WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Gazglum]

@Gazglum: Why did you switch back to Lewwyn in the end?

In case there was a sudden spurt of chaos that somehow ended in Adrien getting lynched. It was clear that you weren't going to get enough votes to push you up.

[Rowain]

@Gazglum: Why did you switch back to Lewwyn in the end?

In case there was a sudden spurt of chaos that somehow ended in Adrien getting lynched. It was clear that you weren't going to get enough votes to push you up.

Your switch happened well after Lewwyn returned to vote himself (the easy way out) so the chance for Adrien getting lynched was equally low. (especially if you consider that Lewwyn and I were sitting on Adrien some time already without getting buyers)

[Rowain]

Hm hm hm Lewwyn was town. I'm town so either there was 1 scum up yesterday in Adrien which makes your reluctance to see him lynched scummy.

Or there were 3 villagers up (still more likely). Which means there are 2 scums in Gazglum, Psilly, DP which makes you the most likely scum of those 3.

Gazglum

[Gazglum]

@Gazglum: Why did you switch back to Lewwyn in the end?

In case there was a sudden spurt of chaos that somehow ended in Adrien getting lynched. It was clear that you weren't going to get enough votes to push you up.

Your switch happened well after Lewwyn returned to vote himself (the easy way out) so the chance for Adrien getting lynched was equally low. (especially if you consider that Lewwyn and I were sitting on Adrien some time already without getting buyers)

I wasn't worried about people piling on Adrien as much as just one or two people peeling off Lewwyn and splitting the vote. And by 'your switch happened well after Lewwyn retunred', I think you mean 'happened within a minute and I didn't see Lewwyn's return before I changed my vote, because I was responding to you first'.

[Rowain]

To elaborate. Gazglum + Psilly works; Gazglum + DP works; Psilly + DP involves considerable risk on Psillys part (especially if you are going to sleep 3 hours before lynchtime)

[Gazglum]

Hm hm hm Lewwyn was town. I'm town so either there was 1 scum up yesterday in Adrien which makes your reluctance to see him lynched scummy.

Or there were 3 villagers up (still more likely). Which means there are 2 scums in Gazglum, Psilly, DP which makes you the most likely scum of those 3.

Gazglum

...what?

How does it make me the most likely out Psilly and DP?

[Rowain]

crosspost my answer happened before your question

[Gazglum]

To elaborate. Gazglum + Psilly works; Gazglum + DP works; Psilly + DP involves considerable risk on Psillys part (especially if you are going to sleep 3 hours before lynchtime)

Sure, in a vaccuum where you don't look at people's play.

I already said that I think Psilly's move makes sense as a risk. Scum have no night-kills, and no way of shutting down Lewwyn crusading against DP all the next day. Psilly parked his vote at a time when the actual likelihood of DP swinging seemed low, requiring:

> Jabbz changes his mind about martyring himself and moves to DP
+ > someone else moves to DP out of Rowain, Glum and Adrien, all of whom had been posting more against jabbz
+ > none of the others moves back to Jabbz in a sudden rush of cold feet.

Anyway, you and me are in the same situation. From my POV, Rowain + DP works, Psilly + DP works, Rowain + Psilly is possible, and I guess even Adrien + Psilly, as you say. But then you weigh all that against Mr D. P's actual posts, and the right vote at the moment seems fairly clear to me.

But yes, we don't want to waste a day, so I will welcome scumhunting from everyone, and happy to engage with you.

[Rowain]

I wasn't worried about people piling on Adrien as much as just one or two people peeling off Lewwyn and splitting the vote.

If you were so set on lynching Lewwyn that you didn't want to split the vote why were you voting for me in the first place?

And by 'your switch happened well after Lewwyn retunred', I think you mean 'happened within a minute and I didn't see Lewwyn's return before I changed my vote, because I was responding to you first'.

Ok I grant you that.

[Gazglum]

What I meant with the first part of that is that I think scum probably considered DP's chance of long-term survival as low, given the attacks he had already received. Either they nominated him Day 2 against people like you, me or Lewwyn, and he almost certainly dies. Or they leave him out, as they did, and he looks even worse for it.

So while it wouldn't make sense to bus DP needlessly on Day 1 (which turns me off the Adrien + DP combo), it would make sense for his partner to hedge his bets by making a dangerous but not fatal vote, while at the same time urging other people about Jabbz's scumminess.