Well, okay, let's assume most of the skill does go into unit buffs, city buffs and creatures - the other categories are marginal. (City buffs can be expensive because they are cast on all the cities which can mean 30+ times)
Creatures - we already know the AI is inefficient with these. I think it's a very conservative assumption to say at least 50% of their creatures won't be at a relevant location and/or get wasted. Either they stay guarding a city you don't care to destroy for a long while (yes that can include the capital, sometimes there is no need to attack it first, or at all) - or they get included in some random stay along with 8 halberdiers and get killed easily and they aren't good enough if not in a doomstack. So for this alone we probably need more than 50% discount and not on the highest level but everywhere except normal.
Unit buffs - the AI sucks with these. It's better now, but I risk saying much more than 50% of the buffs will still be on units where it won't make a difference, like that one strong unit which gets killed anyway because it's in a weak stack. Or simply, it's a buff not relevant to the game - Regeneration if its stack is losing the battle, Magic Immunity if it gets killed by melee units, Resist Magic against a Life wizard and so on.
Cit buffs - The AI is fairly good at these because "put all on every city" is not a bad move. However, there are city buffs that are completely wasteful to cast in certain cases, such as city defense buffs if your territory is not being attacked. Probably about 40% of the spells here are wasteful.
(note that all of these are random guesses)
So we have two major categories where the AI has a horrible (worse than 50%) efficiently, one that's slightly better, and then there are all those other categories where it probably is more or less efficient such as curses and global enchantments. that puts the overall efficiency somewhere in the range of 30-60% but the AI can't prioritize between the goals either, so while it has that much chance for a spell in a given category to be relevant to the game, that still doesn't mean it's the best option.
(as a human player, I often pick one spell and cast nothing for dozens of turns if that's my best option. The AI doesn't do this).
Overall, I believe not even the Lunatic 40% would be enough to make up for how poorly the AI picks spells, but fortunately they also get other advantages to fill in for that.
Finally, we can't improve the AI's overland spell selection in a way that changes this - the best play is deterministic and deterministic play can usually be exploited by the human player, so any "improvements" would actually make it easier to beat.
(either way, we have no way to measure how much casting advantage the AI "needs", so we have to keep guessing.)
Creatures - we already know the AI is inefficient with these. I think it's a very conservative assumption to say at least 50% of their creatures won't be at a relevant location and/or get wasted. Either they stay guarding a city you don't care to destroy for a long while (yes that can include the capital, sometimes there is no need to attack it first, or at all) - or they get included in some random stay along with 8 halberdiers and get killed easily and they aren't good enough if not in a doomstack. So for this alone we probably need more than 50% discount and not on the highest level but everywhere except normal.
Unit buffs - the AI sucks with these. It's better now, but I risk saying much more than 50% of the buffs will still be on units where it won't make a difference, like that one strong unit which gets killed anyway because it's in a weak stack. Or simply, it's a buff not relevant to the game - Regeneration if its stack is losing the battle, Magic Immunity if it gets killed by melee units, Resist Magic against a Life wizard and so on.
Cit buffs - The AI is fairly good at these because "put all on every city" is not a bad move. However, there are city buffs that are completely wasteful to cast in certain cases, such as city defense buffs if your territory is not being attacked. Probably about 40% of the spells here are wasteful.
(note that all of these are random guesses)
So we have two major categories where the AI has a horrible (worse than 50%) efficiently, one that's slightly better, and then there are all those other categories where it probably is more or less efficient such as curses and global enchantments. that puts the overall efficiency somewhere in the range of 30-60% but the AI can't prioritize between the goals either, so while it has that much chance for a spell in a given category to be relevant to the game, that still doesn't mean it's the best option.
(as a human player, I often pick one spell and cast nothing for dozens of turns if that's my best option. The AI doesn't do this).
Overall, I believe not even the Lunatic 40% would be enough to make up for how poorly the AI picks spells, but fortunately they also get other advantages to fill in for that.
Finally, we can't improve the AI's overland spell selection in a way that changes this - the best play is deterministic and deterministic play can usually be exploited by the human player, so any "improvements" would actually make it easier to beat.
(either way, we have no way to measure how much casting advantage the AI "needs", so we have to keep guessing.)