WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[AdrienIer]

Mattimeo's contributions to the world :

Apologies for my prior absence; was moving yesterday.

Disclaimer: I am terribly at mountainous, as the complete lack of meta generally leaves very little of the data I would normally analyse actually present.

novice is back to spamming, interleaving generally helpful stuff of actual gameplay with the random posts for the sake of posting. Definitely more active than early in recent games. Slight town.
Zak is engaging nicely, but then he generally does that. And switching votes excessively, but, again, he generally does that. Lewwyn has an interesting point about the Adrien vote, though. No real lean.
Lewwyn's main contribution is that large zak-analysis while not considering it worth switching to him. Slight town for actual analysis happening.
Rowain sits on Zak, commenting about not wanting to vote Lewwyn (yes) due to existing bias against him. Not much else contributed. No real lean.
Adrien votes me for lurking (fairly, as it turns out :/), then seeks approval for giving town points to novice and Zak. I generally dislike it when people play the "I'm new" card to the hilt, especially when they've been around for more than a few games now, but I'm willing to cede that putting a vote over it would mainly be OMGUS.
Bob votes zak for "for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction"". And yet, the only person who's read anything off that is Bob. Seems to me, wanting to kill off a reasonably strong player and scrabbling for an actual justification to do so. Also, jumping on an established wagon - his vote brought zak up to 3, clear leader. Not liking that play at all.

Gaz votes novice for the reasons I'm leaning town on him, then goes back to being afk. Disagree, but need more to actually get a lean on him.
Shadeun's contributions thus far have been of impeccable quality. 100% town, guaranteed.

Bobchillingworth

You mean that Gaz votes for Rowain and not Novice, I take it? So you have a town lean on Rowain for not wanting to hand out town points?

Could you clarify, Gaz voted Rowain and not me. So Gaz voted Rowain for the reasons you're leaning town on Rowain, or Gaz voted Rowain for the resons you're leaning town on me, or what?

I misread, actually - thought Gaz was voting novice, rather than Rowain. The lack of capitalisation in the vote got me.

Which means Gaz is firmly in the 'not enough activity to judge' category along with Shadeun.

That's a LOT of nothing. His conclusions are : slight town on novice and Lewwyn, not liking Bob and me. I also like novice's D1, and it would make sense to kill off Lewwyn if he thought him slight town. He's a nightmare to scum when established town (my reasoning for killing him last game as SK).

I think Shadeun, Rowain, Matt all look like potential scum.

This is also my conclusion.

I see Gazglum has voted Mattimeo so I'll follow him for now but my preferred target today is Shadeun, just give me a few minutes to write my case.

[Shadeun]

ASSUME ADRIEN GUILTY
....
So if Adrien is scum, I think he is partnered with Zak, Matt or Novice. I would understand if other people thought he was partnered with me as well.

Or you, Gazglum, could be with AdrienIer. Which fits better than any of your proposed people given your defense of him and your playstyle feeling similar to WW38 when I stupidly voted to save you.

On Novice: I think novice is not so stupid to post this:

Bob or Lewwyn for me.

Then follow through with the Lewwyn night kill after bob proved innocent by hanging. Agree Novice has been acting differently, but this will save me from voting for him today I think.

So my belief at the moment:
Gaz + Adrien = Scumbuddies
I think gaz goes out of his way to protect Adrien because of the small game.

So AdrienIer because:
-play seems remarkably similar to last game,
-the last minute switch to save him (whoever his scumbuddy might be, even if im wrong on gazglum)
-lewwyn was voting for him and then died in the night. Everyone casting around for others to blame but think Gaz/Adrien are best case here.
- easiest two man coalition (despite gazglums casting around otherwise)

Contributions on others:
Rowain: has definitely changed. There are people here I'd like to hear more on this? Why is noone jumping on what gazglum says - presumably you guys (who have played more with him) have a view here? Want to hear your POV novice? (late note: while this has been sitting half written Rowain posts again on Gaz which I like)
Mattimeo: is non-existent. Got a town lean early and certainly been his style in last game to hang back. However, I think Matt is the easy target for today if you night kill the guy with the big gut-move play from WW38 (Lewwyn) and potentially set up novice.
Zak: no idea. seems normal.

[AdrienIer]

AdrienIer gives the same 'off' feel as previous two games. But might be their style to post lots.
Bob and Rowain come off agressive. This seems 100% normal.
Novice is talking much more and 'feels' a bit different to previous games.
Lewwyn's posts seem a little more disinterested than usual (including his vote for AdrienIer) so seems a little different - could just be a different situation personal-wise to last 2 games.
Zak seems to be gunning for people already which is good. Too good a player for me to have a read early. This is perhaps the thing I learned from last game most, where i am weak.
Gazglum is walking the world and hopefully will return to us tomorrow with stories of revelation. Then I feel some friendly animosity will be due after my misguided friendship ruined my participation in WW38
Mattimeo is funny and engaged. This seems odd for him. Very odd.

AdrienIer because seems best option now.

Meta: assuming no powers. We likely have 3 wolves out of 9 right? This means we just lynch away on scant evidence day 1 and see who's votes and comments seem to click? Kind of game that is going to require a big sheet of paper I suppose (per Lewwyn's hint of how he does it last game)

Further: I presume, given the dispersion in PM's that it would be bad form for me to come forward and say what time mine was sent at? Because then we would have clusters (at least amongst those that post initially before the lies begin). Maybe this is the case for all WW games?

Also: I'd like to apologise for being late. I don't use the forums for any other purpose than playing WW with you guys and lost the habit during the break. (someone please invite me to something!!)

Shadeun's contributions thus far have been of impeccable quality. 100% town, guaranteed.

no votes: Shadeun

Its good to see I've made friends in my first two games. <3

So your conclusions are that Matt is engaged because he posted 3 times (once to post a tally) ? And both Lewwyn and I are a bit off, yet Lewwyn gets the "RL might be different from last time" card and I don't ? You vote for me and join the wagon but already gave yourself an out by saying it could just be my style. 3 wolves comment is strange as hell, it was mentioned in the game setup that if there wasn't enough players a 2 wolves 7 towns setup would be good enough.

Shadeun, why did you assume that there would be three wolves?

Look at the question mark at the end of my sentence. I was asking if 3. However, on reflection, if you mislynch day 1 with no power and then wolves kill then it becomes 4v3 and then wolves pretty much win without some amazing play by town. So we are hunting two wolves unless Jabbz 'has it in' for town from the get-go.

Adrien + somebody would be the obvious wolf combo here for my money. Way too defensive and then jumped on bob.

Others: novice defending adrien "he's not feeling it" seems strange, even if it was tee'd up by Zak. Also the 3 wolves question was way off mark - i was clearly asking a question (which nobody answered for me, letting me think it out myself).

Zak: switched last minute, has been pretty engaged but not sure here. Needs to be pressed more on the switch given surely logic dictated Adrien was a better vote?

Gazglum: Although Gazglum can never be trusted again after WW38. However, does seem to be scum hunting a little. I don't think (if he was scum, even adrien scumbuddy) he comes out before deadline and says this:

This is a weak end to the day. Riwain lying low so adrien hangs. His argument that he is intentionally playibg worse (I say passive is worse) is absurd.I hate to do this, but im going to have to order everyone to move thier votes to him.

Big risk with A: massive downside if he's with adrien and both scum. If he's scum and NOT with with Adrien then why say something so brazen and indicate towards someone that had very little focus?

At work so will finish there to get something down.

I really don't see how my vote for Bob can be seen as scummy. With 3mn on the clock I decide that I might as well vote Bob just in case, I didn't expect it to work (you quoted it yourself later on, but here it is if you missed it).

Not that me living is really going to happen.

And "way too defensive" is just ridiculous. I've got 4 votes on me, some for no reason like yours, how am I supposed to not be defensive ?

Also the 3 wolves question by novice was NOT off mark, your precise question was

Meta: assuming no powers. We likely have 3 wolves out of 9 right?

In which the word "likely" is pretty important. It's very different from "are there 3 wolves out of 9".

[zakalwe]

Gazglum, Bob was my alternate case. I was telling AdrienIer how his defense of Bob made little sense but he didn't respond to that.

I don't think scumBob would necessarily recognize the wagon on me as a weak one. The way I see it, he joined my wagon with a weak argument. But he was trying to make a strong argument. Saying that he wouldn't do that because it would look so bad is overthinking it. If he is scum, he was still trying to look good.

Rowain, what are the scum points against AdrienIer, in your mind? Who are your runner-ups?

As you can see, I was also having some doubts about my company, so I was questioning Rowain.

I didn't want to move from AdrienIer to Bob and tie the two of them at 3 votes with myself at 2 votes. If AdrienIer was so determined to stay on me, I figured I would just let him hang.

In fact, I'll put my vote down for AdrienIer once more. His play still doesn't make much sense as a townie. But if he's scum there are many scenarios in which his passive play at the end makes sense. His too-late-on-the-face-of-it move to Bob would probably be intended to frame Bob as the next lynch.

Well, I'm cross-posting a bit and see he's back on the offensive now. I'll keep an open mind.

I think you keep making some persuasive points against Rowain, Gazglum, but he also keeps defending quite well. It could just be town on town action. That's a very roundabout way to arrive at a Mattimeo vote, though.

[Gazglum]

Also the 3 wolves question by novice was NOT off mark, your precise question was

Meta: assuming no powers. We likely have 3 wolves out of 9 right?

In which the word "likely" is pretty important. It's very different from "are there 3 wolves out of 9".

Adrien, why do you think the wording here makes this damning?

Shadeun, I fear you are once burned and twice shy. What about my play do you think is similar to last game? Last game I hedged around then halfheartedly joined a bandwagon that got me killed. This game I went for Rowain from the get-go. You can argue its scummy, but it's not a repeat.

Zak, it was a roundabout vote on Matt, but I don't think that makes it a bad one given that he makes sense to me as scum in both scenarios.

[AdrienIer]

Also the 3 wolves question by novice was NOT off mark, your precise question was

Meta: assuming no powers. We likely have 3 wolves out of 9 right?

In which the word "likely" is pretty important. It's very different from "are there 3 wolves out of 9".

Adrien, why do you think the wording here makes this damning?

Because if you say that something is likely and someone asks you why you're assuming it's true it's not "way off the mark" it's just an interpretation.

[AdrienIer]

So scum Shadeun is just trying to wave away novice by implying his question is ridiculous. Well it's not. Try again

[Shadeun]

Also the 3 wolves question by novice was NOT off mark, your precise question was

Meta: assuming no powers. We likely have 3 wolves out of 9 right?

In which the word "likely" is pretty important. It's very different from "are there 3 wolves out of 9".

Why would I ask a meta question about the number of wolves in my second post early game if I am a wolf? Clearly I missed most of the end of the set up discussion otherwise I wouldn't have shown up on the 6th page of the actual game and not posted anywhere on the forums in between then.

Read all of my play from last game. This is the kind of thing I do - am just a little less considered in posting than the rest of you guys. Don't think it gives me a town lean, but don't think it should tip towards wolf either.

So your conclusions are that Matt is engaged because he posted 3 times (once to post a tally) ? And both Lewwyn and I are a bit off, yet Lewwyn gets the "RL might be different from last time" card and I don't ? You vote for me and join the wagon but already gave yourself an out by saying it could just be my style. 3 wolves comment is strange as hell, it was mentioned in the game setup that if there wasn't enough players a 2 wolves 7 towns setup would be good enough.

And "way too defensive" is just ridiculous. I've got 4 votes on me, some for no reason like yours, how am I supposed to not be defensive ?

re: Matt. At the point I was at he had a great contribution and seemed to think it through. He was first on Bob and, although ultimately a bad choice, gave his reasons and stuck with his guns.

re: Lewwyn.. I gave him a pass. He turned out to be town when killed. He felt a little off but less so than you. Also I was pretty impressed last game with Lewwyn and him essentially having the winning plays for town and want him around to see what he thinks (clearly the wolves share this opinion).

re: your defence: This is a good point, you should have been on the defence and you were at the end of the day. Didn't find it persuasive and ultimately you got lucky (or zak is your scum buddy - but I think you two as a pair is unlikely)

Ultimately, your initial posts were too convivial (see below). You then didn't really address (and I agree it is hard to do so) the questions raised by Zak. Clearly Rowain wasn't impressed either, and I thought (and still think) you are the best case for scum due to (by your own later admission) weak defence posts.

But... But... But I was asleep ! And then nothing happened for 3 hours ! But yeah this is a 9 player game so sliding along isn't really an option, it's far easier to track 8 people's contributions than 18.

Novice is being very active for now but I've yet to play enough games with him to know how to interpret that. Zak handing out town points sounded odd to me too Rowain.

Almost 24h in, 3 people missing (Gazglum said he'd be away today), only events are Zak's town lean stuff and novice's activity and comments about role PMs and stuff, being pretty enthusiastic about everything. About the former, baiting in your first posts is not a bad way to start the day for town and I'd be willing to give Zak a tiny town lean on that. About the latter Zak says novice wouldn't be enjoying himself so much if he was scum, do the other vets agree ?

[novice]

In fact, I'll put my vote down for AdrienIer once more. His play still doesn't make much sense as a townie. But if he's scum there are many scenarios in which his passive play at the end makes sense. His too-late-on-the-face-of-it move to Bob would probably be intended to frame Bob as the next lynch.

Could you name some scenarios?

[AdrienIer]

Also the 3 wolves question by novice was NOT off mark, your precise question was

Meta: assuming no powers. We likely have 3 wolves out of 9 right?

In which the word "likely" is pretty important. It's very different from "are there 3 wolves out of 9".

Why would I ask a meta question about the number of wolves in my second post early game if I am a wolf? Clearly I missed most of the end of the set up discussion otherwise I wouldn't have shown up on the 6th page of the actual game and not posted anywhere on the forums in between then.

Read all of my play from last game. This is the kind of thing I do - am just a little less considered in posting than the rest of you guys. Don't think it gives me a town lean, but don't think it should tip towards wolf either.

As a wolf you know there are two wolves, and everyone knows the wolves know how many wolves there are. So because you're asking it you're not a wolf. My first reaction to your 3 wolves comment was that you were trying to do just that. And my main point is that you're still avoiding novice's question even though it's clearly a reasonable one.

So your conclusions are that Matt is engaged because he posted 3 times (once to post a tally) ? And both Lewwyn and I are a bit off, yet Lewwyn gets the "RL might be different from last time" card and I don't ? You vote for me and join the wagon but already gave yourself an out by saying it could just be my style. 3 wolves comment is strange as hell, it was mentioned in the game setup that if there wasn't enough players a 2 wolves 7 towns setup would be good enough.

And "way too defensive" is just ridiculous. I've got 4 votes on me, some for no reason like yours, how am I supposed to not be defensive ?

re: Matt. At the point I was at he had a great contribution and seemed to think it through. He was first on Bob and, although ultimately a bad choice, gave his reasons and stuck with his guns.

re: Lewwyn.. I gave him a pass. He turned out to be town when killed. He felt a little off but less so than you. Also I was pretty impressed last game with Lewwyn and him essentially having the winning plays for town and want him around to see what he thinks (clearly the wolves share this opinion).

re: your defence: This is a good point, you should have been on the defence and you were at the end of the day. Didn't find it persuasive and ultimately you got lucky (or zak is your scum buddy - but I think you two as a pair is unlikely)

Ultimately, your initial posts were too convivial (see below). You then didn't really address (and I agree it is hard to do so) the questions raised by Zak. Clearly Rowain wasn't impressed either, and I thought (and still think) you are the best case for scum due to (by your own later admission) weak defence posts.

But... But... But I was asleep ! And then nothing happened for 3 hours ! But yeah this is a 9 player game so sliding along isn't really an option, it's far easier to track 8 people's contributions than 18.

Novice is being very active for now but I've yet to play enough games with him to know how to interpret that. Zak handing out town points sounded odd to me too Rowain.

Almost 24h in, 3 people missing (Gazglum said he'd be away today), only events are Zak's town lean stuff and novice's activity and comments about role PMs and stuff, being pretty enthusiastic about everything. About the former, baiting in your first posts is not a bad way to start the day for town and I'd be willing to give Zak a tiny town lean on that. About the latter Zak says novice wouldn't be enjoying himself so much if he was scum, do the other vets agree ?

What you call Matt's great contribution I call a whole lot of nothing. About my D1 posts I stated that I may have been a bit different from before because I had an exam a few hours later. Especially the last post I did before I left for said exam, which is the precise post I'm being voted on. Does that make you change your mind ?

I fail to see how my posts were too convivial. At the beginning of D1 you're trying not to be bored, I was accused of lurking in a funny manner so I answered that way. Also I was kind of trying to start a discussion about novice's early game to get out of the early day void (made even worse by the fact that only 6 people had posted), except no one wanted to have such a discussion.