[PB25 Spoiler] General Flauros leads the Creole Calabim

[GermanJoey]

T126.

Elkad dry whipped like every single city he had, yikes. Such is the disadvantage of going first in the turn timer, alas. Still, one down and two to go, as he actually has 3 cities on the island, not two. I lost one horcher taking the first city, but killed two axes and an archer. I'll try to take that second one in 2 turns, once my WE waddles up. The third city is empty right now, although I'm sure we'll see something there next turn when he whips.




I also settled on the island near Dunkin' Donuts and got to work chopping an Ikhanda.

[GermanJoey]

I quickly did the calculation for whether 5 more turns of Bureau would be better than going straight through Vassalage, and they're about the same... the calculation was something like this:

5*floor(1.25*0.5*68 - 1.1*(14*0.7 + 4)) - (floor(1196/1.2) - floor(1196/1.4))

But then just now I realized that I won't have enough GA turns left to two swaps, and I don't make enough bpt to get Vassalage in 2. ;[ If only I had done this calculation last turn, arrgh.... guess I just gotta go straight for CS. yare yare daze...

edit: Ah! Another pair of scientists can get me there!

[GermanJoey]

I took the second city off Elkad this turn:







The WE decent, but then my axe and initial chariot whiffed almost completely. The dice rolls leaned towards me overall in the end though, including a 5.5 hp horcher flawlessly winning a battle at 48% odds. This was made up for later when my trireme was flawlessly defeated attacking one of Elkad's at 33% odds. =/ I'll be in position to attack the last island city in 2 turns... Elkad's been bringing some reinforcements over by boat, so I might not be able to attack. He had two archers and a shock spear there this turn... you figure one more from the whip, and then whatever he can bring by boat. I'll have 10 attackers - 5 swords, 3 horchers (one at like 2.5/6 hp tho), a shock impi, and a chariot.

Donovan napped Elkad and Elkad appears to be on tilt, which is bad. He's spent like two full 100% turns of EP on me:



And also sent this small stack my way:



I have this to defend:



The two longbow builds are two-tuners, and I'll also have an additional horcher finishing this turn in TN. So, not a problem unless he has more in the fog (unlikely) or Donovan jumps in too. What I think Elkad wants to do here is to land on that jungle tile this turn, hoping that I'll stuff units in Creole Osceola, and then swing southeastward onto that jungle hill. So, what I'll need to do is either garrison that hill with a few units, to make it super expensive to take, or else attack out onto the jungle tile next turn. I sent my first GG up here just in case things go sour.

At any rate, I need an exit strategy from this war ASAP. Hopefully wiping his attacking stack will be enough... I'd also be willing to pay him if I thought that would actually work. (it wouldn't, not with the additional economic losses he's inflicted on himself through the ep slider) I need out of this war because HAK continues to refuse OB offers, so the chances of him stupidly attacking me with the bulk of his forces over this one stupid city and then getting hit from behind by Commodore are rapidly approaching 100%.



I was hoping to revolt into Vassalage this turn, but unfortunately I revolted into caste 4 turns ago. That was a mistake for sure... I remember I revolted one turn late because I wanted to make one additional whip somewhere, without remembering that I needed to revolt on that particular turn because of the anarchy timer. Well, crap. I asked for a loan from Borsche; with that, I can get CS in 2 turns and revolt then. I might actually revolt back into slavery, if the situation remains sour with Elkad. Well, we'll see.

The ToZ and TGL finished this turn. A GS for a capital academy will be ready in 4-5 turns, depending on how many hammers I need that city to produce next turn.

[GermanJoey]

T129.

Weird look into the mind of Elkad. Obviously, this is his way of saying "FUCK YOU!" and not some real piece of diplo but what's weird here is how oddly constrained it is, just a few cities and half of my gold? Uh, ok? Most people would demand all cities and all money if they just wanted to send the finger. I sent him back white peace, up to him whether he wants to take it or not. I'm not scared of his attack but I'd rather keep my GG more than I'd want to take his island city.




He's sending EVERYTHING he has at me... I counted 19 hitters (which sounds like a lot but that includes multiple archers and chariots) and 4 cats heading towards the Mids, 2 turns away. I have 10 defenders and 5 cats in range next turn, plus an additional two longbows popping out next turn. I can also dry whip next turn when I switch into CS+slavery. I can use my GG to make a pair of super-defender longbows if necessary, although I had hoped to plant him in the ToZ city for triple-upgrade Knights.

HAK sent this + an open borders offer, which seems like he's proposing that we ally against Commodore. DUH, GOOD IDEA. I don't trust him any farther than I can throw my own ass. However, I tried to signal to him that Commodore is 1 turn from Engineering and thus he should watch out on that border. (AND STAY AWAY FROM ME)

[GermanJoey]

No peace back from Elkad, hmm. Well, I guess I need to wipe his stack if I ever hope to have peace. It seems I'll have to deal with 6 units to take the last island city, assuming another pops out at EOT, so that's probably not happening either.

[GermanJoey]

If there's just the 5 units next turn, I simmed that I have about a 60% chance to take the city... it all depends on how well the swords do on the first few fights. Of course, this means that I'm probably boned.

[Tsargon]

How often do you take big risky fights like that, or do you always generally stay in the 80-90% bracket?

[GermanJoey]

Ideally you should try to plan to be in the sure-win bracket. I planned for that here, but did not anticipate Elkad having such a large navy, and so its come down to this. Now I have to evaluate the risk/reward scenario. The risk is that I lose, like, 6-7 units or so while feeding XP, which is bad, but the reward is pretty big too, tons of XP for myself, full control of the island and more safety for my other two conquests, and LAND, lots of it. So, it was worth the risk to me, and it ended up paying off! It was a real nail-biter, where I alternated low-odds wins and flawless losses to eventually come out on top, with one unit to spare:







On the mainland, Elkad collected his stack (a mistake IMHO) and made a mistake of trying to fork with 4 chariots. Um, I have Impis d00d. Easy pickins...




I got one last turn too, so that's five less units he has to absorb collateral. He can move adjacent to the city next turn, at which point I believe I'll attack out... we each have 18 hitters and 5 cats on hand, although I think my hitters are stronger. I left 5 units on the junglehill to deny him that opportunity to fork... if he wants to take that, he'll need to waste at least a couple of cats and probably a few hitters on top of that, plus split his stack. I'll shred him, in that case.

I actually offered him peace this turn for 75g (my payment). The reason is that I'll be able to switch into CS this turn without needing slavery... as it stands, I'm delaying the revolution a turn just in case. I'll also be able to re-optimize my tiles. As you can see, in order to get the trireme done this turn (before he can rip up nets) and longbows done in 2 turns, I am working shitloads of unimproved tiles in my north.







I don't expect him to take it, which is fine (need moar GG XP!!) as long as nobody else attacks me. Even if things go well, I'm not sure what to do next... Gavagai is recovering and has a lot of land, Borsche is down to 4 cities and probably dead very soon, HAK has 18 cities and is probably the real second place civ right now (his economy is really strong too, he was gold-saving at nearly 200gpt a few turns ago IIRC) and will likely declare war on me any turn now, and Commodore is STILL ahead on tech after 8 turns of GA. Can I win hard enough to push towards Elkad's capital? Would be nice, but I doubt it...

[GermanJoey]

I had a long drive tonight and had a "what the fuck was I thinking" moment when I really thought about caste v. slavery. Like, one hand, yes, I want to squeeze out every last bit of efficiency from my empire, and caste would be good for that, but... I'm like, insanely vulnerable and I have no allies in-game. I need to get the whip back and start whipping hard. I also have no hope of taking anything from Borsche... my best option down there is to just try to make friends with Gavagai and Donovan (how?) and hope I can squeeze out some sort of major military tech before I get truly dog-piled.

I simmed out that Elkad should get wrecked next turn, so maybe he'll take a white peace and I can concentrate on my other problems.

[GermanJoey]

Lurkers, if anyone is reading, I'm going to propose a city trade next turn, my city of Burning Spears (my stone city) for HAK's city of Bedazzled (his stone city, on the island) + 200g. (because Burning Spears has way more infrastructure, and also is an insanely better city in general) In the setup for this game, we said that we could propose "real" city trades, so I just want to clear this with y'all.

My reasoning for this, as painful is at is, is that I need to focus. With this move, I hope to re-focus HAK (who I don't trust at all b/c of Mindy) away from me towards Gavagai and Commodore, the former because I simply can't deal with the south right now, and the latter because he's still the runaway. I'm sure I'll regret this in the Ren era when HAK boats my capital out of the fog, but this is what I think I need right now. This means I'll also need to back-fill Alpha in order to be able to gift Gavagai muskets if HAK invades him with Landsknechts, which are a ridiculously strong UU against a backwards opponent. The big advantage for me here is that I can then ship out the 8 units I have garrisoning the city to reinforce my island (which is feeling a bit light right now) so that I can push onwards towards Elkad, who I'm thinking won't take white peace even if I wipe his land stack because of his largish navy. (4 triremes and a galley I saw, when I logged in last night to see if he accepted my earlier treaty).