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[SPOILER] PB37 Dark Savant tries not to be a blatant MP n00b

The next easiest player's micro to follow is probably CML:
  • t0: plant on start, producing worker using cow + Expansive, research rate for first-column techs is 10 flasks/turn
  • t7: Fishing complete with 6 overflow
  • t10: worker complete, starts pasture on cow; now producing work boat; capital still works cow
  • t11: capital 2/22 food, work boat 4/30
  • t12: capital 4/22 food, work boat 8/30
  • t13: capital 6/22 food, work boat 12/30; pasture complete
  • t14: capital 9/22 food, work boat 18/30; worker moves into capital
  • t15: capital 12/22 food, work boat 24/30; worker moves to rice
  • t16: Agriculture completed exactly; capital 15/22 food, work boat completed exactly, goes on clam, which is worked by capital; worker starts farm on rice; base research rate now 12 flasks/turn
  • t17: capital 20/22 food, warrior 2/15; new tech 1t + 12 base flasks (NOTE: it's possible he can swap over to the cow for this one turn for +3 hammers, -2 food, -2 base flasks; this will cause the warrior to complete on t20 instead, and allow another warrior to be produced on t23)
  • t18: capital size 2, 3/24 food, warrior 4/15, new citizen works cow; new tech 2t + 24 base flasks
  • t19: capital 9/24 food, warrior 9/15; new tech 3t + 36 base flasks
  • t20: capital 15/24 food, warrior 14/15; new tech 4t + 48 base flasks; worker completes farm on rice (expectation is that it is not worked yet)
  • t21: capital 21/24 food, warrior complete with 4 overflow, another warrior started; new tech 5t + 60 base flasks
  • t22: capital size 3, 3/26 food, warrior 9/15, new citizen works farm, production likely swapped to either worker or settler; new tech 6t + 72 base flasks
  • t23: capital size 3, worker 16/60 or settler 14/100; new tech 7t + 84 base flasks
So he either produced a warrior on t21, or two warriors on t20 and t23.

If he's researching The Wheel that will come in 1-2 turns; Bronze Working would arrive in 7.  He cannot be researching Animal Husbandry, because that would give him a GNP of 22 and highest rival GNP is currently 20, and has been for 3 turns.  (If The Wheel comes in 1t, that aligns with 1 warrior on t21; 2t suggests 2 warriors on t20/t23.)
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I'm taking a hard enough a look at this to realize that Gavagai may have built the t15 warrior.  I'm going to redo C&D to see that makes more sense.

edit: Okay, JR4 can basically have worked on the same schedule as CML, except he researched Mysticism/Mining instead of Bronze Working.  Same t21 warrior vs. t20/23 warrior split, and only 1 warrior was produced on each of t20 and t21.
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The reason I re-worked that is because I couldn't come up with a sensible build order for Gavagai that also fits all other known facts ... but if Gavagai produced the t15 warrior, then I do have a sensible order:
  • t0: plant on start, produce worker using cow + Expansive, research rate for first-column techs is 10 flasks/turn
  • t10: Hunting complete with 4 overflow, research on Fishing started; worker complete, starts pasture on cow (NOTE: needed to efficiently produce a warrior by t15, and a farm could cause growth on t17 which didn't happen); now producing warrior and working oasis for base 12 flasks/turn
  • t13 pasture complete, starts working pastured cow; Fishing 3t, 40/64
  • t14 worker moves into capital
  • t15 warrior complete with 1 overflow, another warrior started; Fishing 5t, 60/64; worker moves southeast, builds a road for 1 turn, then is awakened
  • t16 Fishing complete with 6 overflow; warrior 6/15, production changed to work boat; worker starts to build farm on rice
  • t17 work boat 6/30, new tech 1t + 16 base flasks
  • t18 capital size 2, 2/24 food, work boat 12/30; new tech 2t + 26 base flasks; new citizen works oasis so base flask production is now 12/turn
  • t19 capital 6/24 food, work boat 18/30; new tech 3t + 38 base flasks
  • t20 capital 10/24 food, work boat 24/30; farm complete, citizen on oasis moved to farm; new tech 4t + 50 base flasks
  • t21 capital 18/24 food, work boat exactly complete, warrior resumed; work boat goes on clam, citizen moved there from rice; new tech 5t + 60 base flasks
  • t22 capital size 3, 2/26 food, warrior 11/15, new citizen works rice; new tech 6t + 72 base flasks
  • t23 capital 11/26 food, warrior complete; new tech 7t + 84 base flasks

This also has Gavagai's GNP as 24 on exactly the turns called for (t18 and t19).  If this is the case, then Gavagai must have changed research because otherwise his GNP would still be 24, and it can't be higher than 20 (max rival GNP on t22 and t23; sorry, that's only been the case for 2 turns).  I'm guessing that the trigger was him seeing my scout on t19, causing him to swap research over to Mining, which would drop his GNP to 20.  That also suggests that I was his first contact; that he was off researching Pottery because he believed he was isolated; and that it probably won't now pay to launch a harassing attack force.

I hope that chain of reasoning isn't that fragile, because that's the best explanation I can think of for all the known facts.  (No one else could have built the t15 warrior ... I double-checked that. crazyeye)

Coeurva's GNP would have been 22 on t20 and t21 (the max rival GNP on those turns); it dropped by 2 when he finished Bronze Working, so he's researching a first-column tech -- not surprising since like us, he doesn't have either Agriculture or The Wheel.
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Next up in C&D Micro Insanity, dtay:
  • t0 plant on start, produce worker using flood plain, research rate for first-column techs is 11 flasks/turn
  • t5 borders expand, oasis now being worked; Fishing 5t, 55/64
  • t6 Fishing complete with 3 overflow, research on Mining started
  • t12 worker complete, work boat started, cow now being worked; Mining 6t, 75/79; worker starts pasture on cow; research rate now 10/turn
  • t13 Mining complete with 6 overflow; capital 2/22 food, work boat 3/30
  • t14 capital 4/22 food, work boat 6/30, forested grass hill now being worked; new tech 1t + 16 base flasks
  • t15 capital 5/22 food, work boat 10/30; pasture complete, now being worked; new tech 2t + 26 base flasks
  • t16 capital 8/22 food, work boat 15/30; new tech 3t + 36 base flasks; worker moves into capital
  • t17 capital 11/22 food, work boat 20/30; new tech 4t + 46 base flasks; worker moves to rice
  • t18 capital 14/22 food, work boat 25/30; new tech 5t + 56 base flasks; worker starts farm on rice
  • t19 capital 17/22 food, work boat exactly complete, warrior started; work boat goes on clam, citizen moved there from cow; new tech 6t + 66 base flasks, base research rate now 12 flasks/turn
  • t20 capital size 2, 0/24 food, warrior 2/15, new citizen works cow; new tech 7t + 78 base flasks
  • t21 capital 6/24 food, warrior 7/15; new tech 8t + 90 base flasks
  • t22 capital 12/24 food, warrior 12/15; new tech 9t + 102 base flasks; worker completes farm on rice, now worked instead of cow
  • t23 capital 20/24 food, warrior 14/15; new tech 10t + 114 base flasks; probably will swap back from rice to cow in order to get more overflow into a settler

dtay is projected to both reach size 3 and complete his first warrior next turn. If he chooses to produce a settler immediately thereafter, he can complete it on t31.

dtay is unlikely to be researching anything other than Bronze Working (due in 5 turns, though if he wants to it should be easy to get it in 4), as The Wheel, Mysticism, Archery, and Masonry would have already completed, and Animal Husbandry would cause him to have a GNP of 22.  He could be researching Sailing straight-up (very unlikely), or have switched techs (also unlikely; I don't see a reason for this and his worker doesn't have much to do currently, so it's costly to switch midstream).
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While I was grabbing another demographics screenshot (nothing new there), Gavagai just moved his scout within view of Castle Ironfist.  It's now a tile south of orange dot, so he can get vision on Castle Ironfist in 2 turns (he can already see our northern border).

I can no longer recall the jungle warrior before t29, so I might as well have it finish scouting that peninsula.
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Turn 24 (3040 BC)

The scout rests, warrior #1 retraces his steps in the jungle, warrior #2 steps on the hill on the way to red dot and will remain there to keep lookout for any spawning barbs until the red dot settler gets there.  Sam finishes chopping, and Frodo moves onto the last forest.  Nothing to see, so no pictures.

C&D: Coeurva's graphs show what I expected (smaller bump from the warrior produced last turn; drop in GNP; increase in production; constant food production).

dtay grew to size 3 as expected, though if he wants to just proceed directly to size 4, he could have produced a warrior last turn, not now.  His worker doesn't have anything better to do than build a mine, so the 4th citizen would get an improved tile to work.

GermanJoey grew to size 3 and researched a tech (the only one that showed up this turn), which pretty much has to be Mining, but I'll do his analysis next.

Krill finally grew to size 2.

It wasn't worth growing ourselves to size 3 early since we didn't have anything resembling decent food production until last turn, and most other players have rice farms whereas we don't even have Agriculture yet.  The current plans have us also being slackers growing to size 4; I don't project our rice farm to be done until about t47, most other players had theirs done by t20.  (I wouldn't be quite this slow if the forest copper didn't exist; many older plans of mine had our current research as Agriculture in order to start a farm at city #2 immediately, which turned out to be unnecessary.)

5000 new soldier points showed up; 1000 was Krill's population increase, 2000 is very probably GermanJoey getting Mining, and the other 2000 is 1 warrior by someone who can't be Coeurva or Krill.
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GermanJoey's detailed micro looks pretty much exactly like dtay's, with the same uncertainty about whether a warrior was produced now or last turn, and with me being not quite sure whether he got Mining or Mysticism this turn.
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I can't really work out what Ventessel is doing.  He didn't grow until t20, when by my estimation he should have done so on t19 if he went straight to improving the rice.  He then apparently ... chopped out a warrior?, which at least would account for the warrior that showed up on t22.  This may sound strange but I can't think of a better explanation.  I am probably missing something here in my C&D, oh well.

As far as I can tell, he must have produced at least one warrior by now, and this does account for the warrior that showed up on t22.  (He cannot have produced one earlier.)

There are two players who might have Mining or Mysticism, and there are 9-11 warriors total produced by our rivals (1 on t15, 1 on t20, 1 on t21, 1 on t22, 4-5 on t23, 1-2 on t24).  Looking at each rival specifically, I get: CML and JR4 are 3 total, one way or the other; Coeurva 1; dtay 1; Gavagai 1 or 2; GermanJoey 1; Krill 0; Ventessel 1 or 2.  So that means that at least one of the mystery techs is Mining, which tells me little since I am expecting both to be.

Oh well, we'll get more clarification in the coming turns.
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If you want to, now that you have visibility on Gavagai's capital you can do further C&D to figure out how many hammers he has invested in the current build and stuff like that.
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(May 24th, 2017, 15:02)ipecac Wrote: If you want to, now that you have visibility on Gavagai's capital you can do further C&D to figure out how many hammers he has invested in the current build and stuff like that.

I could (and would) do that in standard Beyond the Sword, but is that possible in this mod?  The mission to sabotage production isn't available, so the numbers for it don't show up on the espionage screen.

Gavagai has a warrior coming towards our scout, but the scout is scheduled to start to move again next turn anyway.
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