[SPOILERS] JR4 tries his luck in PB 37

[OT4E]

If we get a Priest we have a couple of options for it. As you said, we could build the Confucian Shrine. That will give our economy a nice boost. As long as the other players are in Thoocracy we won`t get any free Confucian spreads, but we could spread the faith manually when we get out of that civic.

Small note: you can spread religion manually even in Theocracy.

[RefSteel]

Seems like there's a whole lot going on in spite of the slow turn pace!

Cheers on the victory at Winterkill! We lose one Knight (I assume we didn't delete the Knight that razed the city this time, since it's doubtful Dark Savant could have killed it) to kill an irreplaceable (though poorly-promoted) Oromo, a spare Longbow, and a port & build queue, all while relieving cultural pressure on Fountain Head's coast and reducing Dark Savant's vision in the region. Harmondale will be harder to crack, but Dark Savant's military is in shreds right now, and tied up in garrisons. We can gather Knights in Nighon (they can get there directly from Fountain Head or the new city - "Junggin Khatun"? - overland) then land a stack of Grens and siege, covered by a couple of MGs, on that plains cow and send the Knights to join them. The siege should probably include all the cats we happen to have nearby that are capable of taking Barrage 2; the idea would be to send them in until a) we run out and have to start risking cannons, b) our hitters (or cannons) start getting good odds, or c) a D4 Oromo becomes top defender against a Pinch Knight. Depending on where our galleons and units are, we might not be far off from being able to take it. We could even start sending units overland now if we have the MGs to cover their advance and can't land a good enough stack in less than 4 turns.

Note Krill`s Chariot down there, maybe he`s still playing to win after all?

Oh. One thing to be aware of about Krill: He is always playing to win. If his position is completely untenable (say if he were playing Ethiopia right now) he plays to wreck his attackers as far as possible, but arguably if he does so well enough and some other things break his way, like his attackers get backstabbed by someone, he might survive and somehow claw his way back into contention for the win. He's playing shorter turns and hasn't updated his thread in a month (that's the saddest part for me) and may have to be replaced if the game runs too much longer, but as long as real life permits, in whatever time he's prepared to commit to each turn, he's absolutely playing to win.

Nighon now has a shiny new Guerrilla 2 Machine Gun, that will get an insane amount of bonuses standing on that hill.

Oh my goodness. So there was some point where I warned not to assume that one really good defender (like a CG2 longbow in its era) could hold off an attack. But I think we may have found an exception here. Dark Savant's best attackers against that thing would be something like C2 Charge Knights, and they'd be attacking as St 12 against St 27 - or worse if it has fortification bonuses! Against Oromos, Grens, and Rifles, even if it's unfortified and they have Charge, it's effective strength is 36! And when borders pop that would rise above 30 against Charge Knights and to nearly 40 against gunpowder troops. That's a pretty good defensive unit.

All those Great Generals being born and dying ... that's a lot of fighting going on between those two. If we manage to take Harmondale, I'm pretty sure we'll get another GG of our own too. But the Scientist is indeed great news - and our chance of landing a Prophet at Muqa should decrease even further over the course of the next dozen turn if we keep running that Engineer and all those Merchants, with prophet points coming strictly from the shrine - probably to about 14%.

I should also note that Oghul Qaimish probably wants a Stupa at the earliest opportunity. (Borte and Nambui will want them too, at a minimum, but they're more likely to be busy in the coming turns.)

Good to see Gavagai taking a city that actually borders him! I think I understand why he tried what he did earlier in the war, but I also think Dark Savant did a good job of demonstrating why you can't afford to get too cute with these things.

On tech path: I presume next is Philosophy -> Nationalism? Unless you think we'll never want to run Pacifism for the rest of the game, in which case we could just go straight to Nat....

[JR4]

Small note: you can spread religion manually even in Theocracy.

Okay, good to know! We certainly need a lot of Missionaries in order to spread the faith around. Getting the fourth and fifth religion might require multiple Missionaries, let`s hope that we get lucky. Fountain Head has Hinduism so if we land Islam eot we have access to 6 out of the 7 religions. A Taoist spread (or conquest of a city with Taoism) would be very valuable. Oghul Qaimish can start a Stupa next turn. If we are to keep our slim chances of victory alive, we need more culture in that city, Nambui and Borte asap.

The Knight that razed Winterkill is full-strength and has C2 and a pending promotion. If it survives next turn it`ll return to Fountain Head.

Also, I should add that you`re likely right in thinking that Krill is playing for a win only. The last war between Joey and dtay put both of them back significantly. If that second war that just broke out is real, Krill could be back in it with a shout. Actually, it`s impressive to be competitive while playing short turns. If Krill somehow finds more time to play it might turn out that his Culture Win attempt will be the most dangerous threat to Joey long-term. And just for the record - if you read this after the game, Krill - I`m not unhappy about you playing short turns.

We need to make a decision regarding our tech path. I think we need Pacifism in order to get our 4 man Golden Age. That is ever so important to us. And Philosophy should be very cheap. Nationalism is pretty expensive, but we get a lot of ktb. After Divine Right is in we`re only 4 techs away from Cavalry. It`s gonna take a while but Spiral Minaret/The Forbidden Palace should help our gold saving rate.
That means Philosophy - Nationalism - Military Tradition - Rifling.

Dark Savant is using all his gold on upgrades. No progress on Steel has been made over the last few turns. He`s going down but slowly. If we can get Harmondale we could look for more opportunities. Machine Guns are awesome stack defenders. Perhaps Dark Savant will just leave our stack next to Harmondale if we have something like 3-4 MGs protecting the rest of the units. We`re probably looking at a t122 landing. The logistics are still complicated as we simply don`t have enough ships to get all our troops over before that. Our island cities should provide 3 Galleons worth of units and the rest will come from the mainland. Walking a number of Knights over to Nighon is a good idea. They can join the rest of the units on the plains Cow next to Harmondale right before we attack. Our 3 Catapults should also join in but I`m a bit unsure how to do it. They could walk over land but it`s gonna take a while.

[RefSteel]

Small note: you can spread religion manually even in Theocracy.

I didn't realize this; thanks! I'll try to test it tonight if I get a chance, just to be sure (because I like testing things) but now that you say it, I'm sure you must be right.

That tech path makes sense to me.

On Harmondale, if we're looking at a T22 landing, slow-movers won't get there from Fountain Head in time. Since I assume our limiting factor is transport space, it's probably better to go with a few CR2 Cannons for siege instead of throwing Cats into the mix; we can't have another run of bad luck like the one at Fountain Head, right? (I'll try to sim it out to be sure the chances of that are as low as I think they are, but I admit a lot of my civ4 time is going to map prep for PB38 right now....)

[RefSteel]

Fortunately, my computer time is not as limited as my civ-playing time (at least today...) - which means I can catch up on my most-important job in this thread!

The Tragedy of Empress Gi and The Jewel of the Khatunate

Conspicuously left out of the so-called Hadad-Sujata population explosion were the intrepid clans of swineherds and fisherfolk who colonized the isle of Oljei Baajii in the Khatunate's name a generation later, and the people of Empress Gi:  The doomed Khatunate settlement on the lush, forested isle that the Ottomans would later name Inebolu.  Elders among the clans that founded the doomed city had first set foot on the isle as children, while the forces that led to the Hanging Gardens of Borte and the Hadad-Sujata explosion still were gathering far off to the east, but they wandered for years through the island's eastern woods before finding familiar ground:  The wide plains that bisected the isle, where horses grazed wild, seemed a most propitious site to their people, and their children would learn to ride upon the backs of those noble beasts.



By the time they found their way through the woods and began to establish themselves on the island however, the time of the Gardens had passed, and the lesser gardens they included in their plans for Empress Gi were merely part and parcel of the city, with no greater draw for the island's primitive peoples than their Toregene furs and jewels or their falconry.  So because of a narrow accident of timing, Empress Gi never grew into the city it could have been.  Perhaps had its people dared to crest the hill to the northeast, the high ground would have afforded them some protection, or perhaps had Sennacherib of Borte lived a generation later, they would have been included in the explosion - or it might not have occurred at all - but in the end, Empress Gi would last no more than a century before Turkic raiders set fire to its homes and granaries, and cut down all its people in their boots or in their flight or in their sleep.



As for the simple swineherds and fisherfolk of Oljei Baajii, on the opposite side of the Mardobiusc Sea, though their city likewise suffered from the Hadad-Sujata's timing, they had the good fortune of dwelling nearer the Khatunate mainland and bordering less-hostile waters, and barely knew what they had missed.  Even when their clam divers were muscled out of the local waters by cliff-divers from the isle of Vulcania, the people of Oljei Baajii adapted philosophically, and found employment across their northern strait with foresters from Radnashiri, trusting in the orderly universe promised by the Ruist writings of Confucius, a prolific second-generation Oljei Baajiian thinker who believed first and foremost in the power and importance of familial relations, a strong work ethic, and social harmony.



Yet even when that simple faith was challenged - news of major defeats in the Turkic war, contemporary with a wave of bhikkhunī missionaries arriving in Oljei Baajii from the mainland, were followed by widespread conversions to Buddhism in the city - and when half the people of the city were forced to trade their fishing lines for bowstrings in support of the war in the east, Oljei Baajii by and large held steady to the course set by its simple founders and codified by Confucius, working still for peace and harmony within their families and their city, trusting that their work would be reflected in their world.



It was the Buddhist western sea board that built the triremes and the Buddhist Khatunate core that trained nearly all the troops that chased the Turkic fleets away from Daliyetimishi and brought peace in the west after more than a century of war, and it was the Buddhist population of the northeast, led by a self-styled prophet of their faith, who finished the greatest labor in the history of the Khatunate a mere generation later - but the groundwork for that labor was laid in no small part by the dilligent example of Lǐshēng priests in Muqa's small Confucian community, founded by teachers of that faith some two and a half centuries before.  Whatever the causes that ended the war, and whatever the faith of the prophet Tomas Enetseg*, the Confucians of the Khatunate - like the Yevryeichüüd in their own way, in spite of being long barred from the city of Muqa itself - were instrumental in the project completed soon after the Turkic War, around the bodhi tree at the heart of Muqa:  The crown jewel of the Khatunate of Izabyella Khatun.



The Mahabodhi Temple, in all its beauty and spiritual splendor, would draw pilgrims from Buddhist communities around the world, making Muqa a major center of spiritual enlightenment - and the Khatunate's single largest source of spiritual, enlightened, beautiful, splendid money.

* - I here use the original name in the language of the Khtaunate, though it has been latinized by some historians as "Thomas Aquinas"

Image Credits:

Horses by the sea:  Photo by Edyta Trojanska-Koch
Ottoman swordsman:  Miniature sculpture by Andrea Jula, painted by Diego Ruina
Sculpture at a Confucian temple:  Photo by Bradley Mayhew
Mongolian island settlement:  Photo by Rolf Richardson
Mahabodhi Temple:  Photo by Bpilgrim, wikipedia contributor

[JR4]

Losing Empress Gi and Babukhan was a severe blow for us. If we had at least kept Babukhan we would have had a much stronger position in the middle game. And, I must say, Empress Gi was probably built in the wrong place. Having it on a hill - and defending it adequately! - would have been way better. Muqa`s Shrine is ridiculously good right now. It`s perhaps the most important asset of the Khatunate, making a cool 200 gpt for us.

I think we should act quickly and decisively in the attack on Harmondale. If it means that the Catapults won`t be able to take part, well so be it. I`d rather have more Cannons. And those 3 Catapults are still available for a follow-up attack if we can break through. Realistically, we can get something like 18 units from Galleons to the plains Cow NW of Harmondale plus all our Knights on t222. That should be enough.

Oh, and don`t worry about the simming - if you have time for that, then great. If you don`t, I`ll do as best as I can. PB 38 is surely going to be very interesting. It`s been a while since the last PB ended, so I`ll be lurking that one globally.

The turn pace in this game could have been better. Gavagai must be very busy these days.

EDIT: I forgot to mention in the last turn report that Joey built the Pentagon in Anchorage (the old Chinese capital).

[RefSteel]

Okay, I confirmed that we can spread non-state religions in Theocracy by using Missionaries; sorry for missing that - and thanks for the correction, OT4E!

I also briefly simmed a possible battle for Harmondale, and it looks like it would indeed be nice to have some Barrage 2 Cats along to suicide as the first wave of the attack. There's a bit of guesstimating involved of course, since I'm not sure what force composition we can bring to bear. Assuming we won't have enough Grens there to use them exclusively after siege (i.e. assuming we'll have to attack with Knights at some point) it'll be really important to collateral down the Rifles.

[EDIT: I somehow cross-posted four hours after the fact, but I broadly agree with your points. Whether it's a good idea to have cats instead of Cannons is really a question of whether Dark Savant upgrades a D4 Oromo into a Rifle, if I understand the odds correctly....]

[JR4]

 Assuming we won't have enough Grens there to use them exclusively after siege (i.e. assuming we'll have to attack with Knights at some point) it'll be really important to collateral down the Rifles.

We certainly have to bring some collateral. Those Rifles are good defenders against our Knights. Maybe we should bring a lot of Grenadiers also. Our island cities have quite a few of them already. If we can ferry enough of them over they can take down the Rifles.

Whether it's a good idea to have cats instead of Cannons is really a question of whether Dark Savant upgrades a D4 Oromo into a Rifle, if I understand the odds correctly....]

A strength 12 Cannon must surely be better than a strength 5 Catapult in any given situation? We should take into account that DS can get a lot of fresh troops into Harmondale before our planned attack date. Let`s see what the situation looks like this turn!

Ironworks+Divine Right gave us a huge increase this turn. That`s 46 points for us, lifting us up to fourth place again!

[RefSteel]

We certainly have to bring some collateral. Those Rifles are good defenders against our Knights. Maybe we should bring a lot of Grenadiers also. Our island cities have quite a few of them already. If we can ferry enough of them over they can take down the Rifles.

Obviously we want a lot of everything, but when loading ships for the attack on Harmondale, yeah, MGs, Cannons, and Grens are what it's all about. In particular...

A strength 12 Cannon must surely be better than a strength 5 Catapult in any given situation?

Probably true. I was thinking of a specific case with one or more G2 Rifles and a D4 Oromo, but since he could upgrade the latter to a Rifle after we land anyway, and it's not entirely clear the cats give us a real advantage even if he doesn't, since we're limited to 18 total slow-movers plus however many Knights can ride out to join them and maybe a couple MGs if we can get them into Nighon this turn without delaying the overall attack.

Ironworks+Divine Right gave us a huge increase this turn. That`s 46 points for us, lifting us up to fourth place again!

Don't look now, but Dark Savant just took back another city - gotta be Garrote Gorge with its obsolete Wonder pair, I think - and we're 67 points ahead of Gav on the score chart! That may be temporary, and it's peanuts compared to the gap between us and dtay, but ... what I said before about Gav getting cute with his attack paths applies in spades. His tech path too, for that matter. He has cannons, and those are great, but they don't defend well against rifles, and his ships can come out of drydocks, but they still can't kill stacks or take cities, and apart from that, those two are at military tech parity.

It's not all Gav's fault, obviously. Dark Savant has executed some brilliant counter-attacks. That's a lot harder to do against us, since we're fighting on our border where we can reinforce rapidly (as you brilliantly demonstrated in Mist back when we were fighting him single-handed) - especially since now he'll be facing stacks protected by multiple MGs.

[JR4]

TURN 220

As expected, we landed Islam. That`s our fifth religion! The exact location was.. Danashri. That was a size 16 Buddhist-only city prior to this turn. I thought Islam might end up in Nighon or Oghul Khomish but no. Actually, I quite like that location. Danashri is a strong city that could produce a number of Islam Missionaries over a short period of time. Our free Missionary tried to spread the faith to Borte (which only had 3 religions)....


   

Success! Hmm, should we let Borte 1 turn a Monastery after Spiral Minaret is finished? SM was a 4 turn build but when a couple of Scientists were reassigned as Engineers we were able to cut a turn off that eta. Beautiful! Oghul Qaimish started its Stupa. Nambui could build one soon but it`s got a number of competing priorities right now. We`re building a Galleon that`s neccessary to ship over enough troops for our planned attack. We`ll get at least 18 quality units over in time and perhaps more but Dark Savant`s garrison is growing ever larger. He`s now got 6 Grenadiers, 3 Rifles, an Oromo and a couple of Longbows in place. There`s another Grenadier S of Harmondale. How many units will it take for us to call off the attack? I haven`t really got a feel for that. For now I`d say press on. We`re finishing 2 Cannons, a Knight, a Grenadier and an Ironclad eot (in addition to that Galleon).

The War Weariness keeps going up, Sugabala is now unhappy. It should be back to happy next turn when the whip anger cools off. Annoyingly, Vulcania was a few hammers away from completing the Forbidden Palace with a 3 pop whip but next turn we can finish it. Oh, and we got another city this turn, Junggin Khatun! It`s defended by a Grenadier/Musket pair.

As for geopolitics, Joey and dtay are still at war! Joey finally killed off that Zulu Frigate near Chabui and he`s got a Galleon/Frigate pair in our waters. Gavagai did indeed lose Garrote Gorge to Dark Savant this turn. So we lost Mist`s seafood yet again. Oh well, our Work Boat returned to the city and will return if Gavagai reclaims the city.