[SPOILERS] scooter peruses RB's Greatest Hits

[picklepikkl]

This is PB5, right? I read Krill's thread of that a few months ago.

Surprised it took you so long to reference it, given that you are brothers in Azteca :P

[Nekira Sudacne]

I would say go for the kremlin. You are not in a position where just teching to rifles will help you win. it's mere tech parity, not a winning move when the next largest and third largest all are going for rifles and the game leader has double the second's GNP. Kremlin powered alter whips would let you get out a huge army even with your current land. It's a longshot, but one with a chance to pull off. and if it does not work? Well, massed whipped cannons can do a fair bit of damage to any incoming stack, plus going down in a blaze of glory!

That said take a few to think about it first.

[greenline]

This is PB5, right? I read Krill's thread of that a few months ago.

Dying moose snake would be a better name for PB5 imo

[Epoxy]

THE DAILY ROLL

TURN 253–255: A NEW ROPE

Byzantium has agreed to peace with the destitute Ottoman Empire, who are left hanging onto a single island city. The Khmer Empire is likely to take this stronghold for itself, despite the Ottoman garrison being bolstered by the presence of a great general. Relieved of warring, the Byzantines kick off a golden age, and race for the protection of improved firearms to settle the score with the Khmer. The English follow suit, while great people queue to leave their academies. The Aztecs wonder if this foreign attention to gunpowder and rifling means it can make its own swipe for communism and the Kremlin, a wonder which would be an invaluable benefit with improved production and research thanks to its enhanced whips. Or does this attention mean it would be better to go the prudent route of rifles and grenadiers themselves? With the Statue of Liberty their tech rate is respectable, but still substantially behind the Khmer's. Oxford can't come soon enough, but even that won't bring balance to the fore. Alas, the temptation of better whips might be too great to resist.

[Sullla]

I think there are two strong tech paths here:

1) Communism/Physics for the Kremlin, airships, and double free Great People (guaranteed second Golden Age)
2) Steam Power/Assembly Line for levees, cheap Organized factories, and infantry

These are both excellent options, although both are long-term paths that aren't going to help in the immediate future. If we want to try and claim land right now, then yeah, grab Replaceable Parts and Rifling and see if we can vulture something from one of the dying teams on their way out. That may even be the best option, I'm not sure. Only consider these two tech paths if we're not looking to go that route. 

Since both of these paths require Chemistry, I would research Gunpowder first after finishing Oxford University (for the 1 turn it will take) followed by Chemistry. That will provide frigates and hopefully an opportunity to steal an island city or two somewhere on the map. At that point, stop and reassess again. Do we have a realistic chance of racing to Communism safely at that point, or will that mean certain death? The Steam Power/Assembly Line path is definitely safer, since it runs right past Rifling tech. The Communism and Physics path probably has the bigger upside though, due to the free Great People available. Touch choices for sure. 

I think it's also important to keep in mind that our espionage edge means no one can see our research, while we can see what everyone else is pursuing. For example, we could tech Gunpowder/Chemistry then tech 95% of Liberalism and Scientific Method. If we don't finish the techs, no one will know we're gunning for Communism, and then we could finish both in two consecutive turns with huge overflow into Communism. The extra information definitely helps here. It's a lot easier to run a bluff when no one else knows what you're researching towards until the last minute. 

I would not tech Military Science for grenadiers. It doesn't lead to anything; better to invest those beakers into something else. Get Rifling instead if we're worried about military, which unlocks cavs and is a necessary tech for infantry and later units anyway.

[Nekira Sudacne]

I think the "wait until last second ond on Lib and SciMethod is a great idea, and the best chance of pulling this gambit off successfully 

[Tohron]

You're definitely helped by the fact that REM will be avoiding Communism since Sci. Method will obsolete half his monk economy (and incidentally, he's the only one who's remotely competitive in espionage).

[Brian Shanahan]

I would say go for the kremlin. You are not in a position where just teching to rifles will help you win. it's mere tech parity, not a winning move when the next largest and third largest all are going for rifles and the game leader has double the second's GNP. Kremlin powered alter whips would let you get out a huge army even with your current land. It's a longshot, but one with a chance to pull off. and if it does not work? Well, massed whipped cannons can do a fair bit of damage to any incoming stack, plus going down in a blaze of glory!

That said take a few to think about it first.

That'd be my thinking as well. Scooter is in a position where he's a bit behind REM and probably level with mackoti, so he needs to do something that gives him an edge. And following the leader doesn't give that edge, while taking the Kremlin route might.

[scooter]

Turn 256

Lots of good comments, so I won't address them all. I did really appreciate the reminder that I can partial-research techs to keep people in the dark. I don't have to really commit to a path for about 2 more turns, but my gut really wants to make a play for the Kremlin. One of the main factors here is that Mackoti is our only competition, and if he lands the Kremlin with his land edge, it might be game over even if I think REM is in the better position right now. Here's how long it would take me on a direct route:



That's 10T on full tech, and I can easily wrangle together the gold needed. That number might drop to 9T with the completion of Oxford (not sure). Kremlin is probably a 4-5T build. It's crazy how much cheaper that wonder is than SoL. (Oxford won't be an instant monster-science boon. I'll get the cottages back from satellite cities, grow a couple sizes, add an Observatory, and then pile on the scientist specialists.) There's one piece of bad news though.



Mackoti can't compete for me in raw tech pace at all, but he just got himself 1500b towards Scientific Method if he wants. That said, he's still racing towards Rifling because he fears he's about to be Cav-bombed. So here's my competition for the Kremlin:

REM: He could probably beat me to Kremlin, but he's not interested in obsoleting his monasteries this quickly. He looks to be headed towards Assembly Line.
RMoG: Too far behind
Plako: His golden age is about to finish, and all it got him was a scientist and a pair of Engineers, and that's not nearly enough, and he's still working on Rifling. I'm pretty sure he burned one Engineer on Replaceable Parts. Anyway, he can't beat me and doesn't appear to be trying.

So that leaves Mackoti.

Good News: He's clearly racing to Rifling as fast as humanly possible. His break-even tech rate is bad because his costs are enormous, and he's adding more military now for fear of REM. From a meta perspective, I think he's aware that if he looks like a threat for Kremlin, REM will be forced to put a stop to that. On top of all that, I think he knows he's got enough land to win if he can just hold onto it. So lots of meta-signs point towards him conceding it.

Bad News: He didn't get that Scientist for nothing. He's sitting on a treasury stockpile of 1800g. His costs are almost certainly much higher than me, and he's burning it on Rifling, but he's got the raw beaker potential. He's partial-teched Liberalism. I'm not sure exactly how many beakers he's got in Liberalism, but let's call it 500b, and then he's got 1500 potential beakers into Scientific Method with his scientist. Finally, his golden age isn't over, so I'd expect at least 1 more great person to pop out if not two.

So, take your pick. Thankfully I get to wait two more turns to make a decision, and I think I'll have a better picture then. If he continues burning his treasury on Rifling (I think he will), I'll feel great about the Kremlin chances.

What about Security?

This is the other angle of the Kremlin run. I'm currently building Knights, Catapults, and Galleons. I'm also going to tech Gunpowder first. Whether or not to delay the run to grab Military Tradition to unlock Cuirs is an open point, but I'm leaning towards no, or to compromise putting a turn into it just for safety's sake. I've got a few big things going for me security-wise.

1) I doubt Plako would attack me. He doesn't have Rifling yet, and he doesn't have Astronomy yet, and I'm about to get city visibility on him. He doesn't have enough of an edge on me to make anything stick. I'll probably flash a Galleon or two at him over the next few turns to dissuade him.

2) REM and Mackoti attacking me is not impossible, but it would be wildly risky. From Mackoti's perspective, he's already got enough land, and he badly needs me to not dogpile him. Attacking me would hand the game to REM, and he knows it. REM on the other hand has slightly more reason to attack me. He does need more land, and gaining fresh land is a valid option over attacking Mackoti. That said, he's got to be aware that Kremlin is out there, and it'll be won by someone other than him - either myself or Mackoti most likely. Given that choice, I would think he'd prefer I win it. With that in mind, I don't see why he would attack me and hand the Kremlin to Mackoti. That would seem like a mistake. RMoG seem like a better target both from a meta and geographic perspective.

3) On top of all this, I've got two explorers and a spy floating in REM and Mackoti's territory, and I'm going to use them to watch for any troop shifts towards me. I should be able to get myself a good 4-5T warning if one of them decide to punish me for a Kremlin run, which would be plenty of time to bail out and get Pinch Cuirs to stave off an attack. (And of course, city visibility on Plako should be fairly soon to watch the other border.) Don't get me wrong, that would still be difficult against Rifles, but it's plausible.

So... I'm now leaning towards Kremlin. I'm still changing my mind once per hour, so we'll see how we feel in a couple days.



Mack's primary stack (he's got plenty of other units scattered) recovering and hanging tight. I'll keep an eye on it.



Finally had a nice comparison turn. REM was running 100% science on a 1-prereq tech with no known tech bonuses, so I temporarily set tech to 100% onto Liberalism which has 1 prereq and only 1 known tech bonus. I'm behind by about 250GNP. My culture is going up, but it's still much lower than his, so I'll approximate it and "adjust" his GNP down 100 points to compensate for the culture difference. That's about 20% higher than me. I'm at 650bpt max research, and that would put him at 780bpt max research. He's got Oxford, and I don't. I dunno, I'm feeling okay about that. I don't know what his costs are, but I'm assuming it's pretty close to mine. He's ahead of me, no question, but the next batch of techs potentially favors me.



Military in most places. Masterclass whipped a Market so that I can run a couple Merchants on top of the two scientists + engineer that's currently running there. I'm going to focus on great people there, so I'm thinking about putting an Observatory in there soon for an extra scientist slot, not to mention the 25% modifier on top of Rep specs. Rage Quit is going to 4-pop whip a settler pretty soon, and it'll probably do that again soon because I've farmed it hard to have a heavy food surplus, and I badly need to fill in a few gaps to take further advantage of SoL. I just can't commit too many resources to settlers just yet for obvious reasons.

Interesting times for sure.

[scooter]

From the new turn that rolled this morning:



I don't think Mackoti is going for Kremlin. I do think Mackoti is expecting an REM attack. I'll get a screenshot of it tonight, but REM's power has spiked hard with Cavs. Someone's going to die. Optimistic: REM vs Mackoti. Pessmistic: RMoG's lands split between the two.