Hearthstone

[Kuro]

On the topic of the Priest deck, the late game is very strong and the midgame is good, but I'm worried by the severe lack of early game, especially if your opponent's get a 3 HP minion out because Argent Horserider has trouble trading efficiently (It's 1-for-1 but loses tempo and potential face damage, and doesn't necessarily work if they have a ping). Loot Hoarder, Kobold Geomancer etc also have issue here. Voodoo Doctor is fairly bad here (I would have gone with the Ice Rager), but it is at least an early drop.

This deck is high variance because it's basically "how much will I draw my meager early game". I would personally guess 4-5 wins on average.

[uberfish]

pick 23: Croc over loot hoarder (more likely to stick)
pick 25: Raptor over dwarf/panther

This is a case where HA is off because these picks are not close at all. The deck desperately needs 2 drops especially since it has early buffs. I'd pick up the argent squire at 29 too given the actual picks. There is too much stuff that only works when you have minions on the board.

[v8mark]

I'll look at the deck soon, since I am making food and watching the NFL, but think you'd ever want to do a co-op Arena? (Maybe we could rope Terror/v8 into it?) It might help you if you're unsatisfied with your runs.

I don't need much roping in to do a co-op Arena run :D as I said earlier in the thread, it's my favourite way of all to play Hearthstone. It's easy to do - only the draft is slightly awkward as there's no draft spectator mode, so you'd have to tell us what picks you're offered. For the play itself, spectator mode allows us to follow along in real time and make suggestions/discuss the best move. We tend to use voicecomms - TeamSpeak tends to work best.

[v8mark]

pick 23: Croc over loot hoarder (more likely to stick)
pick 25: Raptor over dwarf/panther

This is a case where HA is off because these picks are not close at all. The deck desperately needs 2 drops especially since it has early buffs. I'd pick up the argent squire at 29 too given the actual picks. There is too much stuff that only works when you have minions on the board.

Agreed on the first, but not on the second. Dwarf is a significant enough upgrade in terms of quality over Raptor that I'd take it in nearly all cases. In this specific case I think Raptor is defensible, but I'd take the Dwarf (I think HA has it about right in terms of value). The deck is right on the edge in terms of numbers of two-drops... SWP can function as a two-drop when you're behind on the board, and there's plenty of meat in the deck at the 3 and 4 slot to make up any shortfall early. An extra 2 would be useful but not essential IMO.

I definitely agree on the Argent Squire. SHR is bad in Priest because you don't want to be hero powering until the lategame (unless you're really far ahead on the board)! Squire is generally undervalued, particularly in classes without a ping, and it smooths the early curve out a lot.

Overall this deck is much better, I think. Plenty of removal, plenty of high tempo/initiative plays in the mid-game (Dwarf, Bomb Lobber, Frost Ele) and the win conditions are more clearly defined (Chromaggus, Kraken, Velen's etc). The only thing it really lacks that would make it a lot better is a Holy Nova.

But... it's also a Priest, which is a much weaker class than Druid.

Also, some context: 4 wins is not a terrible Arena run! That's a 57% win rate. Don't be too disappointed. With the powerful decks you can aim for more, but there's a lot of variance in HS Arena.

[uberfish]

There's already PW:S, Velen's Chosen, Shattered Sun, and 1 dwarf by pick 25, all of which scream that they want an early drop to buff. On top of that it's priest, which can't use its hero power unless it has the board. The deck's already going to do well if it has stuff on the board. It should try to make sure it consistently has the early drops to do so.

[Kuro]

pick 23: Croc over loot hoarder (more likely to stick)
pick 25: Raptor over dwarf/panther

This is a case where HA is off because these picks are not close at all. The deck desperately needs 2 drops especially since it has early buffs. I'd pick up the argent squire at 29 too given the actual picks. There is too much stuff that only works when you have minions on the board.

Agreed on the first, but not on the second. Dwarf is a significant enough upgrade in terms of quality over Raptor that I'd take it in nearly all cases. In this specific case I think Raptor is defensible, but I'd take the Dwarf (I think HA has it about right in terms of value). The deck is right on the edge in terms of numbers of two-drops... SWP can function as a two-drop when you're behind on the board, and there's plenty of meat in the deck at the 3 and 4 slot to make up any shortfall early. An extra 2 would be useful but not essential IMO.

I definitely agree on the Argent Squire. SHR is bad in Priest because you don't want to be hero powering until the lategame (unless you're really far ahead on the board)! Squire is generally undervalued, particularly in classes without a ping, and it smooths the early curve out a lot.

Overall this deck is much better, I think. Plenty of removal, plenty of high tempo/initiative plays in the mid-game (Dwarf, Bomb Lobber, Frost Ele) and the win conditions are more clearly defined (Chromaggus, Kraken, Velen's etc). The only thing it really lacks that would make it a lot better is a Holy Nova.

But... it's also a Priest, which is a much weaker class than Druid.

Also, some context: 4 wins is not a terrible Arena run! That's a 57% win rate. Don't be too disappointed. With the powerful decks you can aim for more, but there's a lot of variance in HS Arena.

Personally I think this deck's overall quality is worse than the Druid one, but the potent late game win conditions (Chromaggus, Kraken, etc) mean it has high variance.

I probably would have also taken Dwarf, mostly because I find it hard to turn down a lot of the time, but the Crocolisk over Loot Hoarder is good. 4 wins is about average, so yeah, I mean it was a deck I'd only predict to go 5-6 on the Drood one so it's well within variance. I'd also say it is arguable Raptor is better than Dwarf here.

Since I usually post my better runs, have a look at me going 0-3 with a surprising Paladin deck. Bad opening hand game 1, game 2 was just frustrating "opponent has perfect answers for everything", Game 3 I just got a bit out-tempo'd and he managed to land a KILLER Cult Master.

[v8mark]

There's already PW:S, Velen's Chosen, Shattered Sun, and 1 dwarf by pick 25, all of which scream that they want an early drop to buff. On top of that it's priest, which can't use its hero power unless it has the board. The deck's already going to do well if it has stuff on the board. It should try to make sure it consistently has the early drops to do so.

That's true - both the general point about priests and the specific point about the buff cards in the deck. There are six early-game drops in total, two (three?) of which are low quality and not really fit for purpose, so shoring up the early game might well matter enough of the time to make it worth picking a vanilla 2 over a better card.

However - I also think that the deck isn't really a tempo deck, and playing from behind isn't necessarily a huge problem for it given that it has such high-quality single target removal. But ofc you'd rather be ahead than behind, especially with buff cards in hand...

I think I'd still hold the position that although the deck needs 2s much more than 4s, Dwarf is enough of a better card than Raptor to make it a close call, and on balance I'd probably take the Dwarf. I still think HA having it as a toss-up is broadly about right.

[v8mark]

Personally I think this deck's overall quality is worse than the Druid one, but the potent late game win conditions (Chromaggus, Kraken, etc) mean it has high variance.

Yeah, I should clarify - I think it's a more well-constructed deck in a worse class with slightly worse cards, so the difference comes out in the wash. I think I'd hold to the prediction of 5ish wins for it.

[Kuro]

Personally I think this deck's overall quality is worse than the Druid one, but the potent late game win conditions (Chromaggus, Kraken, etc) mean it has high variance.

Yeah, I should clarify - I think it's a more well-constructed deck in a worse class with slightly worse cards, so the difference comes out in the wash. I think I'd hold to the prediction of 5ish wins for it.

I suppose more what I meant to say is I think the overall quality is worse compared to other Priest Arenas.

[v8mark]

Since I usually post my better runs, have a look at me going 0-3 with a surprising Paladin deck. Bad opening hand game 1, game 2 was just frustrating "opponent has perfect answers for everything", Game 3 I just got a bit out-tempo'd and he managed to land a KILLER Cult Master.

I think you were very unlucky to go 0-3 with that. Having said that you made some really curious drafting decisions. It seems like you went value over tempo a little too much. I think I agree with HA every time you disagreed with it, except for the Ravenholdt pick. The picks I disagree with are Crusader over Seal of Champions, Blackwing over Panther, Gnomish over Annoy-o-Tron, Solemn Vigil over BoK. (card draw is bad in this deck - it's already heavy!)

Edit: this sounded too harsh, I didn't mean it for it to be!