[Spoilers] Dreylin's short visit to a late Era

[Dreylin]

t315 (IBT & research) -

Donovan threw his Cats at the stack at Staalplaat:


I think I'll promote one of the Cavs as a Medic while we bring up some more units. No revolt though, so he must have been putting 1st turns into units before whipping next turn.

REM & BGN at peace isn't a plus for us ... forgot to check if it's a 10t or a Cease Fire.

And the stack in Nettwerk did its job:


We lost 2 Rifles & 2 Cavs and should be able to wipe his units, but we'll probably need to use the Cavs from at least one of the Galleons offshore Ant Zen (need to rename these 3 new ones).

Techs:


REM could use his Merchants to grab Fascism since he hadn't taken Steel and unlocked Railroad. But it seems Scooter has picked up Fascism as well! We're really falling behind here and need a plan to pull it back. I think it's probably time that we popped the GSpy for our GA since his usefulness is coming to an end with the age of Airships.

Nationhood saves us 36gpt, in return we get:


At max specialists configuration.

I've not moved anything yet, but I can see that Donovan completed an SotL in his Capital and an Ironclad in the Scooter border city. Our naval adventures are not over yet, but it would have been more problematic I think if they were land troops.

I think the turn is relatively straightforward so I'll probably play it later ... unless I take a few more drinks an lose competency!

[Dreylin]

t315 (intermission) -

So I went back in and took another look at the survivors at Nettwerk and concluded that we could take some level of risk and use the units in the city to take them out without bringing in the extra Cavs: the remaining Rifles were at good health and a couple of Cavs are healthy enough to take a decent hit, and we can Galleon chain in the MG to defend if needed. Meanwhile there's really only 1 Cav at decent health and the Cannon on their side.

Most of the attacks were >95% except the Rifle vs. Cannon which was ~85% and we lost. But that was the only loss, so the total exchange was 3Cats, 2Cannon, 8Cavs for 3Rifles, 2Cavs; and we still have 6 Cavs on a pair of Galleons offshore AZ.

Then I left the game to take a look at simming a potential attack on Staalplaat (didn't go well) and realised that I'd really had a bit too much to drink to continue reliably, although I did realise that the stack there needs to move S so that the Cavs can move across the river before attacking and we can bring in the next wave of reinforcements.

Not sure what to do with the Galleons at Ant Zen, though maybe my brain will kick something out overnight.

I know I've just split our turn, but the only moves I've made are around Nettwerk, so no impact on any other players (that we aren't already turnsplit with). I did run one Airship sweep from Koi into Donovan's core, since those Airships are out of range of any attack targets - the remaining 2 there should probably rebase this turn into Nettwerk.

Take a look and let me know what you think...

[OT4E]

First of all I think that Scooter is heading to tanks building all wealth/research. REM is in golden age also and their GNP are awesome. So if we delay our golden age we are in a big trouble very soon, but we need to develop a plan and align everything to the primary goal.


I reshuffled some tiles and city production to get Bio in 1 turn.

Donovan had not bad luck in battles against us which brought him GG:
47.8 % win
29.6 % win
29.6 % retreat
83.4 % win
65.8 % lost
70.6 % win
53.0 % win
29.6 % win

So he won 2 x 29.6%, but whatever. We won some 100% and we must be happy with that.
So here is Donovan's remaining visible forces:


Going to make some sims for this attack:


In the first view I think it is takeable.

[OT4E]

Just a few words about promotions. I noticed that you have promoted some cavalries with stars and I have figured out that it was not good idea. Our rifles had no promotions and it would be better for them to take hits instead of the cavalries.

It is valid for both stacks in netwerk and on the hill. Rifles are not very useful in the attack so it is better for them to take hits, no matter if they had slightly worse odds for surviving.

Sometimes it is worth to promote 1 unit anti-siege.

Returning to Staalplat. We got lucky that just a few cavalries got hit by collatherial, so I think we cant minimize loses by delaying attack. He will get 1 more infantry and probably bring GG. The only concern is to use catapults or not because their effectiveness is very low. Need to test it out.

I have run 10 tests and in each took city without problems, though attack order can depend to how attack is going. Basically when to use double star promotions or wounded units. Keep in the mind that we have 1 fresh cavalry in Chameleons.

I have to go out for a few hours now. When I return I will try to find out the best attacking order and whether we can keep catapults or need to hit with them.

With 6 cavalries we can hit his capital... I only managed to take in the half of tries, but I really tried just a few times. We need to test it better and to discuss if it is ever worth trying.

[Dreylin]

My sim was pretty crude, so I'm not surprised you're getting better results with a more accurate one. Noticed that the Cats weren't doing much after full Airship hits - we have plenty in range for the needed 9 hits. OTOH, if using a couple of Cats gives us a better chance for taking it, then we should use them now IMO.

How do you sim the damage to our units; hot seat some of his Cats against us?

We have another 4 Airships to hit his cap and the Infs just moved in so no fortify. We also have 3 3-promo Cavs in that Galleon. Not sure if we have the logistics to bring in some other units to defend this turn; his cities are spaced such that I don't think anything is in range - except perhaps if he has something loaded in the Galleon.

[OT4E]

The chances to take city are almost the same if we use catapults or not.

I use lower class units (cataphracts or musketman with some stars) as wounded or worse promoted. It is not very accurate, but it is the most reasonable precision imho. The goal for catapults is to hit the top infantry with 10% fortify then Cavalry with 2 starts (wounded or not) can attack it, so promoted Cavalry with pinch can attack infantry.

Here is the result without catapults, the number says how much Cavalry survived, stars mean I failed to take the city:
31*20*24343*42*4232*

The result with catapults:
22*633*2234353*412*6

2 Catapults bombard defenses. 3 Catapults I attacked with I promoted on first strike.

Here is the sim I used:

[Dreylin]

OK, so roughly 75% chance without, or 80% chance with. Seems like using the Cats now to preserve momentum is the way to go - we will need to queue up & bring in some more Siege to take his IW city, since we have no way to bombard otherwise. A couple of Trebs are probably in order from the core this turn.

Any more thoughts about trying for his cap as well?

[OT4E]

For cap I got the following sequence of waste/success:
0*221*3430*230*32220*421*31*0*0*33244

Attacking with less promoted Cavs first gives better result. For the first combat they have 1.29% vs 1.82 chances which is too low to be important, but for the 2nd hitter the chance can be 2 times higher just because of a single extra star. Here is what can happen after the first battle:
- 0 hits on infantry, 16.0 str left - 22.67%
- 1 hit, 13.6 str - 28.11%
- 2 hits, 11,2 str - 21,78%
- 3 hits, 8,8 str - 13,51%
- 4 hits, 6,4 str - 7,33%
- 5 hits, 4 str - 3,63%
- 6 hits 1,6 str - 1,69%
- 7 hits win - 1,29%

There is 50% chance to make just 0-1 hits and this is bad result, because Cav vs 13.6 str infantry has just ~6,5%.
While 2 hits and more are acceptable results. Cav with 2 stars and pinch has 31.5% (Cav with 1 star has just 16%).

Each time when I failed to take city first 3 Cavalries couldnt hurt one or both Infantries to 11.2 or below. It seems that it is a breaking point and a signal to stop wasting Cavalries. May be it is reasonable to try with just 1 Cav and take a look on it once again.

[Dreylin]

Hmm, seems like the odds are good enough for us to have a go. The main risk is if he has any units loaded into the Galleon that can be dropped into the Fort and retake. We also don't have sight yet on the Cav in the SW city, which might have moved within reach. We can confirm location of other units, but I think it's unlikely he has anything loaded right now, do you agree?

The alternative is that we land them 1N of the city and attack next turn. Because the SotL came IBT, he'd need to dry whip a unit in - which also take a lot of value out of the city. We can have additional units in range for amphibious attack, but I think they are all injured.

[OT4E]

My concern is his GG. It can retake city but it also can be there in the beginning of the turn with 1 whipped from scratch infantry probably autopromoted. For him it is not a big deal to whip infantry in cap from zero, he is in bureau. So if we unload we are still in complicated situation against 6 infantries. SotL being sank in the docks speaks for attacking this turn also. Or may I jam not having enough patience?

I think we can calculate exactly what else has he got by demographics. He is last in soldiers or will be last. But it ia boring. We can still raze the city if we get only last cav.