Well it looks like Joe Manchin bullied Chuck into folding. (Holding his seat could lead to a SC justice or two which is too much.) He might not be present after 2018 but after that the DREAMERs are deported anyway so there's no hard deadline anymore. So the DEMs are going to reach 2024. They're going to win but they faced an unworthy opponent who gave them a sixteen year head start and threw away using 9/11. I'm pretty much done in this thread due to lack of further interest.
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Politics Discussion Thread (Heated Arguing Warning)
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January 31st, 2018, 13:45
(This post was last modified: February 4th, 2018, 16:19 by MJW (ya that one).)
I might as well give my final Senate update right before I tune out politics. I'm sure that the DEMs will be content to use my strategy of just letting Trump turn out their minorities for them (this is also evidence that they really don't care about them--they just want their votes). Now there's a good chance it won't work as well for them as they expect because the turnout was inflated by Moore and Charlottesville but the momentum will keep them on board with the plan after getting some success with it.
After getting some success the DEMs will be able to stop the GOP from doing anything more. I suspect in this final term, in which the GOP can do something, it will just pass immigration reform (using the DACA deadline) and an omnibus budget bill that stops blue states from tax-dodging and bumping up the employer mandate to 500 from 50. Collins and M-something will get bullied successfully because they are on thin ice and McCain will get okay with anything because his legacy is now secure. Nothing will happen after that until the DEMs abolish the filibuster (2029?). I've change my rating system. I will no longer use "safe" ratings because something dumb can always happen like in AL and MA. AL if you remember had an incumbent and the current IN up got in because the incumbent went down, so we cannot call incumbents safe too. So I will rename it to solid. Because it's okay to be wrong sometimes I can add VA and TX to solid. They are very unlikely to flip but they could happen. It's also more instructive to not even list the "solid" D's because it gives the wrong impression on the likeliness of the Senate to flip. Also, things tend to break one way so the DEMs chances are also far higher than it looks. If they when TN for example I would be shocked if they didn't win the Senate. At this time I think it's a 33% chance. Updates: NJ: He won't be retried again so this is now solid. I'm also counting on the GOP not being able to run a real candidate here too. It would have happened right after the retrial was announced if it was going to happen. FL: My list is pretty bullish on the GOP in general, compared to others, so it doesn't make sense to leave this in Lean D for me anymore. MS-S: I don't think this will happen anymore. OH: Polarization, a real candidate and OH's red shift give the GOP a reasonable chance here still. MI and ND are in danger of not getting a good GOP candidate which would bump them up to Solid and Lean respectively but it's too soon for that. If I put ND at Lean D now I would have to bump it up to Likely D after they fail to get a good GOP candidate which I would not be comfortable with a Cook PVI of R+17 (greater than AL!). I should also remind you guys that the only reason that ME isn't Solid D is because I feel that he has a very good chance of getting spoiled. Likely D: MN-S, MI, PA Lean D: WI, OH, ME, MT Toss-Ups: AZ, MO, IN, NV, ND, FL Lean R: WV Likely R: TN Edit: I've changed my mind about leaving out the solid stuff; that's just silly. There's also a good 538 article explaining that Cruz is in a much better than what 8% suggests. I've also replaced Lean with Favored because it look's cooler. This is just not worth own post. Solid D: HI, CA, MA, MD, VT, NY, WA, RI, MN, CT, DE, NM, NJ, VA Likely D: MN-S, MI, PA D-Favored: WI, OH, ME, MT Toss-Ups: AZ, MO, IN, NV, ND, FL R-Favored: WV Likely R: TN Solid R: WY, UT, NE, MS, TX (January 31st, 2018, 15:01)AdrienIer Wrote: The last poll in Texas has Cruz at +8 against his likely D opponent, despite the name recognition difference. I don't think Texas will flip but it will be closer than most people expect. Yep, Texas can flip via Cruz just losing but it's very unlikely; not just unlikely.
Adrien, while you're around; what's with the "based Macron" vibe?
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Oh, he just seemed about as globalist as they come upon election and the media gave him tongue baths, they seem to have cooled of late I've heard him quoted sounding vaguely pro-French. But given the attention span of American media (somewhere between goldfish and coked-out-puppy) particularly out of the Anglo world, didn't know if he was really going rightward or not.
If only you and me and dead people know hex, then only deaf people know hex.
I write RPG adventures, and blog about it, check it out.
Economically he's right of center from a french perspective. Proof is that the main right wing newspaper organised an event "Is Macron a right winger ?" and don't bash him as much as they used to.
On the international stage he's been close to perfect, using the lack of leadership from other countries (Brexit being a mess, Germany being without a real government, the US being an outcast) to rise as one of the main players. He's definitely not a protectionist but like most people he doesn't fit right into a label. The best comparison I can make is with Obama but it doesn't fit very well because Obama tried to pull the US to the left when Macron pushes France to the right. |
