I start thinking that idea to attack DZ might be really better than going all in to BGN. DZ got Steel but his power graph was not growing from that point. Let's take a look at it:
Demographics show that the worst power is 515K and it can be Donovan. He has constructed Oxford and was busy at building universties. Right now we can expect that he is making all military and ships but isnt it late? Also he cant switch into Nationhood and he has just 9 cities so far. He has no Factories, no Infantry, not even Railroad yet.
Returning to the question where to take rifles:
We have 2 rifles standing in Donkeys, 1 in Gesse (0 unhappy from drafts!) and 1 in Ducks. I believe we are not going to be attacked there and we can replace them with catapults and draft once more. Also those cities will be used for building navy. New city we plant on the island doesnt demand any defenders, while Goldfish does, so we can use those 2 rifles in our attack. That's 9 rifles. I think it is enough for the begining. We will take more from Chameleons and Goldfish after we start. Core needs to be focused on Cavalry and it must be big to put specialists once we say we are satisfied with how our attack is going. Though we can still draft Rabbit and Lhamas once, but I am not sure it is reasonable. Military advisor says we have 34 rifles and I cant explain that we still cant share 10 for attack.
The timing as I see it is the following:
- T310 we plant city on island and arrange hammers to get 20% culture in 1 turn (I checked it is possible if we give this city workshop from Goldfish). Prebuild airships.
- T311 we cross our channel with our fleet. Whip airships.
- T312 we get into fort in position. Keep in the mind that we need 8 worker turns to finish it (T309 - 1/8, T310 - 4/8, T311 - 7/8, T312 - 8/8). Airships in position.
- T313 we capture 1-tile island and examine situation.
I hope that airships will advise us what to do. May be capturing just 2 islands is not perfect start for the war because we give him time to regroup but it is the only way I see how to push him away from the sea and open us different ways for possible attack on his core. Also by T313-314 we wont have enough galleons for serious landing, but we must solve this issue in just 2-3 turns. May be we consider walking to his front city by land.