Anyway, I thought the time break between the last update warranted a big post, so here's my thoughts on the players and their relative positions going forth:
Jowy:
TECH: Up Chemistry, Steel, SciMeth(Maybe?), and down Constitution, Democracy, Optics, Theo(?), and Divine Right
Jowy's had a score lead for ages with his big pool of wonders, but his GNP has been surprisingly not as good as I imagined it to be considering that he has Great Library, Great Lighthouse, and Pyramids plus very early bureaucracy and shrine. From looking at his farm ridden land it almost seems like he tried a full specialist only economy at one point, which would be much better in RtR where Fin and cottages aren't nerfed. His research rate isn't
bad though, but it's worse than mine now and was evenish with mine for a while before. He still has the most or second most pop, and the most score, but he wasn't nearly as ahead as I thought he was.
At some point Jowy is probably going to attack either me or Pickle. It's the best way for him to get more land which will be needed to compete with the stuff we absorbed from Sian, but what will make this game is who he attacks. I'm not sure which of us is the better target, honestly, but I have been fortifying my border with Jowy just to be safe.
Chances of winning: 33 +/- 8%
Picklepickl:
Up SciMeth, Philosophy, Liberalism, Communism, and down Optics, Theo, Divine Right, Constitution, Democracy
Picklepickl has been running an interesting game. From what I know he's been either deliberately forgoing expansion in favor of economy, or just wasn't good at expanding to begin with. He was actually the one leading in GNP the entire time, which was almost certainly due to having ORG which is actually quite good on this map considering the maintenance. He also went for Hanging Gardens at one point despite only having like ten or less cities, which probably wasn't a good decision. His macro decisions meant that he was super low in crop yield and cities for the whole game, and he still has a couple strong backfill cities he hasn't settled. On the other hand, he got both Taj and the free tech from Liberalism, and he might have managed to leverage that into something even better if he hadn't gotten attacked by Sian, which forced him to blow his golden age on drafting and losing cities. Since then his GNP has fallen back into the pack, but there's plenty of room for him to recover depending on if he can get a good peace deal and walk away with some nice cities and ORG boosted civic savings. But seriously, he needs to settle those backfill cities.
Chances of winning: 33 +/- 5%
Greenline:
Looking at my game thus far, it wasn't quite as bad as I thought it was, although I did make several mistakes. Not cottaging the riverside spices at my capital, not going more aggresively for the gems site by Jowy, and NOT GETTING THE MoM DESPITE HAVING EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO DO SO
set me back a bit. But I still was tied for best crop yield with Jowy for the whole game until I started drafting, and had a competitive GNP and got good use out of the religious wonders. Right now I'm sitting pretty having captured some land from Dreylin and getting good use out of US boosted towns. I also have Statue of Liberty guranteed to finish in a few turns which will be great on this map (but Kremlin would be even greater for me... just like SoL would be much better for Jowy who is probably going to get Kremlin instead
).
How the war with Dreylin turns out will be key. If I walk away with my gains and can consolidate I would say I would have the best position. But if I get horribly counterattacked then I'll be more behind, but not abhorrently so.
Chances of winning: 33 +/- 5%
Sian:
Down Constitution, Democracy, Optics, Theo, Divine Right
Sian's game has been the most baffling to me. He got Oracle, Colossus, and MoM: three keys to success, in addition to the gems site on my side and a fair slice of the center. But somehow he stagnated economy wise and had a sucky crop yield as well. His response to that was not to fire a golden age, work moneybag coasts, and get to Cuirs before anyone else. Instead he... built a giant knight stack when both his neighbors had engineering. While I joked about my military being bad before, it was never that far below the highest, and Sian's decision to go for a midieval war at tech parity just made no sense to me. So he attacked picklepickl instead, captured a few cities, and then lost them before they probably even came out of revolt. My decision to attack him was partially because his behavior was so erratic that I didn't see any peace in our future, in addition to him being the best way for me to get land at a low cost. So Sian didn't bother cobbling a giant siege stack to try and fend off my invasion, but instead tried to rush to rifles, which let me capture two of his cities at a low cost. I don't see Dreylin turning this around, although it's not 100% impossible I suppose
Chances of winning: 1 +/- 4%