WW #43 - The Asha'man

[Gazglum]

Good morning team.

Meiz.

Meiz has 4 posts, and half of them are little jokes. His one substantial post I don't like:

@Jabbz, I think you should double check your RNG just in case it's malfunctioning

If the pool is totally random for each of us, then I guess there is no harm in saying that I also discarded 1-Shot Vigilante. Not a popular role, it seems. We're all a bit gun-shy after the saloon? What were your feelings about that role, Meiz?

Speaking from personal experience, even in the perfect scenario of shooting a scum, you'll just be lynched later for "being the SK".

So I guess people are claiming their anonymous discards? I don't know that it helps, but I do agree it gives us something to talk about. My anonymous discard was a mafia goon. Same as Meiz apparently. Welcome back to Werewolf Meiz!

Thanks for the warm welcome! But mafia goon as 3rd pick? Where's Lewwyn and what have you done to him?

Reviewing the day, I have to say that AdrienIer's questioning of me seems opportunistic and slightly telling as to his actual motives. From his responses it sounds like he enjoys risk, and isn't deliberately picking scum the most risky play of all?

Agreed with above, it seems like AdrienIer would prefer playing scum above anything else.

Other than that, I also agree with Prometheus's view on discarded doctors. Scum-gazglum would know Doctor is shown as his discard, but he could perhaps justify that by taking mafia godfather. If he is town, scum are well aware that his power is stronger, which makes him high priority as the nigh kill. For that reason I'll go with Fenn. Backup doctor is not as incriminating as a discard, but from a pick perspective it's almost equivalent to a full doctor. I also find Fenn very good with words and can see him wanting to try playing scum.

Does this mean he is suspicious of Lewwyn? I guess not, so it's just timewasting. He thinsk Adrien would enjoy playing scum, does that mean Adrien IS scum? He doesn't say.

I also don't like his comment on me. I would know doctor would show, but it would be worth it to be a mafia godfather? WHy pick that one out of the air, its a way of tarnishing me by being randomly specific. And if I wanted to be a mafia godfather, why would I discard the doctor PUBLICLY? It makes no sense, this whole post is lacking logic and opinion.

J'accuse!

[zakalwe]

Good post, Gazglum. That's the kind of post Psilly should have been making.

[zakalwe]

I get the impression that Dp101 is reading more than he is posting. (Not necessarily a scummy thing, but often portrayed as a scum trait.)

Actually, I'd say it is a scum trait, in that scum almost always do that. But townies can probably play like that to varying degrees, too. (And scum usually try to hide it more.)

To comment some more on Meiz, I don't particularly suspect him, but he seems like a logical suspect for Psilly. And Gazglum makes a better case against Meiz than Psilly did against Lewwyn or AdrienIer.

Mostly I believe Meiz in his meta/personality defence that he wouldn't want to be scum. (SK is an option, but yeah.) And Meiz always catches heat for a slow start on day 1.

What's your opinion of Psilly, Gazglum? Care to go on record with it?

[Gazglum]

Sure. I was consciously not focusing on him before to avoid groupthink, but I'll give him a readthrough.

[Meiz]

Morning to you too.

I certainly admit I haven't had much to add so far to the game. I've mostly been following along with the discussion and trying to get a read on people's tone. So far I'd say Rowain reads very confident town-himself. Lewwyn has been prodding people for discussion and I haven't yet seen malice in it. Gazglum leans town for meta reasons (at the end of this post). Zak & novice haven't played a bad game either so far.

On Psilly I agree with the view that he is making his case on Lewwyn bigger than it should be for day 1. I'd also consider voting Jkaen just because he is clearly not against playing scum and would probably like to replicate his successful mafia win.

@Rowain, I haven't got any town vibes from Fenn's posts which is why I've keptd my vote on him. The only thing that makes me want to move is that he claims he would rank scum as his last pick for it being too stressful. Something I'd just have to take his word on. btw. Fenn didn't you consider asking Jabbz how backup doctor works if no doctor is chosen for the game?

Does this mean he is suspicious of Lewwyn? I guess not, so it's just timewasting. He thinsk Adrien would enjoy playing scum, does that mean Adrien IS scum? He doesn't say.

I also don't like his comment on me. I would know doctor would show, but it would be worth it to be a mafia godfather? WHy pick that one out of the air, its a way of tarnishing me by being randomly specific. And if I wanted to be a mafia godfather, why would I discard the doctor PUBLICLY? It makes no sense, this whole post is lacking logic and opinion.

J'accuse!

Comment on Lewwyn might be time wasting but it's just there to acknowledge his welcome. On Adrien, let's just say that his preference on bold entertainment play would make me less hesitant to vote for him in this setup.

As godfather you'd at least have the option of getting scanned as innocent. Otherwise it would be bad scenario for scum, since you'd need to explain not getting night killed as town who has discarded doctor. I don't think it makes much sense, which is why I'm leaning town for you as well.

[AdrienIer]

Good case Gazglum. Meiz

[Lewwyn]

To comment some more on Meiz, I don't particularly suspect him, but he seems like a logical suspect for Psilly. And Gazglum makes a better case against Meiz than Psilly did against Lewwyn or AdrienIer.

Wait why would Psilly logically go for Meiz?

[novice]

Two points on Gazglum's Doctor discard:
* He says himself that he wanted Doctor as his second pick so that he didn't get stuck with a bad role if he didn't get his first choice. That is also a valid reason for ranking doctor second with a scum role as his first choice.
* Why wouldn't he have ranked the 1-Shot Vig role second if he picked scum first? Well, for all we know his third discard could be something stronger than a 1-Shot Vig.

That said, I would agree that all things considered his Doctor discard is more indicative of townglum than scumglum.

Another take on Gazglum though, is that he is one I imagine would love another chance of playing scum. Would you agree, Gazglum? If you had been given the option of choosing scum in this game, would you have?
In the same vein, I'd be surprised if Zakalwe picked scum in this game, and I think Meiz is indeed a player who is good at playing scum but doesn't enjoy it.

[novice]

* Why wouldn't he have ranked the 1-Shot Vig role second if he picked scum first? Well, for all we know his third discard could be something stronger than a 1-Shot Vig.

If Gazglum is lying about his third discard he's at least doing a good job of believing his own lie.

And if I wanted to be a mafia godfather, why would I discard the doctor PUBLICLY? It makes no sense, this whole post is lacking logic and opinion.

[Gazglum]

One other thing to think about: because all of the draws were true-random, we really just have to take people's word for it that they are being honest about their anonymous discards. Scum can say whatever will make them look the best or seem the most plausible, and there's no way we will ever be able to catch them in a lie. So, how much do we really gain from having everyone claim their anonymous discards? Now that I think about it, it seems like a distraction to muddy the waters and get us leaning towards falsely-clearing scum that offer plausible-sounding anonymous discard choices.

As others have said, this is bad. Obviously just a wrong thing to say, because we gain a lot of psychological insight into people from their anonymous discards, true or not. And if scum lie about it, there is a small chance they slip up later. There is no downside to claiming.

Nor is there a reason for scum not to want to, but I guess its a way of building content without giving opinions.

His big post #84 is a bit contradictory. He says his earlier point (that the discards not useful) stands, but then gives a series of insights based on the anonymous discards. So his thought pattern seems inconsistent. He IS giving a lot of reads, so points for that, but he doesn't really give many town/scum leans.

He also votes me for discarding doctor, and goes into some detail about it. He is thinking about it logically, why would a townie do what I did? But at the same time, he doesn't bother to then ask, why would ScumGlum do what I did? The case is not fully thought through.

Incidentally, Fenn then says the exact same thing 'Psilly isn't fully thinking through the implications of his logic', so synchronicity points for him.

I asked Psilly about hsi logic, but his next post is:

This feels like Lewwyn trying to split hairs with Dp101. "Oh, you mean you're only REGULUR scumhunting and not scumhunting IN EARNEST??? Doesn't sound very towny to me, tsk, tsk." C'mon. I've already noted other ways in which Lewwyn seems oddly reactive and trying to reach to pin things on people this game.

So he has dropped the GlumVote like a hot potato, but he doesnt' acknowledge it in any way. No, 'oh yeah, I can see how there are flaws in the idea'. He just turns to the next target once he got push back.

Then,

Re: Dp101: I must have missed that contradiction on my first read-through. Very interesting. Claims to think not much can be done on Day 1 and that it is kind of a meta-fest toss-up, but also claims to be excited to participate. Actually, that's not really much of a contradiction, now that I think about it. Day 1 can make me antsy too if I want to participate a lot and get a jump on leads, but if there isn't really enough yet to go off of. It sometimes leads me on Day 1 to try to make hay out of too little straw or scrape butter over too much bread, which is what Dp101 might have been doing with his early "review" of the field. I can see Dp101's posts as expressing his impatience.

Oh dear, huge Scumdar ping. On the other hand, this is very like his post last game that almost got him mislynched. But it was bad then, and its bad now. "interesting...contradiction...not a contradiction...maybe just impatience". In Psilly's favour, his style is clearly to write out stream-of-consciousness thoughts like this, but this is a whole heap of nothing.

I think his points on Lewwyn are not too bad actually.

Ok, rereading, I think Psilly looks bad. I knew that discarding Doctor would draw some termites out of the woodwork, and I suspected that it would be very tempting for scum to go for it. Psilly was indeed the first to latch on. Then when I pushed back, he didn't respond to me at all, he just dropped me and changed targets. I moved into 'unknown' for him, allowing him to swing back to me if he needs to. But at no point does he explain his reasoning.

Still don't like Meiz though, adn I don't like locking up the vote on one player this far out from deadline. I shall bathe, and muse on my vote.