!

Oh, and Jowy not moving in this turn was ENORMOUS weed of the greatest sort. By not moving in this turn, we're able to get *SIX* extra defenders into Chancellorsville!!!!! God bless our enemies and send them more of the pungent weed!

[SevenSpirits]

I would have thought the hill in Jowy's lands gives vision into Hampton Roads; is that incorrect?

[BobRoberts]

Thanks muchly for the defensive update there. Have read it several times and it's keeping me from bed on a work night! A thoroughly fascinating read.

Got my fingers crossed for you. Best of luck. Deliver some !

[sunrise089]

Guess who gets to hang out with the cool kids