[Spoilers] Pindicator accepts his fate

[pindicator]

Turn 119, Part 1


StarDoor whipped 3 times, so I have to assume 3 spears. One was at GameCube, so I should try to take it this turn.

He promoted all the units at GameCube as well. So I made sure to work very carefully to see how best to promote my horchers to give me the best possible outcome:

C1 horcher vs C2 axe is 32.2% to win / 13.6% to withdraw, so 45.8% total to survive
F1 horcher vs C2 axe is 26.8% to win / 22.0% to withdraw, or 48.8% total to survive. So we promote a horcher to Flanking and attack

Lose Axe is down to 28hp, so it was worthwhile

C1 horcher vs C1 axe is 36.5% to win / 12.7% to withdraw, or 49.2% to survive
F1 horcher vs C1 axe is 30.8% to win / 20.8% to withdraw, or 51.6% to survive. Promote to flanking again and attack:

Lose again So much for playing the odds. Axe to 64hp

0xp horcher vs 64hp C1 axe: 87.9%. Win, but 5hp left. My luck continues
0xp horcher vs C2 warrior: 95.4%. win, 55hp left
chariot vs 28hp C2 axe: 99.9%. Win

In the end, I lost both the coinflips (again... ), and then cleaned up.



I really want to raze this city and move it 1 tile east. But when am I going to find time to build a settler? And if I do I have half a dozen better spots to use it on. So I kept the spot.

Right now I'm trying to decide how best to advance. StarDoor whipped 3 times -- so there are 2 potential spears to come. One is almost definitely from Game Boy Color. But looking at his power, he can't have more than 40k power total in units. So 5 or 6 metal units tops, and considering he's scattered among 7 cities I think even less than that. Which means I should probably try to rush my horchers in, letting me at worst pillage his iron next turn.

I also have to keep an eye on OT4E, and decided to send a horcher south to do exactly that:



I'll figure out the rest of the turn later. Have an awful headache tonight.

[pindicator]

Strategy hindsight - perhaps it was better to leave GameCube be and just send everything to Game Boy Color and the iron mine.

I'll finish up the turn in a bit, Blazers and Clippers are playing a hell of a game

[Thoth]

WARRRR!!!!!


W00t!!!

[pindicator]

Turn 121

First off, apologies for the drop off in reporting.  Had some kind of awful headache / illness these last few days.  Roommate says it's his fault, that he had a cold earlier in the week.  So I haven't done much more than play this turn and sleep the last few days.  And make questionable decisions.  But I think I have a more solid grasp on things now.

Let's jump right into the meat of the turn:



So last turn I made the very questionable decision to attack StarDoor's GameCube with only 5 horchers when he had a spear, axe, and warrior on defense.  After losing two more flanking horchers (30% withdraw = 0% withdraw I swear), I had above 50% odds for all remaining battles but I had to win them all.  By now you should know my luck and how that ended.  More importantly, by now I should know my own luck and I should have just waited for more units.  StarDoor had triple whipped the city, which lead to my leaning towards the risky attack.  At least it was the first attack, and a withdraw, but regardless I wasn't capturing the city.  And I was able to kill the warrior, so he can't upgrade it.

I thought I was being really sneaky when I pillaged the iron, assuming that would mean his triple-whipped spear wouldn't complete and he'd just have those wasted hammers.  Not so fast...



Turns out he had just hooked up a second iron in the south that last turn.  Anyway, this turn we moved up all the horchers and a pair of swords.  I'm very certain that the city will fall next turn.  He didn't whip GameCube, and I have brought all the units to bear.

As you can see, OT4E also been poking around our borders as well, using a pair of chariots to be generally annoying.  I've repaid the favor, sending a horcher down to map out his units:




I'm pretty confident he doesn't want to attack here, especially with how his troops are set up.  I think his plan all along was to take StarDoor's core, sit back at his current position, and then use the MoM and subsequent golden age to change gears into another economic push while using his standing army to hold the line.  After his economic push he'll switch gears back to knights and we'll see him take on Nyles or myself at that point, whichever one of us he thinks will be the better target.

What's that?  I should check events?



Not Shown:  Mr. Cairo generates his 2nd great person, a Merchant

Vassalage Means Feudlaism.

 Feudalism means he's 1 tech away from knights.

Gulp.

So I'm still a staggering amount behind and can only continue to build myself up as best I can.  And build some elephants.  Lots of elephants.

This means I need to be careful when eating StarDoor.  I can't take my whole army way out east, otherwise OT4E will be able to just waltz right in my front door.  So go back and look at the iron screenshot.  Where do I end?  I think NintendoDS and Wii are the bare minimum, and we take a look at GBA.  Probably can't go farther than that.

I'm quite a few turns away from Guilds. I need Polytheism, Monotheism, Monarchy, Feudalism, and the rest of Machinery before I can even start it. Good news is I will probably have my golden age right around then. Started doing a little extra thing to raise some cash. Or rather, should I say, raze some cash. Ahem.



OT4E doubtless will not like this. Oh well, I need the funds. In fact, I need it so much I decided to take the pillage party to StarDoor's lands:



Good thing I just captured a bunch of his workers to remake all those improvements. Even so, I think this move is a bit questionable...


Considering this may very way be the apex of my civilization, let's show off the cities a bit:



We managed to 3-turn a forge here. It took a couple of 3-ring chops, and a 1-pop whip next turn, but Torheven is going to be churning out a cool 30hpt really soon. Probably need to sneak a lighthouse in here and then just pump out 2-turn elephants. God I'd love a Stables too. Maybe the Stables is more important than the Lighthouse...




The capital has reached size 14. It'll be a really nice Beauro-cap, if I ever get to Civil Service.




Golden Age in 15 turns. Way too far out. I am going to also start running specialists in Kameber again. If I'm going to make a push midgame it's going to be with an Astronomy bulb, which means I need 2 Great Scientists. I'll be able to get those during a golden age easy enough. I'm just debating whether or not I want to also run merchants and risk coin flips again between Atuan and Kameber. Great Merch = Golden Age. Great Scientist gets stashed for Astro bulb. Both cities getting Great Merch is only a 25% chance, and surely we won't lose 2 coin flips in a row. Right?


Next city is going out east:



We'll 2-pop whip Vemish in 2 turns to get the settler out a little quicker, and try to chop out a work boat from Mishport. Oh yeah, I never showed you guys founding Mishport. Well, there she is.

Another settler is going to be whipped out of Andrad -- that city needs a lighthouse since it's run out of good tiles to work. Either that or Guilds/Caste so the workshops become 1/3 tiles. And finally we'll swap to a settler up north at Oronea next turn and whip that. Oronea is growing pretty damn well since we got it's lighthouse chopped and whipped -- all those 3/2 lake tiles are pretty nice.


Demos:



We were #2 in MFG and crop just last turn so we aren't too far away. And OT4E is really that far ahead.

[pindicator]

Turn 122

Well, I know what happened to that Great Engineer now:



I remember seeing that GE around the border city, so I'm willing to bet he rushed Parthenon on the border just to get culture coming in. That really kills any idea of me planting a city on the copper for a front-line.

2 wonders only account for half of his 71 pt score increase this last turn. I'm pretty sure the other half is him 1-turning Literature. My guess is we're going to see enough overflow to land Guilds in a turn or two. Or hell, this might have been Guilds already. I should act like it was.

Following my lead, OT4E also has pillaged that village down. I finished it off and moved back into his borders. If I can remember to do it I really should build a pair of scouts to free up the 50h horcher.

Good stuff:



StarDoor had gotten another spear, either by overflow or moving it up from the south. (I spotted another spear moving north after I captured this city.) Anyway, we only lost 1 horcher to take this - RNG swung back in our favor.

CR1 sword vs 88hp C1 axe: 45.6% WIN, 79hp left
CR1 sword vs C1 spear: 96.7% WIN, 55hp left
90hp F1 horcher vs C1 spear: 2.9% win, 29.1% withdraw: WITHDRAW, 85hp on the spear
F1 horcher vs 85hp C1 spear: 19.1% win, 24.3% withdraw: LOSE, spear to 21hp
F1 horcher vs 78hp C1 spear: 32.3% win, 20.3% withdraw: WITHDRAW, spear to 65hp
horcher vs 65hp C1 spear: 59.9% win, 8% withdraw: WIN

And here I decided to give StarDoor peace.



Reasons?

1) OT4E. I don't want to pull my units too far from that border
2) StarDoor's building nothing but spears and so I need to come south with different/better unit types unless I want to suffer lots of losses.
3) It would take 5 turns to move my swords to hit his next nearest town. Taking another 5 to build a few more swords/xbows seems prudent
4) Got this guy, which is always a big boon for early war:



Ideas?

[pindicator]

So StarDoor decides to take OT4E's peace, but he wants to fight me to the bitter end?

Just keep throwing the game for OT4E; you've done a ton for him already!

[Commodore]

I always assume the guy I'm eliminating will fight me to the bitter end. Then when he leaves for India it's a pleasant surprise, not an expected bonus.

[Hesmyrr]

That reference makes me feel old.

[pindicator]

It doesn't really change how we play. I'm still not going to push any farther into StarDoor until I feel ready to.

It's just frustrating -- I try to warn him about OT4E and he ignores it. I am whipping units to try and help him hit OT4E as soon as OT moves east but he takes peace. So I do the only thing left to me: try to get some of the easy pickings. And now I'm the bad guy.

[SadGit]

It doesn't really change how we play.  I'm still not going to push any farther into StarDoor until I feel ready to.

It's just frustrating -- I try to warn him about OT4E and he ignores it.  I am whipping units to try and help him hit OT4E as soon as OT moves east but he takes peace.  So I do the only thing left to me: try to get some of the easy pickings.  And now I'm the bad guy.

Dont be silly. You were allways the bad guy. Why do you think you have such good ratings. "Plucky young guy finds courage and becomes a hero" is for kids. What the mature lurker seeks is evil incarnate liberaly showered in blood.