Ah I also realized that Carthage, Portugal, Babylon, and the Ottomans settled on T1, and France on T2, so they could still be going after Agriculture. Certainly possible that the mapmaker gave everyone rice.
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RPB3 SPOILERS Bismarck of India (regoarrarr, darrelljs, sooooo, sunrise089)
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Rowain Wrote:Thansk for your detailed write-up :-) You're welcome - I enjoy this kind of stuff and that's why I wanted to try and concentrate solely on it for this game. Most of the time I am writing it up as I try to figure things out, so sometiems you can see my thinking process and watch me auto-correct my stupidity on the fly. Hopefully that can be instructive in and of itself. I have a few more things that I am working on that should be posted before too terribly long darrelljs Wrote:My head is spinning from all the info. I know you are probably doing more work than the rest of us combined times ten, but would it be a lot of trouble to have some kind of summary sticked on post #1? Is this from the man who mocked my spreadsheet and said he would never look at it?  The spreadsheet has the info summarized pretty well. I will be posting it before too long into this thread to allow anyone (lurkers) to look at it as well. If you want any more summarization let me konw
Okay, so as I continue to reply to myself (and thread-spam, which is one of my primary roles on this team!!
Do you guys realize that we're in 3rd, and only 1 post ahead of Whosit?!?!), there are a few other demographics things to investigate.We've covered soldier points, and land area, population and techs. Let's see if we can figure out anything from happiness and health? Normally those aren't very useful, but we may be able to tell some things about capital's river and forest. We'll start with happiness. We would expect most civs to start with a happiness rate of 83%, which is 5 happies / (5 happies + 1 unhappy from pop). The exception would be our charismatic leaders who should have 85 (6/7). After reviewing the screenshots, this appears to be the case. We have 15 civs with 83 and 2 with 85. So this hasn't really been that useful. It might be somewhat useful to know as people grow, or hook up happy resources, which could potentially be as early as T17 or so. Though if someone gets gold or grassland gems and we got jungle silver, I am NOT going to be amused Okay so on to health. Our life expectancy is 91, which is 11 health vs. 1 unhealthy (11/12 = 91.66666). We get 2 from difficulty, 2 from expansive, 2 from river, 5 from forests (10 forests) and the 1 jungle loses us anything. ![[Image: civ4screenshot0045.jpg]](http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/9438/civ4screenshot0045.jpg) So when Swiss of Mali settled (first), they had an 85% life expectancy, which is 6 health. So either 8 forests, or 4 forests and a river. Next was Krill, who had 88, which is 8 health. So likely 8 forests and a river, since he is not Expansive. Next came Korea, who had a 90 life expectancy, which is annoyingly either 9 OR 10 (10/11 = 90.90909) health. Korea is expansive, but still probably on a river, and with 6-8 forests (or 10-12 forests w/o river). Next we had Aztecs, Maya, and Byzantium settling. None of them are Expansive, and the global health count went from 16 ((85+88+90) / 16) to 32. 32 can signify a total of 512 to 527. So the 3 of them have a total from 249 to 264. From the T3 demogs, the worst possible is 85, since that was the global low once everyone had settled. 85 * 3 is 255. So I'd say maybe 85, 85 and 87 At this point we can't really tell much about the remaining civs, since there is much rounding error. A few things that we can tell. Dim (HRE) also have 11 health, so their capital is equal to ours with a river, Expansive and 10 (or 11) forests. The final numbers after everyone settled is max of 91 (at least us and HRE), average of 88, min of 85 and us in position 2. Average of 88 means a global total of 1408-1423. Hmm we might be able to tell something from when people grow, or at least the first to grow (since their health will drop). T8 is our first growth - the Incans to size 2, and the worst health drops to 83. They now have 2 unhealthy from their 2 pop, so they also have 10 health (10/12 = 83.333). T10 ruff of Azteca grew, and worst health became 77, so ruff has 7 health (7/9) So the starting capital healths we KNOW, besides our own 11. HRE - 11 (91) Inca - 10 (90) Mali - 6 (85) Egypt - 8 (88) Korea - 9/10 (90) Aztecs - 7 (87) 10 unknown but nobody less than 6 (85). I have updated the general info tab of the spreadsheet with this info
Okay so let's see what we can figure out about GNP. I don't know what we might be able to tell - early on we could take a guess as to whether or not some of the early civs were researching first-row (non-prereq) techs or not, but gave that up with once the averaging got too crazy.
So maybe now that we know the tiebreaker rules we might be able to do a bit better. But first, a few definitions. From the consummate thread on the matter: Quote:In BTS the GNP is not just about the commerce. The GNP also includes the beakers, culture and espionage points produced in each turn. All these are calculated with the effects of improvements taken into account. Therefore the GNP calculation is; Okay so we know that we get 8 commerce, 4 EPs, and 2 culture from the palace. Also 1 commerce from the city center and 1 "free" beaker. So that's 16 GNP right there. Additionally you could get 2 from being Creative (Portugal, Babylon, England, Rome, Ottomans in this game), 2 for researching a non-first row tech (you get 20% which at this point equals 2 extra beakers for knowing 1 pre-req), and 1 if the tile that you're working has a commerce (like a river flood plains or forest silks). So: 16 is the base, working a first row tech and a non-commerce tile 17 first row tech, working a commerce tile 18 Creative OR non-Creative researching a pre-req tech, working a non-commerce tile 19 Creative OR non-Creative researching a pre-req tech, working a commerce tile 20 Creative AND researching a pre-req tech, working a non-commerce tile 21 Creative AND researching a pre-req tech, working a commerce tile So now we re-examine in settling order, also taking into account what we know about the techs that some folks were researching. We also know (think?) that anyone who was researching a starting tech should have already completed it. The only one that couldn't might be France who settled T2, but conveniently enough, they start with Ag / Wheel, which are the 2 most expensive starting techs! We're going to ignore people potentially switching techs, which might happen but we can't really note. Okay so Swiss of Mali was first and had a 17 GNP, which jives with them discovering Agriculture on T10. Krill of Egypt was next, and it still shows a max of 17 GNP. But if he was researching a starting tech, he should have discovered it by now, so not sure here. I certainly wouldn't put it past him to do some sort of shuffling or delaying of techs he doesn't need yet, just to mess with folks like me. Lobo of Korea is next and has a GNP of 19. That would indicate a pre-req tech, since they are not Creative, but again, we know they did Agriculture first. Certainly possible that they changed, but if this keeps happening it is going to make things awful difficult to try and track. I'll give it a few more tries. Can't figure out too much till we settle (9th). We have a GNP of 17, originally (while we were working the 2/1/1 tile till borders popped), and are listed as 7th, which means only one civ behind us. Dazed and Exploit settle, and are both ahead of us. Exploit is behind us in tiebreaker, so he must be researching a non-prereq tech, which makes sense as he has not finished anything as of T11. When TANKs settle, we have swapped to a GNP of 19 (by switching our research to Bronze Working, a tech that has a pre-req), and are listed as 4th. We'd be behind Korea, and Rome, and Egypt if he swapped to pre-req by now as it appears he has done. England is Creative but is behind us and was researching Agriculture, so we'd be ahead of them on tiebreaker. Babylon settles next (now on T1), and we drop to 5th. They are Creative and must be doing a pre-req tech. After Carthage and Portugal both settle, we have dropped to 6th, which must be Portugal also due to Creative and pre-req tech. Ottomans settled next and they are Creative and ahead of us, so as expected we drop to 7th. Can't tell if it's due to them being on a pre-req tech or just beating us on tiebreakers, though at this point we guess pre-req tech since they haven't discovered a tech yet. Nothing new till T5, when we swap tiles and therefore get the incredibly odd GNP of 18, dropping from 7th to 8th. At this point, all 5 Creative civs would be ahead of us, as well as anyone that was on a pre-req tech and working a commerce tile. So that's some info but not a whole lot of it is useful IMO
Okay then a break from the boring demographic information to talk to you about
[SIZE="6"]WAR!!!  [/SIZE]Our sources have learned that it appears that war has been declared. Still a little hazy on what and who exactly, but it is believed the recent reload request is due to this war. Krill's posting in the email thread about wanting to move last on a particular turn is particularly interesting and paints him as potentially one of the parties. Faithful demographic readers who waded through all my jibber-jabber will know that someone lost a warrior on T10 (or T9 and we just didn't get a pic till T10). Originally I thought it would be to a lion or other barb animal but it's certainly possible that someone took a shot at a passing warrior.
Okay enough excitement - back to the boring demographic information. Not sure what is going to happen with the reload, but it shouldn't matter for score and power increases. 2 techs were researched this past turn - by Carthage and ruff of the Aztecs.
Demographic information - soldier count went down 2000 again this turn, so somebody (else) lost a warrior. Undoubtedly part of this ongoing war. We've gone up from 13th to 12th in soldier count. Also the minimum soldier count went down to 2000, so that indicates that it was a civ that had 4000 soldier points before, and was ahead of us in the tiebreaker. So now they are at 2000, and even though they are ahead of us in the tiebreaker, we beat them on raw power count. That means it has to be Rome, who is the only civ that fits that category. It also makes sense that someone starting next to Aggressive Rome might feel the need to choke. I also noted that Buddhism was founded this turn, so since Carthage starts with Fishing and Mining, it looks like Ruff has researched Meditation and founded Buddhism. Meditation is 144 beakers, so we can probably assume that ruff worked a commerce tile, getting 11 * 1.2 = 13 beakers, which is 143 beakers through T11, and got the missing beaker by working another commerce tile when his capital grew on T10. Carthage settled on T1, so we can say that they did Agriculture. regoarrarr Wrote:16 is the base, working a first row tech and a non-commerce tile The 20% bonus is for each prerequisite, so +2 more GNP if a civ is researching a tech for which two "arrow" prereqs are known. The possible cases in the early game are Agriculture and Hunting -> Animal Husbandry, or Mysticism and Mining -> Masonry. |
