(July 5th, 2016, 22:07)Lewwyn Wrote: (July 5th, 2016, 16:54)Psillycyber Wrote: One other thing to think about: because all of the draws were true-random, we really just have to take people's word for it that they are being honest about their anonymous discards. Scum can say whatever will make them look the best or seem the most plausible, and there's no way we will ever be able to catch them in a lie. So, how much do we really gain from having everyone claim their anonymous discards? Now that I think about it, it seems like a distraction to muddy the waters and get us leaning towards falsely-clearing scum that offer plausible-sounding anonymous discard choices.
Obviously we shouldn't take anybody's claim for their anonymous discard at face value. And obviously we will never catch them in a lie this way. But I think its great! The purpose is to get people talking. You can't catch scum if they aren't put on the spot sometimes even if they are telling the truth. If everyone goes into knowing that, then it shouldn't muddy the waters. Why would people be clearing anyone. Are you arguing that we shouldn't be claiming our anonymous discards?
I now see that getting people talking has been instructive. So in all, it has been for the good. But still, my earlier point stands. It felt like those who were pushing for the anonymous discards were hyping it up to be of greater use than it really would be.
(July 6th, 2016, 04:55)Lewwyn Wrote: (July 6th, 2016, 04:40)Jkaen Wrote: Tell you what lets look at things a different way. Ignoring the people behind the choices, do you feel that a declared discard of mafia by 5 people from 12 was to be expected?
Depends entirely on the RNG. I'm not surprised if that's what you mean. There are scum and maybe they are lying about their discards, but I sincerely doubt that all scum claimed scum discards. I really think its scummy (or foolish) to focus so arbitrarily like this. What if all the scum claimed townie discards? You want to focus on scum discards but that would set our focus only on townies.
I assume that everybody is considering all the meta reasons, but I have a hard time thinking any argument that is 100% meta substantiated is being proffered with the best intentions.
I am 100% onboard with Lewwyn's last line here. This is what I'm talking about.
Now here's my Day 1 review so far:
On Gazglum: I agree with Prometheus that doctor is just about the most useful town role possible in this setup. You must have known, Gaz, that you were putting yourself in a bit of a pinch by discarding doctor. Even if you are town, the scum are going to assume that you have something that you (somehow) consider to be even stronger than doctor, so you've just put a big target on your back for being nightkilled before you can use whatever awesome power you might have. Although, maybe you were hoping that there would be another doctor in the building to protect you. Still, a longshot of a hope.
I don't buy the idea that doctoring doesn't pay off until the mid-game. It is immediately useful on Night 1. Sure, you won't have an ironclad idea of who is town to protect by that point, but probability will ensure that you have a good chance of randomly protecting a town early on anyways. And you can get a pretty good idea right off the bat in this sort of setup of who might have good town powerroles that need protecting.
I also disagree about hider being a strong role. Yes, if you are really clever you might be able to finagle it into something useful (I sure wouldn't want to use it!), but overall it strikes me as a riskier cop role with all of the problems that come with a cop role (needing to get others to believe you, not making yourself a target for nightkills if you start successfully breadcrumbing).
Overall, I think it would have been more of a natural town play to, instead of downplay the strength of your doctor discard, acknowledge it, admit that you happened to get multiple strong town powerroles (as the scum would be able to deduce anyways if you are town), and count on another doctor or roleblocker or someone out there to try to protect you.
On Fenn: Similar considerations as apply to Gazglum above. I gather that backup doctor would work as a normal doctor unless there happened to be another doctor in the game. So, only slightly weaker than regular doctor.
On AdrienIer: I agree with Dp101, seems to have inconsistent preferences about risk-tolerance based on his contradictory opinions about hider/lover/scum. Expressed enthusiasm about one, but not the others.
On novice: Zak asked a good question early on that nobody has followed up on yet: why take mafia godfather as 2nd choice? How do we know that it was novice's 2nd choice? Let's imagine that it was novice's 3rd choice (the only other way that it would show up as novice's public discard). If we assume that novice's 2nd choice (which he would have gotten in this scenario) was town, then why would novice's 1st choice have gotten thrown out if it was also town, only to give him a different town role? Can anyone think why Jabbz would throw out a town role for someone, only to give someone a different town role? I guess a bigger question here (which I don't expect Jabbz to be allowed to tell us) would be: was Jabbz throwing out 1st picks based solely on alignment #s, or also on balancing role strengths? If we assume that Jabbz was mainly balancing for alignment #s, then mafia*-mafia!-town or town-mafia*-mafia! make more sense as novice's order of picks, where mafia* = whatever novice really got, and mafia! = the mafia godfather that novice threw out. Although, now that I think about it, if we are assuming that novice was unlucky enough to get 2 mafia roles when he really wanted to play town, then town*-mafia!-mafia would make sense, where town* = what novice ended up getting. In that case, novice would have had no choice but to have a mafia role show up as his 2nd option. Actually, oddly enough, novice has not posted at all yet, so perhaps he will clear it all up when he gets in.
On Rowain: XXXX, VT, 1SG still seems like a suspicious ordering to me, even if Rowain claims that it was an innocent mistake not re-ordering VT and 1SG in his last-minute e-mail. Why claim 1SG as his anonymous discard? I don't know, but keep this in mind: Rowain could have VT show up as his public discard if his draw were town-town-mafia* and Jabbz HAD to give Rowain his least-favorite mafia choice in order to balance teams. Although, if at least 5 of 12 people had discarded mafia options, then it seems less plausible that Jabbz would have HAD to have given Rowain mafia as his 3rd pick. So that's a meta-point in favor of Rowain telling the truth about his innocent mistake and being town.
On Lewwyn: seems awfully jumpy versus the idea of being "set up" by Jkaen this early on, and Lewwyn strikes me as the sort of person who knows not to get too overly-paranoid (in fact, he had the insight last game to figure out that I was being a too-paranoid villager). His reaction in this game seems off. Also, prefering VT over goon seems implausible, I agree with Rowain here. Even I would probably pick goon over VT, just for the non-boringness of having something to do at night.
I don't really have reads on any of the others yet. I'm gonna stick with my vote on Gazglum for now.
Also, since this post took a while to write, I'm sure I will have crossposted with some others.
