WW #43 - The Asha'man

[novice]

*What was it that swayed you to change your vote, Gazglum?

[Gazglum]

Two things. One is just emotional reading of the game. I've played enough now that I've started to get a sense of the difference between a wolf and a townie in their final moments. They (usually) respond differently. I didn't like Psilly's posts 6 hours previously or so, but those final posts #262 and #264 felt genuine to me.

Then I checked the vote tallys, and decided that I liked the look of the Adrien voters more than the Psilly voters. I wasn't comfortable being on the same side as Fenn, Prometheus and Dp101, especially after Zak had switched.

[Prometheus1998_]

Then I checked the vote tallys, and decided that I liked the look of the Adrien voters more than the Psilly voters. I wasn't comfortable being on the same side as Fenn, Prometheus and Dp101, especially after Zak had switched.

To be fair, if I had been online at that time, I probably would have switched too.

[Prometheus1998_]

I'm going to crash for the night. I don't have the energy to finish reviewing the thread right now, so I'll finish that when I wake up. Good night all.

[Meiz]

Gazglum, what exactly made you think I'm not the SK?

Are you?

I don't think you CAN'T be a serial killer, it's just very unlikely any given player is. Adrien commented, before we have even fished a second body out of the river, that he thinks you are a likely serial killer. That just seemed like a wild leap, backed up by nothing. This early in the game, all we could really go on are people's posts seeming a bit off. And I don't believe that a mafia and a serial killer would be acting so very different on Day 1 that Adrien can gauge the difference.

Definitely not.

So it's was just a probability thing. I was wondering if you'd have some specific read on why I'd not be the SK (which is something town would not have I think).

Well played Psilly, your defense almost saved you

I'm very surprised novice kept his vote on you. Care to explain this again in more detail?

You mean, given this?

To me Psilly feels like a paranoid town. He seems to have all sorts of scum connections drawn on his mind, and is basing his suspicions around them. Something that is not so easily faked as scum I think.

Interesting that you should say that, because that was exactly the case in WW42 (he was town).

Like my signature says, I had to run at that point, I had domestic matters to attend to. Basically I had already had my second thoughts on Psilly and had decided to stick with the vote based on his bad reaction to my "You're misreading Lewwyn" comment.

Your comment was uncanny so I had to point it out, but I felt it would be best to ride out the Psilly vote and see what transpired. I half figured someone else would swing the vote anyway and we'd get more information with me staying on Psilly.

You had already expressed doubt on you Psilly vote and then also agreed with my view on his game (and you kind of meta cleared me as town), so it feels odd for you to not be swayed. I actually predicted you and Zak would be the swing votes to make Adrien hang. Ok, I could somewhat understand wanting to see how the votes play out without your switch, but bigger part of me thinks Psilly was very townish in his defense and that it should have been enough to make town-novice move.

[Rowain]

I must say I'm annoyed right now. Fenn posts a tally and we still get a wrong lynchresult . I know that writing on phone is a pita but is it so hard to read or hit preview? Or simple make the night longer to get the correct result in. for the record I would have vote for a restart



@Gazglum I could also be a real doctor who wants to scare scum away

Besides AdrienIer who stays on the to lynch list Jkaen has earned a place on scum-list thanks to his play during the second half of D1 . I don't like his "I don't want to vote for Adrien/Psilly stance" and I find his "I don't believe xy has ordered their roles that way" annoying. Especially after his "It can't be possible that 5 people discarded scumcards"-stunt.
I think you know full well that I could have easily claimed that my 3rd discard is town-lover or another VT if I had any intention to lie. So for me your slandering looks like an anti-town trying to line up mislynches.

In short Barring any results from cops/trackers etc my final vote for D2 will be on Adrien or Jkaen.

[Meiz]

I was just about to post on Jkaen. I've found his play very neutral so far. Observant yes, but that's no problem for scum. Probably my #1 suspect for tomorrow.

[zakalwe]

I have a feeling that Jkaen is town, but it would be nice to have that confirmed by a power role.

Speaking of power roles, here's my thoughts on how we can best leverage them.

In general, remember to not target Rowain with anything unless you really really think he's lying.

Doctor - try to predict the night kill, and protect him. Give a solid bias to protecting yourself since every night you stay alive gives us another chance of stopping the kill.

Cop - try to investigate someone scummy, who you predict would also be an easy mislynch.

Vigilante - hold your shot, unless you're feeling very bold. Risky business.

One-shot Vigilante - hold your shot. Save it for the endgame.

One-shot Day Vigilante - congrats on holding your shot today.

Bulletproof Townie - act like you're a cop or something, and try to attract the night kill.

Hider - pick somebody who would be nice to clear, but who you mostly suspect is town.

Watcher - try to predict the night kill, and watch him. (Don't pull a Narkissos and watch yourself.)

Tracker - try to identify who is the least suspicious mafioso and target him. Good luck. Trying to confirm/refute claims about active powers can also be nice, but I don't think anyone has made such claims besides Rowain, and don't target him.

Cop Lover - same as cop.

Roleblocker - I guess you can try to stop the night kill by predicting who might be the scum killer. But this can also do more harm than good, so it's a tough call.

Jailkeeper - like a doctor, but you probably can't self-target. Ideally somebody who you think is town will come out and claim no active power, so you can protect them. Or just play it like a roleblocker, but see above.

Vanilla Cop - same as cop, but also try to predict who might be a mafia goon.

FBI Agent (SK Cop) - same as cop, mostly. Just don't base your reasoning on interaction tells.

Nothing groundbreaking here, I know, but putting it out there nonetheless. For the record, I don't particularly want to be jailed.

[Gazglum]

So, I would normally wait till closer to deadline for this sort of thing, but one of my friends just got dumped and we need emergency friendship group bonding this evening. So I will just say now that the last 24 hours have made me feel very much surer that Adrien is scum.

His Day 1 was bad, and looking at how the votes went down in a very close lynch, I find it striking that three lurker-types Fenn, DP and Prometheus were all voting Psilly, while Zak, Rowain and Lewwyn were on Adrien. I have a town lean on Zak, and I think that Rowain and Lewwyn are playing a strong game so far if scum (but they are both capable of strong scum games).

Anyway, the point is that Adrien’s behaviour post-lynch screams guilty to me. He just got saved by an Act of God. If he’s innocent, it’s an unexpected second chance to prove his towniness. Basically, psychologically, a towny in Adrien’s position should have posted something today. Some reaction, suggestion or interpretation as to what happened.

Keeping his head down, saying nothing, that is the sign of a guilty scum plagued with survivors guilt. He’s probably waiting to see where else suspicion might fall so he can help direct it there.

Cue Adrien saying, ‘I’m busy’ or ‘we shouldn’t talk in night phase’, but I say a towny wouldn’t be able to help but talk after that exciting brush with death. Barring revelations tomorrow, I’m pretty sure I would be voting Adrien.

[Fenn]

Well, my bad for stubbornly sticking to Psilly all day. I did like his last few posts much better than the ones before, but I still felt that he edged out Adrien in scumminess. Clearly, I was wrong (or both candidates were town...). If nothing changes I would probably vote for Adrien tomorrow.

Jkaen's activity looks very suspicious in light of the lynch result too. After voting Gazglum and Lewwyn early on for discard-related reasons he later switches to Dp101, over discarding Mafia Lover. Afterwards he did not involve himself in the Adrien vs. Psilly vote, only making some brief reads on other players in which, among others, he read Adrien as towny and Psilly as neutral.

IMO this behaviour is anti-town. If you don't put a vote on one of the two wagons you're just giving scum a greater control over the vote. Apparently he thought Psilly was scummier than Adrien, so why not vote Psilly? Maybe Dp101 looks suspicious, but that wagon was going nowhere - Rowain joined it 'to help out Jkaen', and nobody else hopped on. Dp even gave an explanation for his discards which Jkaen didn't respond to. It would fit with scum not wanting to get his hands dirty by voting for a townie who gets lynched.

Do agree with Gazglum that Adrien's lack of substance after the vote doesn't look good for him.