[Spoilers] Shallow Old Human Tourist Hit the beach!

[shallow_thought]

I edited your sandbox to be the right world size. https://www.dropbox.com/s/jm24798ko2lub0...dSave?dl=0

I juat picked huge - didn't try to be too precise; I should have said. I asumed that we'd probably need to redo it in detail anyway once picks were finalised - I don't know any way to swap leaders/civs, although one may well exist.  FAKE EDIT: it's just a text file, isn't it? Live and learn. Great - don't have to rework the rivers in the BFC!

[Hitru]

Hi all,

I am new here , but have been lurking in realms beyond for quite some time. I do not have time for taking responsibility of a primary turnplayer but would like participate in some way. I have really liked your previous threads OH, and would hence like to be a dedlurker for this team, if you will have me?

[Fintourist]

Greetings Hitru,

and welcome aboard, glad to have you. 

Currently we are using google hangout/chat for constant spamming and discussion. This thread will probably be used for a bit more summarizing higher quality post such as turn reports, etc. There are no definite guidelines re how the reporting will evolve during the course of the game though. Let us know whether you would like to join the team chat or prefer to communicate through this thread.

[Hitru]

Thank you!

I would like to join the chat and participate in scheming. I have not used google hangouts before, can you invite me using my gmail account, or what should I do?

[TheHumanHydra]

Willkommen. Yeah, private message someone your Gmail address.

[Old Harry]

Welcome Hitru! Hopefully you'll find productive work in the SOHT collective. Obviously our most important goal is to win the post- and thread-view war, so the more the merrier!

I'm afraid I can't think of a way to work your name into the thread title - does it mean something or is it your actual name?

[Old Harry]

We will keep Persia

We will re-roll our leaders

Message ends.

[Fintourist]

To give you some background of this exciting decision (there is not much else to discuss yet), here is a rough analysis we made to help us:

To sum it up, we ended up liking roughly one third of the civs more than Persia and considered one third significantly weaker based onour start, settings, etc. We are pretty much in the middle of the pack of civ quality, probably a bit below.

At the end of the day the rough calculations indicated that we would need to be quite lucky to get a significant improvement to our civ quality while the chance of ending up with a weaker civ is bigger. And in this case the risk scenarios definitely outweigh the positives as starting with e.g. Fishing/Mysticism would be suicidal. With Persia's solid Agri/Hunting we at least know that we can play a competitive early game and should not be terribly behind by T50

Btw, do not judge me for the very rough UU/UB evaluation. It was done in 3 mins without remembering what half of the units/buildings do. Conclusion was clear enough so there was no need to fine-tune this further..

[Old Harry]

For the leaders it was an easier choice. We may have mentioned that we want a Spiritual leader, and there are ten of them out there. We'd also be happy with a combination of PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG  (another ten out there). IND is the weakest trait for us on a map where we hope our neighbours will build us some wonders and we expect commerce to be more of a bottle-neck than production (forges). We'd probably still take it with SPI though.

With two new leaders I believe we have 65% chance of getting a SPI leader or two of PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG on the next round. (We'd take 20 of the 50 remaining leaders. So our odds with the next pick is:
20/50 + 20/49 - ((20/50)*(19/49)) = 65% - is that right?)

Although presumably the leaders in the PRO/EXP/IMP/AGG/ORG pool will have a lower rate of getting discarded, while SPI leaders are more likely to get ditched, so who knows what the real odds are...

[Cornflakes]

I'm no statistics expert, but that formula doesn't look right (I hated statistics class ... mostly because the teacher was a retired millionaire businessman who just wanted to pass the time in his retirement ... and told us this at the start of almost every class ). If you're looking for any 1 of the 20 leaders (out of 50) I think your odds would be 1-((30/50)*(29/50)) = 65% ... oh, wait, that's the same % ... I don't know enough about statistics to know why both formulas get the same result