WW39. Escape from the Congo.

[Shadeun]

We should still keep discussing who the scum are in the event that he is innocent, though. Ideally he feels better and makes a convincing comeback.

100% agree. Matt, you seem to be having a tough time and I honestly hope you feel better. Doubt waking up to a heap of votes will help but really want your input and to get something down on this game. Whatever happens, your personal life and mental state are much more important than a game.

Despite this: I think, strategically, that we can't risk scum matt and that we are better making the safe play for a win here. We can then go to other pairs amongst those with more on record. However, the counter argument (and I'm open to being convinced) is that the only path to victory is to gun for a scum lean today and see how it goes (or maybe someone is super confident here... clearly rowain, zak & adrien are not hugely confident).

Novice: I've given you a heap of leeway with my comments and certainly feel you are town still. How about letting us know more of what you think here?

I think its perhaps notable that since I've switched off AdrienIer he has dialed back the posting (scummy, feeling safer now) but Rowain is still playing a hugely different game to usual. Also, maybe AdrienIer just relaxed after playing defence for many many hours. So: Matt for now and then Rowain and AdrienIer (but not together) are my leans. I think this is the right process to try and hit one scum and then win in the late game. By this I mean max(Town Win) w.r.t. What Shadeun Knows.

[AdrienIer]

Also, maybe AdrienIer just relaxed after playing defence for many many hours.

This. I've been following with interest but without Matt this day is not very useful. What's annoying me right now is that you sound more and more like last game when you were town. Which might make you come down to Zak's level on my scum list (he's currently around Rowain in tier two behind Matt and you in tier one)

[Rowain]

Why does Zak + Matt not work "in that regard" and Zak + (say) Gaz works?

Because I highly doubt scum zak would switch to lynch Bob making the deciding vote when his scumbuddy Matt has been sitting on Bob all day. novice+zak is different in that regard.

On that basis: why not Matt now?

One reason: He is sick today and can't play currently. So voting him with lots of hours before lynch is rather pointless.
Hopefully he gets better and can start to talk else it might really become necessary to lynch him.

[novice]

I've been watching rapid chess this evening, that's why you're talking to yourself, Shadeun. Nice results for Norway, but the rules allowed some dirty tricks, unfortunately, and the results mattered too much for the players to refrain from using them.

Anyway like I said earlier I'm not really sure what's going on. My problem is I have too many town reads.
* Gazglum from good case building on Rowain
* Rowain from levelheaded replies
* Zak from activity/content
* Shadeun acts the role of unsupported townie. The people suspecting him - do you really think he's faking not knowing the number of wolves? When questioned on it he seemed to miss the point and thought he was being accused of being scum on the basis of knowing that there are three wolves, which only scum would know.
* Adrien from activity and sticking his neck out

I think Shadeun and Zakalwe are my strongest town leans, fwiw. But obviously my towndar is miscalibrated.

Zak, why do you suspect Adrien? Rowain, why do you lean town on him?

[novice]

Since everybody has switched to discussing scum pairs I guess I will do the same. I think AdrienIer + Novice makes a lot of sense holistically speaking, closely followed by AdrienIer + Gazglum. Maybe AdrienIer + Shadeun works too, but I'm not getting scum vibes from Shadeun today.

Does it make sense, holistically, though? People were trying to save Adrien, but Adrien wasn't really trying to be saved.

If AdrienIer flips innocent then I would likely turn back to Rowain and Shadeun. Gazglum and Novice could still be scum, but I mainly suspect them as AdrienIer's buddy.

People are pointing out consequences of Adrien being town and Adrien being scum. Maybe we should turn it around and asses the likelihood of the consequences, and determine Adrien's alignment from that.

[Jabbz]

18h45m till deadline.

Tally as of post 195:

4 votes: Mattimeo (Gazglum, AdrienIer, novice, Shadeun)
1 votes: AdrienIer (zakalwe)
1 votes: Shadeun (Rowain)

Voting history:

Mattimeo

Mattimeo

AdrienIer

AdrienIer

Mattimeo

Shadeun

Mattimeo

[Mattimeo]

" Where I scum I would totally do xy". would be a rather strange way to play scum don't you think?

I agree it would be a strange way to play scum!

Not really. Pretty sure I've used it more when I've been scum than otherwise.

But then, I generally prefer scum. Or a power role where I feel I can actually do something. Think one of the reasons I'm not really feeling this game is that it's mountainous, which definitely wasn't claimed when I signed up.


Now, can we just come back to:

It's true that I held you while they beat the hell out of you. Sorry Bob. On the other hand thanks to Zak's good refreshing skills I'm still alive. Now I'll just leave that here :

[...]
Bob votes zak for "for pretending like anyone would have actually cared that he "faked a posting restriction"". And yet, the only person who's read anything off that is Bob. Seems to me, wanting to kill off a reasonably strong player and scrabbling for an actual justification to do so. Also, jumping on an established wagon - his vote brought zak up to 3, clear leader. Not liking that play at all.
[...]
Bobchillingworth

If Bob does die for his earlier message and ends up town I'll remember this.

"now that I've switched last minute to ensure Bob dies, let's everyone recall my previous statement that x other person should be implicated if Bob flips town".

And then, the night kill on Lewwyn. The one who, during the night, said

If Adrien is scum its more likely that Zak is scum, but if Adrien is village then Zak is most likely town. Scum Zak won't switch over at the end unless Adrien is scum. But don't think that Zak wouldn't switch to save his scumbuddy in an obvious move. In a game with such low numbers, scum have to risk it a bit because the loss of just one scum member is devastating.

That last sentence is really telling. Scum do have to risk it with such small numbers. They need to make obvious plays, and hope they play off. And it really looks like they are. Zak is setting up nicely to emulate Lewwyn (his scumbuddy at the time) in WW21 - sit on his buddy all day, every day, merely to switch off to the lynch target right at the end. Which won it for them then, so it's proven to work, if done right.


Defence-wise, there's not all that much for me to actually argue against.
Gaz's case appears to be "Matt is potential scum whether or not Adrien is guilty". Note, merely potential. One of three options, in both instances. So he goes for me. And yet, hasn't made any comment at all on my response to the question he directly asked me, even though he's been around.
Adrien, notably, just follows Gazglum, despite stating a preference for Shadeun. Not interested in setting up a competing wagon especially with previous tendencies (and following votes) making it look like whatever wagon on a town forms will be competing against the one on him.
Novice doesn't give much reasoning, other than the apparent "let's pick an existing wagon".
Shadeun flips back to me 'cause I'm lurking.

But yeah. AdrienIer and Zak are pretty much my suspects here. Only two scum, and a mountainous game. You have to play aggressive. And it really looks like they're just using a tactic that's been proven to work (while killing off the one who used it, no less).

[Rowain]

@Matt
Why not going after zakalwe then?

[zakalwe]

I was about to ask the same thing.

[zakalwe]

Reasons to suspect AdrienIer:
- Illogical defense of Bob/attack on Mattimeo. He says the Zak wagon was weak, according to himself. Why assume that Bob shared that view? Why would Bob join a wagon that he viewed as weak, no matter his alignment?
- Passive end of day one, despite allegedly suspecting all his voters.
- Not overly compelling push against Shadeun today.

The rest is mostly bullshit, I guess.