Muqa's situation is weird, but not really bad. And part of it might be useful information for the future: It could be that queuing something as another build completes doesn't pause the decay clock in RtR, maybe because of the way the culture bug was fixed. It'll be good to know not to rely on that in the future. We weren't planning to build the spear there before the (one) hammer decayed anyway, so that's not a big deal, and like I said, we're going to want Toregene's spear before it has a chance to decay regardless.
OH! And I just figured out the other part: Definitely my fault on the axe not completing when I thought it would. I just thought we were getting one more hammer of overflow from the workboat than we actually did. If we'd noticed last turn that it wasn't about to complete, we could have fixed it, but obviously not for free. In some ways, getting that hammer of overflow into a Settler at Muqa is better anyway, assuming that's what we do with it. We can even finish building it a turn sooner than we could have otherwise. I still feel foolish for making that mistake though.
As for dtay, it figures there'd be a delay on such an interesting turn, but I guess there are likely to be a lot of interesting ones coming up, one way or another! (Or another ... or another ... or...)
Fun fact: We`ve spent exactly 53 days on the first 53 turns. Iirc we had a prolonged pause the turns before we discovered both Bronze Working and Animal Husbandry. And now again, when we might attack Joey. Oh well, nothing we can do about that.
It`s obviously a good thing that we discovered the differences between Rtr mod and Bts now, and not when we desperately need another unit later in the game.
Also, the different plans for aggression in the coming turns look good. I`m leaning towards showing Joey an axe if he settles his third city elsewhere than the hill between us. As the saying goes: "You can get more of what you want with a kind word and an axeman, than you can with just a kind word". There is a certain risk connected to doing so, as you`ve noticed. My thinking is that Joey is an experienced player, and knows it`s a bad strategy to show an attacking axe a million miles away from its target. I could, of course, be wrong here..
Heh - we'll see if the rule of a kind word and [an axe] holds in Civ! GermanJoey is indeed an experienced player, and indeed knows that it's bad strategy to wander a lone axe half a dozen tiles across the wilderness to attack an established city. What he thinks of our level of experience is a different question, but the point is really: At worst, if he sees our axe, he'll respond by preparing to defend a hill city in force. At best, there'll be an interesting dance down there as we basically work out a border agreement together in mime. Either way, I'm kind of looking forward to it....
Okay, I took a look at some things - and it's practically all good news:
1) Just a question first: Is it true that GermanJoey still has only two cities? (I can't tell if his score increase back on turn 44 was a pop growth or a third city founded right around the turn roll, the way dtay has done in the past.)
2) He did not whip a Settler last turn!!! The screenshots of Seven Mysteries from T52 show it with only a Granary, but the screen from T53 shows it with a granary and a monument! This means the tech he picked up T51 was Mysticism, he put a turn into the monument T51, and he whipped the monument T52! He did whip turn 54 according to civstats, but did not found a city. I can't tell just from Civstats which city he whipped though.
3) We do not need to be afraid of a Chariot hitting our axe out of the fog: GermanJoey does not have Animal Husbandry! He didn't need the happiness from the furs and wasn't planning a city that could work the tile, so it's understandable, but I believe it's also definite per his civstats score increases. He started with Fishing + Hunting, and (once we remove score from land points and city growth) his tech score increases are spoken for thus:
T8: The Wheel. Soldier Count confirmed this at the time, and we know he has it because he's been building roads (and has Pottery).
T17: Agriculture. Again supported by Soldier Count, and we know he has it because he's farmed the Corn.
T24: Mining. We know he has this because the silver is mined (and he has BW).
T32: Pottery. We know he has this because there's a Granary in Seven Mysteries.
T45: Bronze Working. We know he has this because he's whipped since then.
T51: Mysticism. We know he has this because there's a Monument in Seven Mysteries. All of these techs are confirmed! There is no earthly way he could have all these and Animal Husbandry, and none of these could be mistaken for AH.
4) From the shape of the power graph, the timing of BW, and the fact that the build queue of Seven Mysteries has been tied up with a Monument for the last two turns, we also know that GJ has no units more powerful than Warriors in our theater as of turn 53!
On the basis of all this, I'm going to assume GJ does not intend to build his next city on Sentry Hill. We can move our warrior forward to check and show him the axe anyway if you want, to help drive home the point that he shouldn't try to do so without more military, but I'm going to post a microplan here based on the assumption that we won't be fighting soon:
The plan below is extremely rough, and depends a lot on our planned tech path; I could even see a change as soon as T55 ... even if war isn't on the horizon! (If it were, it would obviously change everything....) Nevertheless:
T54: Borte is now size 5 and resumes its Settler. Axe is complete at Muqa, which is now size 5 and starts a Settler, working Corn + Sheep + Fish + Silver + Cow. ONE of the Workers on the floodplain completes the Cottage. The other moves 1S to the "river" grassland, starts another Cottage, and CANCELS orders. Borte works Cow + Copper + Clam + Horse + Cottage. The Warrior at Muqa moves 2SW toward Borte (leaving the Axe in place as MP and to defend against any possible Impis).
T55: The Worker on the Cow completes the Pasture. The Worker on the floodplain moves NW-N through the roaded river grassland to the roaded forest directly north of Borte, begin a Chop, and CANCELS orders. The Worker on the "river" grassland near Borte moves SW-SE to a river grassland beside Toregene and begins a Road. The Worker on the forest hill completes its Chop. The Warrior between Borte and Muqa moves SW-W to join the Worker on the roaded forest.
T56: The Worker on the Cow moves 2SW to a plains forest. The Worker on the forest north of Borte moves 1NW to the grassland between the pig and oasis and begins a Road. The Worker on the river hill in Toregene's first ring begins a Road, but then CANCELS orders. The Worker on the river grassland next to Toregene completes a Road.
T57: Toregene is now size 3; it WHIPS its Granary (3 pop to 2) and works Rice + Furs. The Warrior north of Borte WAITS until the Worker on the grassland northwest of it completes a Road; the Warrior then moves NW-W to the forest. The Worker on the forest begins a Chop. The Worker on the river grassland beside Toregene moves 1S to the hill with the other Worker. The Worker already on that hill moves 1S to the jungle.
T58: Settler is complete at Borte, which resumes its Chariot. Granary is complete at Toregene, which resumes its Spearman. The Settler moves SW-2SE-S through the cow, hill, and river grassland to join the Worker on the river hill. That Worker completes the Road on that tile. The Worker on the jungle begins a Road. The Warrior northe of Borte moves NW to the plains forest hill; the Worker nearby then moves NW-W to join the Warrior there.
T59: Chariot is complete at Borte, which begins a Granary. The Settler WAITS until the Worker on the jungle completes its Road; then the Settler moves S-SW to the site of Oghul Qaimish. The Worker on the river hill on which the Settler began the turn begins a Mine, but then CANCELS orders. The Worker on the plains forest hill begins a Road. The Worker on the forest in Muqa's first ring completes its Chop. Muqa WHIPS its Settler (5 pop to 4) and works Corn + Cow + Sheep + Fish.
T60: Settler complete at Muqa, which begins a Granary and works Corn + Cow + Sheep + Silver. Borte swaps to building a Worker. The Worker on the jungle WAITS for the nearby Settler to found the city of Oghul Qaimish, which begins a Monument, working the plains forest; then the Worker from the jungle moves SW-W through the city to the Corn and begins a Farm. The Worker on the nearby hill moves S-SW-S to a plains forest. Muqa's Settler moves 3SW-W to the roaded forest beside the Oasis. The Worker on the plains forest hill completes its road. (Muqa worker's moves TBD based on tech path.)
T61: Granary complete at Muqa, which begins a unit (TBD) and works Corn + Cow + Sheep + Fish. Toregene begins a Monument. The Settler moves 2NW to the pig/corn site and founds the city of Chubei (going slightly out of order to save similar-sounding names for later cities) which starts a Granary and works the Oasis. The Worker on Chubei's plains forest hill moves 1S to the Corn and begins a Farm. The Worker on Oghul Qaimish's forest begins a Chop. (Remaining worker's moves TBD based on tech path.)
T62: Toregene is now size 3; it WHIPS its Monument (3 pop to 2) and works Rice + Furs. Borte WHIPS its Worker (5 pop to 4) and works Cow + Copper + Horse + Clam. (Remaining worker's moves TBD based on tech path.)
T63: Worker is complete at Borte, which resumes its Granary, working Cow + Copper + Horse + Cottage (because the Granary's timing means the additional food from the Clams would be ~wasted). Monument is complete at Toregene, which resumes its Spearman. Muqa is now size 5 and starts a Settler, working Corn + Cow + Fish + Sheep + Silver. Oghul Qaimish works the Corn. The Worker on its plains forest completes a Chop. (Remaining moves TBD)
T64: Granary is complete at Borte, which begins a unit (TBD) and sets AVOID GROWTH ON while working Cow + Copper + Clam + Cottage. Monument is complete at Oghul Qaimish; it begins a Granary. The Worker on its Corn completes a Farm. (Remaining moves TBD)
T65: Borte turns AVOID GROWTH OFF. Next turn, it will be at size 5 with 21 food in the bin.
By checking the diplo screen, I can confirm that Joey is still at two cities. If my notes are correct, Ventessel is the only other player on two cities, as Krill planted his third this turn.
Joey`s lone warrior is still standing on that much-discussed hill. It has 20% fortification bonus. It`s very good news for us that he still hasn`t researched Animal Husbandry! That, and the fact that Joey hasn`t roaded towards us makes me relax a bit. We`re top power atm, and now we have vision on that hill. I think Joey will tolerate it until his border pops. I really really hope that he doesn`t land Buddhism in Seven Mysteries.. The axe 3W of Toregene and the warrior between Borte and Toregene didn`t move.
So, just 6 turns until we get our border city built. We need a unit to accompany the settler down there. We could let the warrior go south. Another option is sending down our axe that way (out of Joey`s sight).
Cool - thanks for the update! So we're not going to show the axe to GermanJoey after all? I can see arguments either way. GermanJoey just whipped Seven Mysteries again THIS turn, but I don't think it was a Settler; that city's been growing too often for that to be the case. I think he'll have a Phallanx next turn. (Could be a spear of course.) Thanks to those Northerner-hating lakes, that limits our scouting Warrior's options. If we move it onto the copper next turn, GermanJoey could kill it just to get it out of his hair. With those northern-hating lakes, I guess it's a question of holding in place or going around....
What does our tech path look like after Mysticism? Sailing to pick up the whales and islands? Writing -> Mathematics for better chops and the path to Currency and CoL? Gambling on Buddhism ourselves? Ironworking for the southern cities and iron tiles? HBR to say, "Awww, forget it, let's just kill somebody with Keshiks ASAP"?
I would definitely move the warrior (between Toregene and Borte) back to Toregene en route south. We need to protect the Workers even before the Settler shows up. (Just because we've only seen one barb so far doesn't mean we won't meet one at the worst possible moment.)
I wouldn't expect GJ to be teching Meditation right now, but you never know.... (And of course the event log might show Buddhism founded at any moment anyway. Note that founding a religion doesn't provide a big score boost right away - just the usual one for landing a tech. (It may show up twenty turns later as a bunch of land points though....)
You know what, I moved the axe into Joey`s vision after all. Let`s see how he reacts to this show of force. The die is cast. The warrior was moved back to Toregene. It makes a lot of sense to have it closer to the tiles where barbs could emerge.
Buddhism still hasn`t been founded. It`s a 4-turn tech for us. If it still hasn`t been founded next turn we might take a gamble. Hmmm, it`s very difficult to decide which tech to go for next. How do you feel about (Meditation) - Sailing - IW - Writing? We could go for an earlier IW instead.
(June 21st, 2017, 05:58)JR4 Wrote: You know what, I moved the axe into Joey`s vision after all. Let`s see how he reacts to this show of force. The die is cast. The warrior was moved back to Toregene. It makes a lot of sense to have it closer to the tiles where barbs could emerge.
Buddhism still hasn`t been founded. It`s a 4-turn tech for us. If it still hasn`t been founded next turn we might take a gamble. Hmmm, it`s very difficult to decide which tech to go for next. How do you feel about (Meditation) - Sailing - IW - Writing? We could go for an earlier IW instead.
The die is cast indeed! This should be interesting!
On tech:
- I'm not sure I'd want to gamble on Meditation. It would set back our tech by a bit, give us ~nothing if someone beats us to it, and if we landed it, there'd be (I think?) about one chance in three that it would show up in Toregene. (I assume we'd be hoping to land it in Muqa to better control that border and get more happiness in that city soon.) On the other hand, I'm pretty sure we'd actually get Meditation T58 with overflow from Myst and the prereq bonus, so we'd only have two turns (or a die roll on the third) when it Buddhism could be be discovered elsewhere and make the tech worthless. (We'd have to watch the event log closely though!)
- I like all the other options, honestly, but I think I'd favor IW first, to find iron, boost our MFG, and get some more good tiles for Toregene and Oghul Qaimish to work. Writing is very good, but I think we want to wait until we're ready to go Writing -> Math, and I'm inclined to hold off on Sailing until we have a second coastal city founded. (Not just planned; it'll need time for its primary infrastructure before getting sailing-related things.)
- There are good arguments for any of the options though; it's your call all the way.
This turn Joey spent more than half an hour in the game. And then he logged back in after we played! It seems clear to me that he`s somewhat concerned about our buildup. If we see a phalanx standing next to our warrior on turn 55, we have to withdraw it. We could let our axe fortify in place for now to avoid an overreaction.
I`m happy about going Iron Working - Sailing (or Writing). We`ll get another luxury and at least another strong hammer tile (the jungled copper) plus maybe 2-3 other strong hammer tiles. We also get the chance of making Rtr swordsmen. They are very useful if we want to conquer a city. Buddhism will probably fall any turn now, let`s just avoid losing beakers on that.
Should be an exciting turn! GJ has already played, and he whipped again - probably his capital, but you never know - so I'm curious to see how he moved. I agree with you about our response if a Phalanx shows up near our scouting Warrior. If we don't see a Phalanx though - even if we see a Spear - there's an argument for moving our Axe up alongside the hill to make it very clear we want him out of that area. It might indeed provoke an overreaction, but if our axe then stops one tile away from the hill, it should (finally, at that point) make our intentions pretty clear.
I'd probably also still withdraw the Warrior even if there's no unit on a neighboring tile, though maybe only to the silver in that case, whence we'd have vision on the corn. And unless barbs show up someplace to the east, I'd definitely move Toregene's warrior toward the site of the riverside front city, to spawnbust against barbs and watch GJ's east.
If we're indeed teching IW next, we'll need to turn off tech for at least another turn.
And finally, an update to the suggested microplan above (still becoming a bit iffy as time goes on) even though GermanJoey may force it to change completely:
Still extremely rough around the edges toward the end, and there may be some questionable parts earlier as well. If it looks like we're going to be following a peaceful microplan after all, let me know what you think....
T55: The Worker on the Cow completes the Pasture. The Worker on the floodplain moves NW-N through the roaded river grassland to the roaded forest directly north of Borte and begins a Chop. The Worker on the "river" grassland near Borte moves SW-SE to a river grassland beside Toregene and begins a Road. The Worker on the forest hill completes its Chop. The Warrior between Borte and Muqa moves SW-W to join the Worker on the roaded forest.
T56: The Worker on the Cow moves 2SW to a plains forest. The Worker on the forest north of Borte continues its Chop but then CANCELS orders. The Warrior on the same tile moves 1W to the Oasis. The Worker on the river hill in Toregene's first ring begins a Road, but then CANCELS orders. The Worker on the river grassland next to Toregene completes a Road.
T57: Toregene is now size 3; it WHIPS its Granary (3 pop to 2) and works Rice + Furs. The Warrior north of Borte moves 1NW to the forest. The Worker on the roaded forest north of Borte moves 1NW to the grassland between the pig and oasis, begins a Road, and then CANCELS orders. The Worker on the forest near Muqa begins a Chop. The Worker on the river grassland beside Toregene moves 1S to the hill with the other Worker. The Worker already on that hill moves 1S to the jungle.
T58: Settler is complete at Borte, which resumes its Chariot. Granary is complete at Toregene, which resumes its Spearman. The Settler moves SW-2SE-S through the cow, hill, and river grassland to join the Worker on the river hill. That Worker completes the Road on that tile. The Worker on the jungle begins a Road. The Warrior north of Borte moves NW to the plains forest hill; the Worker nearby then moves NW-W to join the Warrior there.
T59: Chariot is complete at Borte, which begins a Granary. The Settler WAITS until the Worker on the jungle completes its Road; then the Settler moves S-SW to the site of Oghul Qaimish. The Worker on the river hill on which the Settler began the turn begins a Mine, but then CANCELS orders. The Worker on the plains forest hill begins a Road. The Worker on the forest in Muqa's first ring completes its Chop. Muqa WHIPS its Settler (5 pop to 4) and works Corn + Cow + Sheep + Fish.
T60: Settler complete at Muqa, which begins a Granary and works Corn + Cow + Sheep + Silver. Borte swaps to building a Worker. The Worker on the jungle WAITS for the nearby Settler to found the city of Oghul Qaimish, which begins a Monument, working the plains forest; then the Worker from the jungle moves SW-W through the city to the Corn and begins a Farm. The Worker on the nearby hill moves S-SW-S to a plains forest. Muqa's Settler moves 3SW-W to the roaded forest beside the Oasis. The Worker on the plains forest hill completes its road. The Worker near Muqa moves S-2SW to a roaded forest ("wasting" a worker turn on movement).
T61: Granary complete at Muqa, which begins a unit (TBD) and works Corn + Cow + Sheep + Fish. Toregene begins a Monument. The Settler WAITS while the Worker on the next tile over moves W-NW to the part-roaded grassland and completes the Road; then the Settler moves 2NW to the pig/corn site and founds the city of Chubei (going slightly out of order to save similar-sounding names for later cities) which starts a Granary and works the Oasis. The Worker on Chubei's plains forest hill moves 1S to the Corn and begins a Farm. The Worker on Oghul Qaimish's forest begins a Chop.
T62: Toregene is now size 3; it WHIPS its Monument (3 pop to 2) and works Rice + Furs. Borte WHIPS its Worker (5 pop to 4) and works Cow + Copper + Horse + Clam. The Worker between Borte and Chubei moves NW-SW through Chubei to the Corn and contributes to the Farm. Chubei switches to working the Pig.
T63: Worker is complete at Borte, which resumes its Granary, working Cow + Copper + Horse + Cottage (because the Granary's timing means the additional food from the Clams would be ~wasted). Monument is complete at Toregene, which resumes its Spearman. Muqa is now size 5 and starts a Settler, working Corn + Cow + Fish + Sheep + Silver. Oghul Qaimish works the Corn. The Worker on its plains forest completes a Chop. The Workers on Chubei's Corn complete a Farm, and Chubei switches to working the Corn. Borte's worker moves 1SE to the part-cottaged "river" grassland and continues the Cottage.
T64: Granary is complete at Borte, which begins a unit (TBD) and sets AVOID GROWTH ON while working Cow + Copper + Clam + Cottage. Monument is complete at Oghul Qaimish; it begins a Granary. The Worker on its Corn completes a Farm. ONE of the Workers on Chubei's Corn moves NE-W to the plains hill forest and begins a Chop. The other moves NE-E to the Pigs. The Worker on the river plains tile by Oghul Qaimish moves 1E to the Copper.
T65: Toregene is now size 3. The Worker on the "river" grassland completes the Cottage, and Toregene works Rice + Furs + Cottage. Borte turns AVOID GROWTH OFF. The Worker on the Pig begins a Pasture. The Worker on the Copper begins a Road. Other moves TBD.
T66: Borte is now size 5 with 21 food in the bin and works Cow + Copper + Clam + Horse + floodplain Cottage. Chubei is now size 2 and works Corn + Pig. The Worker on its plains hill forest completes a Chop. The Worker on the jungled Copper completes a Road. Other moves TBD.
T67: [TBD Unit] complete at Borte, which begins [TBD]. Oghul Qaimish is now size 2 and works Corn + ... lake? Chubei WHIPS its Granary (2 pop to 1) and works the Corn....
