First thought: Wow, things are looking great here!
Second thought: GJ's city popping borders this soon means I missed something, either in my culture calculations or in the city itself. Any chance I could see a zoomed-in shot of State of Zijin with "bare map" turned on and tile yields turned off? Best case scenario is that I just misunderstood the timing of his cultural buildings. Worst case scenario would be:
If GJ has had construction for several turns, he could have whipped an Odeon in State of Zijin roughly T94 or T95. This would mean he'll control the copper and bananas until Chubei hits 100 culture or we can run caste artists there. It would also mean Toregene will need another source of culture within the next few turns - though just a missionary should be good enough if it's soon. And, you know, it would mean he could build catapults. He still doesn't have any actual military, fortunately, so we have a little time - but this would make HBR a much higher priority.
Easy way to check for Construction: Look at rivers with roads on both sides deep in GJ's territory. If they have bridges over them, he has Construction. If not, well, then good.
Third thought: That iron mountain is hilarious, Mardoc.
Sure! Here`s a zoomed in screenshot of State of Zijin.
Toregene`s second ring tiles are at 89 % Khatunate culture. Nambui`s second ring tiles are at only 52 % so we`re losing them shortly. Not good. We desperately need more culture down there. If you can find an Odeon we need to prioritize military techs. Oh, I forgot to check for roads over rivers, will do it tomorrow.
Screenshots confirm State of Zijin's monument was completed EoT60, and therefore started generating culture EoT61.
In the most generous scenario, the game could consider it "built" in the year 1600, in which case it could start generating 2 culture per turn as soon as the year 600. Just to be completely ridiculous, let's pretend this starts even earlier, EoT89.
Total culture from monument, up to T89: 28
Max imaginable culture from monument, T89-T99: 20
Screenshots also confirm State of Zijin's barracks was completed EoT72, and therefore started generating culture EoT73.
It has been less than 1000 in-game years since T72, no matter how you slice them.
Total culture from the barracks, up to T99: 26
Screenshots confirm there was no library in State of Zijin as of T91. No screenshots were taken T92, so let's assume the library was complete EoT91 and started generating 2 culture per turn EoT92 (the earliest possible date).
Obviously it hasn't been a thousand years.
Max possisble culture from the library, up to T99: 14
Maximum possible culture in State of Zijin as of T99, from all known sources: ... 88.
So that leaves ~12-16 culture unaccounted for in State of Zijin. Where did it come from? The possibilities include:
- He teched up to Drama and ran the culture slider? (Ridiculous.)
- He teched all the way up to Music and built culture? (Preposterous, and the event log would have shown a Great Artist birth.)
- He teched CoL, revolted to Caste, and ran artists? (Impossible, per civstats, even with a golden age which he hasn't used either: He whipped this turn and there was no recent period of more than 2 turns in which he didn't whip at all. Also there would have been a notification about each of his civic swaps in the event log.)
- The game bugged out and doubled the culture of one of his buildings way sooner than it was supposed to? (I'm ... going to take it on trust that this one's a no.)
- The graphics glitched out and he has a religion in State of Zijin that isn't being displayed? (The event log should tell us if a religion spread there.)
- The graphics glitched out and he has a culture building in State of Zijin that isn't being displayed? (Ughhhhhh, how would we even ... ... wait a minute. GJ recently completed the Great Wall, and I already thought it was weird that there was no graphic around his borders. No way did he build it in an island city. I assumed he built it in some city that wasn't contiguous with the rest of his culture, but I also couldn't figure out why he would do that! Okay, Great General points for fighting in his borders, and Great Spy points for an invisible, unkillable sentry, but still!)
So ... maybe he built The Great Wall in State of Zijin and the graphic didn't show up because the display is buggy? Can we find out if this is true? Maybe! Here's how:
1) Scroll over to someplace normal like Borte.
2) Open up the Event Log.
3) Check to make sure therre's nothing really weird in there just because that's always a good idea.
4) Scroll down to the notification that GermanJoey completed the Great Wall.
5) Click on the notification!
The map should automatically scroll over to center on the city where the Great Wall was built. (It was definitely a city we already knew about at the time; otherwise the notification would have said "in a distant land" instead of identifying GJ as the builder.)
If it's State of Zijin then we know a display bug robbed us of 9 turns of knowledge about the state of the culture war, and we'll know what we're actually up against down there. If it's Heavenly Star, which will probably have the graphic displayed around it corectly in that case, it's still useful information, but I don't get how State of Zijin's borders popped ~3 turns early.
Finally, checking the tile percentages ... seems to support the idea that State of Zijin is currently making 7 culture per turn, on the assumption that each city puts 1 culture plus its natural cultural output onto each tile in its outer ring each turn. This would suggest that Toregene will indeed keep its BFC indefinitely, and Nambui won't reclaim the copper and bananas until a few turns after it pops third ring borders, but of course a lot can change in the meantime and with just one turn's worth of cultural numbers I can't be sure my conclusions are right.
It seems like madness, but the best move for Nambui might be to whip its Monastery immediately on T100, leaving it to work just the seafood and grassland cow (until growing back onto the plains cow T101). Moai won't finish quickly enough to contribute to the cultural conflict.
Also, I think (from Civstats) GJ probably landed another Wonder this turn: Maybe the 'mids? (Not in State of Zijin though.) It feels awfully late for that one to fall already....
It turns out that you were right about The Great Wall. When I scrolled back on the event list and clicked on the notification, the game centered on State of Zijin. That wonder is nowhere to be seen on the map but okay, we`ll have to live with it. No new wonders were built in the last couple of turns. Joey probably completed an expensive tech. We need to discuss our own tech path going forward. I figured Masonry would be a good tech to start with but it`s not urgently needed yet. Going for Metal Casting is tempting, though we`re not very likely to land the Colossus. Code of Laws would be very good. Also, Horseback Riding isn`t rally expensive any more..
We had a slice of luck this turn as we got a random Buddhism spread in the most unlikely of places!
As Toregene has a part built Barracks, do we want to finish it asap or should we continue building a worker/market? Whipping down Nambui to size 2 was no fun but it`ll regrow quickly. Muqa started a Temple but could build e.g another archer for Sugabala. It`s kind of back line but could in principle be targeted by Dark Savant. I don`t think he`ll be that aggressive.
Our settler on the stone is ready to build our 12th city next turn. I`m still nervous about a random attack out there but hopefully no one will notice our vulnerability.
Graphs and demos: We`re really struggling with production as it is. Fortunately, two iron mines, another mine and a plains cow will come online on turn 100 so we`re definitely closing a bit of the gap then. Food and gnp are still looking very good. At max science we have a gnp of over 200, on par with the leader. We`ve more or less caught up on power with dtay so short term our defenses still look good.
As the opening is more or less over and we`re heading to the mid game it`s time to do a t100 ranking which could be very off the mark. I`ll start with the players in the weakest position (as I see it atm) and move upwards.
Those who are out of the running
9. CH/Donovan Zoi of China is definitely in the worst position right now. Donovan Zoi seems to spend a lot of time in the game. That`s much better than the AI could manage. He should be at exactly 3 cities now, which is only a snack for one of the stronger neighbors (Krill or Joey). I`ll be shocked if he somehow can manage to avoid last place in this game.
8. Yuri of Russia is in a lot of trouble as well. Even if Yuri`s managed to get his civ up to 6 cities it`s not enough. Dtay and Couerva will finish him in the not so distant future. Of course, being hit by Couerva earlier didn`t help the Russian cause. If Yuri somehow can manage to run a farmer`s gambit to catch up with his neighbors in city count, then well done. My prediction: He won`t.
Those who have a realistic chance of winning the game
7. Dark Savant of Ethiopia is placed in 7th but could easily be considered top 4-5. The reason I put him this low is twofold. a) He`s got Gavagai, who`s a very aggressive player with no easy path to expansion next door. and b) He`s got the same problem as Gavagai and us (nowhere to expand on land). However, his mfg looks really good and he`s got this circumnavigation bonus, which is a big plus.
6. JR4/Refsteel of Mongolia. We`ve talked a lot about our situation already. We`ve got a very high gnp and crop yield. We`re struggling a bit on production but I don`t see it as a big problem. Our main concern is the lack of easy expansion once the undisputed lands run out. Joey settled up on us big time and we have a very bad border.
5. Gavagai of the Ottomans is certainly doing okay. He probably has to start conquering another civ in order to stay relevant in the end game. He`s got the same problem as Dark Savant and we do, no easy expansion options. My prediction is that he`ll have a swing at Dark Savant when he gets catapults. Gavagai`s not the player to sit around and twist his thumbs. He probably has an aggression rating of 8 or 9 out of 10!
The favorites to win the game
4. Couerva of Carthage has played a very strong game as far as I can see. A wild attack on Ventessel seems to have given him a Great General. He`s also successfully attacked Russia in the early game. I expect Russia to be divided between himself and dtay. The possibility of gaining half a civ worth of land puts him in a better position than us.
3. Dtay of Zulu. Well, dtay`s played a quiet game so far, he hasn`t really been very aggressive towards us. Dtay is very good at getting a strong start and I`m quite impressed so far. Also, playing 5-10 minutes turns at this stage makes it less probable that he`ll win but who knows? When Russla is divided, he might come after us.
2. Krill of Inca is in a very good position in this game. He`s got a couple of wonders and I expect him to build basically all the wonders on the top of the tech tree and get that Music artist. If he can get China`s capital instead of Joey, I might put him ahead of Greece. I`m pretty sure that Krill will compete for the win until the bitter end.
1. Joey of Greece is imo the slight favorite to win right now. He`s got an easy conquest and a favorable border with us. Also, the Great Lighthouse (and The Great Wall) will help him out massively. Especially TGL was a brilliant play on this map as he was first to understand how important it`s going to be.
Gotta love the pRNG results for religion spread this game. I'm glad it worked in our favor for once!
I'm glad the double mystery of The Great Wall and State of Zijin's border pop is solved, even though it's a frustrating bug. Also glad that GJ didn't land the 'mids (yet) after all. There may have been a bunch of land points from T80 border pop(s) involved honestly; I haven't been able to track that closely. Thanks for checking on all of this!
If we want to use tech to improve our hammer output, we can go Masonry -> Poly -> Mono and revolt to OR. If we want to use tech to get the culture war under control, CoL is the clear winner; it'll just take some planning to make sure we get the right whips in (and enough military well-positioned) before revolting to Caste. I think we should probably wait for OR before we tech HBR, just so we can build Gers with fewer hammers.
I really like the temple build in Muqa, by the way; good idea. (Nambui's next build should also be a temple, which we should be able to whip (4 pop to 3) the following turn (T102) before starting on a library.
I don't see any urgent need to resume Toregene's Barracks since it'll control its second ring continuously regardless and won't want to build any military units until its Market is finished at least. So I'd continue building the Worker when Borte needs the rice and the Market when Toregene can grow.
I don't think the window of vulnerability for Sugabala or Budashiri will be wide enough for someone to take advantage, especially since everyone's seen by now that we're in the habit of defending our cities well in general. Of course, by the same token, we can't let that window of vulnerability get too long, but we should be safe for a little while at least. Another consideration is that Krill isn't the only one who needs us to help keep GermanJoey contained....
I like your T100 rankings! I might quibble about the order of some of them, but not at 3:45 in the morning, and they look generally sound. We may be able to do something about a couple of those rankings though....
I`ve got bad news. The rng decided to spread Buddhism to the worst place imaginable. We`re facing an uphill struggle to keep hold of Oghul Qaimish`s second ring tiles now. Not to mention Nambui`s. The rng religion spreads haven`t really worked in our favor in this game. In 43 turns we`ve had two Buddhism spreads to our cities and now this.
On a brighter note, we founded our 12th city this turn, Dalyieyetimishi! I might just shorten the name a bit as it`s quite hard to remember. No enemy boats were in range of the new city and Bulugan`s making an archer which will complete in two more turns. Oghul Qaimish was whipped for 3 population in order to get out a settler asap. I still like the mainland spot with copper and shared corn but if we can find a defensive unit to cover it we might contemplate going for a greedier land grab instead.
Our settler on the galley NE of Kokejin is jumping off on the island between us and dtay next turn. A forest deer is a nice tile but let`s see if there`s more food there before deciding on a site. Dtay could, of course still be interested in that..
Next turn the gems mine will come online. It`ll be a very good tile for Toregene. More happiness is good for our biggest cities.
We`re facing an uphill struggle to keep hold of Oghul Qaimish`s second ring tiles now. Not to mention Nambui`s. The rng religion spreads haven`t really worked in our favor in this game. In 43 turns we`ve had two Buddhism spreads to our cities and now this.