RB Pitboss #3 [SPOILERS]- Suryavarman II of England

[Cyneheard]

Well, France made their second mistake of the war.

Their first mistake was allowing us to steal their workers. Their second mistake was killing both of our chariots. Especially because they left their damaged spear in Paris, not their healthy one.

Paris is dead. :2dance: Krill took 40% odds with his WC on the spear, and killed it. If he'd failed, our chariots would have cleaned up and killed Paris ourselves.



So, with the spears being where they are, and a Byz chariot ready to intervene, I think we need to flee those spears. E-NE, and being able to hit Rheims on T80, is the only route that gets us away from the Byzantine chariot and those spears. And if Rheims is too tough, then we don't attack it. If not, then France has 1 city left.

HRE will have 2HAs able to hit Orleans across the river on T80. France will only have 1 spear back, but may have built a warrior. If they've built a warrior, then there's no chance they can hit Orleans. If not, though, they might take a shot at it. Well, maybe. They get ~30% odds to win with 2 HAs against just that spear.

CHANGE OF MICRO PLAN:
Doc, who just roaded the stone, is going to move to a DIFFERENT forest to chop it. Why? So that we can get a catapult out of BR ASAP.

[Cyneheard]

War chat:

Me, Krill, HRE:

Separate chat with Krill to follow separately. Very simultaneous, though.

Krill: we going to figure out what to do now Paris is dead?
me: we have 2 chariots, that can head straight for Rheims, they won't have anything worse than archers at most. we've got to get away from those spears
Krill: I think that is the best thing to do. just move them, one at a time E then NE
me: actually, other option:
no, wait, doesn't work. was thinking about meeting HRE HAs and hitting Orleans
Krill: to stay out of range of the Byz chariot that is 2S of the copper
me: I can't believe they did the damaged spear first. did they really think we wouldn't go for it? I mean, even if you failed our chariots were going to succeed
Krill: they might have thought that they could upgrade immediately which is a no no
me: unless you had the XP already, but they attacked first with the damaged chariot (which made sense) then saw that it couldn't promote and THEN used their good spear?
Krill: he did the first attack this morning about 1100 then attacked with the second one after 2pm today so spent a while to think about it...
me: the 1st attack made sense, but...wow
Krill: yeah, just threw away the advantage that popped copper gave him
me: That makes 2 tactical mistakes in this war. First mistake being the workers that we stole
Krill: yeah not exactly the brightest bulb in the room
me: The 1-warrior Lyons wonder was a strategic mistake, I'll grant them that one
Krill: yeah, I'd tend to agree with that.
me: there was no way they could save Lyons
Krill: Not thanks to that one move
me: even if they had a spear Lyons would have died. we'd have been without an army
Krill: but without a copper pop paris would still likely have been burnt to hte ground so we'd be in a similar position
me: true, and your WC is clearly very dead
Krill: yup either to byz chariot in which case they won't ever get peace out of me or to that spear
me: we've got a Byz Woody II off of our borders it's probably going to heal this turn
Krill: possible to threaten it at all?
me: actually, yes. I've got an HA in range
Krill: already?
me: can hit it next turn
Krill: or does it have to move? awesome
me: The HA killed a barb, 5.6/6, but Combat 1/Shock
Krill: nice. part of me says whack the warrior
me: since we move first in the turn
Krill: er not necessarily
me: true. once your WC dies, we should try to get you onto our part of the turn? might make life a little easier
Krill: Post about it publicly, yeah
me: you know what happened? They thought they could move their spear back 1/2 a move to move onto the road and then 1/2 a move back
Krill: possibly
me: so, Orleans will have 3 spears to defend it and any warriors they may build or whip
Krill: if they attack my WC with a spear, only get 2 spears max won't be back in time to defend against HRE
me: 2 spears however can handle 2 HAs
DIM: what's that about Byz??
me: they've got a chariot 2S of the copper, 2E1S of ex-Paris
DIM: did they declare?
me: no
DIM: not much they can do with that chariot
me: right, as long as we stay away which we have to do anyways
DIM: so we wait until we've got our HA army assembled?
me: to hit Orleans?
DIM: yeah
me: assuming no Byz intervention. Orleans will have 3 spears on: T79 (1 promo), T80, and T82 (1 promo) unknown warrior counts. note: That's during their half of the turn. so, actually your 2 HAs might have a chance on T80 to hit just 1 spear
DIM: they are only in position to attack T81
me: if there's a warrior as well Then definitely not. Orleans? go straight across the road
DIM: unless i hit them across the river
me: 2 HAs against 1 spear? is your HA that popped the barb damaged?
DIM: we'd need to calculate the odds. no
me: right, That's good. So, assume 5% fort, 1 promotion, 20% culture
DIM: where is that second spear
me: and hill. they've got a spear on their gold
DIM: moved it this turn there?
me: yes. oh, wait... no, that was last turn
DIM: then they'll just move it back into the city
me: that's the spear, that I though would get there T79. it's actually in Orleans this turn
DIM: ok
me: undamaged and 2XP
DIM: and where is the second spear?
me: it moved 2SE to threaten our chariot stack but it's off the road so needs 2t to get back
DIM: good to know, because I was going to move my stack next to it
me: and, that's 2SE of Orleans
DIM: so I move W of gold on the forest
me: or onto the sheep. actually, I'd do that. lets you pillage the sheep. if you don't want to take the odds especially if it's spear + warrior
DIM: so next turn the spear that moved will be SE of Orleans
me: and the other one will either be on ex-Paris killing Krill's WC or SE-S of Orleans
DIM: depending whether it kills WC, maybe I could try to take out the spear SE of Orleans
me: not a chance. you're coming in from the west, they'll enter Orleans after you on T80. If your HAs succeed then France is down to Rheims if we back off then they'll have 3 spears there
DIM: so you're saying I should try and hit Orleans?
me: I think it's worth taking a risk to end the war T80. we can go for Rheims first and if that succeeds, then definitely take a shot. if it's just 1 spear. I'd pass if it's spear + warrior since your odds are functionally zero to win in that case
DIM: yup. does the first HA have a chance to win?
me: 1.29%
DIM: however minimal lol
me: actually less: .85% (river). oh, maybe it won't work
DIM: so we could end up with an undamaged spear after the first attack...
me: 20% odds of that, actually of being undamaged
DIM: hmm. so if we don't hit Orleans there'll be at least two spears against 4HA
me: on T80 your collective odds to win are 32%. realistically, closer to 25-30%, since if you do 0 (20% odds) or 1 hit (26.5% odds), it's not worth going for the 2nd HA
DIM: yup
me: there's about a 15% chance you'd do enough damage for a guaranteed win. 15% for slight odds in favor (55-45), and 22% for a long-shot (28% to win)
DIM: once he sees the HA i'm sure he'll whip a warrior though
me: true
DIM: Orleans must be at size 2
me: it is
other idea: end a turn 2W of the sheep so 4W of Orleans and 2E of the copper then out of nowhere you can pillage the sheep. well, slight danger of a spear being across the river and 1 SE of the sheep on a road but you'd back off have 2 HA being 1W and 2W of the sheep. so if they hit your 1st HA, you'd counter and kill the spear. does this make sense? or is it pure ?
DIM: that's T80 then as well. nope sounds plausible
me: and I doubt they'd have a spear 1SE of the sheep
DIM: the spear across the river would be the one not killing the WC?
me: no
DIM: or the one moving back into the city?
me: the one that just moved back into the city this turn, it was on the gold last turn
DIM: ah ok
me: killing Archibald the Grim our chariot
DIM: poor Archie
me: he got a worker and pillaged gold
DIM: fine days' work. This is going to end up with France having just Orleans left
me: I hope so
DIM: 3 spears and 2 warriors inside
me: maybe more warriors. we'll just bring up some catas and axes as well
DIM: and us trying to amass enough troops to take em out. think it's going to take that long?
me: HAs aren't going to break Orleans alone
DIM: you're probably right
me: we can get 1 cata + 1 axe very easily around T90. probably T91 for the catapult? well, an extra turn to cross the river
DIM: bah that sucks. still can't believe they popped that copper
me: I know, but the copper is gone. well, useless now
Krill: they got owned, be happy
me: I am. 3 chariots and 1 WC
DIM: well me too
me: for Paris, a new city, 2 workers and a spear + 2 warriors
DIM: yeah they're not coming back from that . if that spear does take out WC and gets damaged, we should be able to take it out before it reaches Orleans?
me: hm.
DIM: ah scratch that. forests everywhere. didn't even have the decency to chop them all
me: yeah. well, he'd have had more chops, if we hadn't come along. :P
DIM: ok. so we go for pillaging sheep?
me: I think so
DIM: or do I try to take Orleans
me: 32% odds to take Orleans. well, 30%
Krill: er
DIM: without a warrior
me: about 40-45% to only lose 1HA
Krill: they might move a spear towards Rheims
me: and back off, I hope so. we can hit Rheims
Krill: yeah
me: long before those spears could ever reach
Krill: the point is
me: we can hit Rheims first
Krill: do we want to entice them to move towards rheims
DIM: we could try to lure the spear, exactly
Krill: ie slow play rhiems
me: can't, really
Krill: then destroy it after they waste a turn moving a spear towards it
me: because of the spear placement
Krill: and not towards orleans
me: we have to move E-NE next turn, or else something can take a shot at us, but HRE has to decide next turn if they're going to take a shot at Orleans or not. or, at least, if it's going to be possible to take a shot at Orleans before France makes any moves. T79, I think DIM wants to move onto the sheep and then either pillage-move back or take the shot
DIM: yup
me: one HA, can go NE-NW to scout Orleans, and be safe from counterattacks. we'd leave them with 2 improved tiles. a farm and a cottage
DIM: if they didn't whip a warrior (which would be mighty stupid), I think we can take a shot
me: well, considering France's tactical play so far
me: I wouldn't rule it out
DIM: what happens to a spear build once copper disappears? does it change into a warrior?
me: probably sits there
DIM: ok
me: don't know but Orleans would only have a few hammers
me: they slaved T77, had just the hammers built that turn in overflow
Krill: the hammers in the spear stay there
DIM: ok
Krill: but the spear is no longer buildable
me: it's probably just 3 hammers
Krill: if they get copper back, the spear build reappears
DIM: so next turn they'll start a warrior
me: uh, 5 hammers
DIM: and because we move first
me: they start a warrior this turn
DIM: they'll whip it at 20 hammer. oh yeah they can change the build so they'll have 30 hammer. two warriors at least
me: Warrior available T80, and available T81. capped overflow limits them
Krill: actually, might not whip. won't know until they play
me: they might go for walls. they have Masonry
Krill: might not think that there are HA incoming. walls makes sense
me: they'll see the HA T79. but, walls won't be whippable
DIM: nope
me: unless Byz sends them stone. Byz has stone connected and probably a trade route
DIM: they'd still be able to whip a warrior
me: right
DIM: but that's about it. so did we confirm Orleans is at size 2?
me: yes, it is. we've got visibility, and they haven't gained pop points
Krill: fwiw. there isn't really anything wrong with turning up with a bunch of cats and 2-3 axes and killing them later on. if we keep them bottled up in 1 city
me: true
DIM: ok
me: but if 2 HA can kill immediately then it's done. we'd hit Rheims first and if that works then DIM can consider taking a shot or not
DIM: yup. either that or we pillage the sheep
Krill: yeah, pretty much
DIM: and wave at them while we move past. ok, I need to go, Cyne you hit Rheims next turn or T80?
me: T80
DIM: ok
me: we're 4 tiles away as long as our teams aren't moving simultaneously
DIM: ok we'll wait for your call then
me: then it's fine. right. or Civstats
DIM: better start drafting that war declaration see you guys later
me: ok, have fun

[Cyneheard]

Just me & Krill; HRE never saw this one at all:

Krill: Paris is dead
me: Just saw, they were idiots
me: how much gold did you get from Paris?
Krill: wow, just noticed. thanks for that heads up. 110? So, about enough to keep Carthage running for how long?
me: 5t. They're 80/21 as in 80bpt
Krill: jesus
me: at 21gpt costs. we're...uh...47/23 but only +13gpt @ 0%. casualties have ensured that we can get Monarchy T81
Krill: hmm, I'm at 41/19, working gold and silver
me: casualties and the 10g in pillaging. we'll get our silver soon
Krill: solid
me: with 14 pop 47/23 and best being a furs tile
Krill: I'm not actually working the silver or gold atm, currently working 4 priests
me: I'm happy with that. double-bulb of COL and Theo?
Krill: yeah so beaker wise that is pretty good, considering not using scientists
me: HRE just told us their ETA without us asking at least directly. we talked with Mukha about tech ETAs
Krill: cool. Anybody have any clue what I'm planning on doing, as far as you can tell?
me: doesn't seem like it. Portugal doesn't know what you're doing and might be concerned
Krill: yeah, wouldn't surprise me. I'm kinda out on the edge right now though so need to be careful
me: right, hunker down and build some military
Krill: Got Byz, possibly portugal and Ottomans not liking me yeah yeah. currently building missionaries
me: well, our goal is to come up with our own supply
Krill: of what, missionaries?
me: well, the Philo bulb. it's 50% to get our own religion, 50% the tech to trade. We'll have to rethink, if someone else gets Philo first what to do with the GSci
Krill: tbh, I doubt it
me: same here. with the limited Philo [OOC: teams]
Krill: could always sell it to Carthage?
me: yeah, post-war. we'll trade some Combat II HAs for Shock Numids. get something with odds against a spear
Krill: nice
me: even a Combat I spear and their biggest danger is HAs, so, I think it's win-win. I'm worried about an Otto-Carthage war would be ugly
Krill: tbh. you could do a deal with them to trade paper for Philo. that would be fugly. otoh
me: Carth? Or Ottos?
Krill: would help everyone else catch up. between the two, I figure it depends on what you and I do if HRE step in, then it is a 3v2. And I can help out with some very cheap WC 2 promo, so it wouldn't be wise for Ottomans, or rather, for HRE to step in
me: if HRE didn't step in then we'd probably gift a few HAs and that would be it
Krill: and with cats for Carthage but not Ottomans? Otto would not be wise to attack
me: right although it does look like this is going to be a 6v8 unless Rome and Portugal really settle their differences
Krill: this is?
me: the split? in general
Krill: so we are the short side? oh yeah
me: in numbers but not in teching
Krill: Need to get maya and babylon ready to hit byz IMO
me: and not really in hammers
Krill: yeah, Aztecs, Inca don't really count
me: and what will Rome/Portugal do? will they stay and fight?
Krill: I don't know. I think it depends on what we say to Rome
me: at least it's been bloody so far No contact
Krill: Yeah
me: I think we both need to talk to Byz
Krill: I just did. they don't like me. I'll forward you the chat, it was pretty brief. sent
Krill: If France still exists after the split, this gives us a good reason to continue working with HRE and stopping them from hitting anyone
me: good point. how bad will them getting beat on COL be?
Krill: they might hate me for a while. you are probably ok
me: true. I don't know your COL plans
Krill: bulb t87
me: that was also a "plausible deniability claim"
Krill: you still don't... fwiw, that is just the basic mm. it isn't locked down, and never will be, so don't worry about it
me: right. and our Philo bulb would be planned on HRE COL
Krill: so you are fine
me: yeah
Krill: productive day
me: definitely. makes me feel much better about this war, was looking like a slow, somewhat expensive stalemate then they got stupid
Krill: I'd rephrase that. then they continued their stupidity
me: true. oh, HRE should put 1 HA 1W of gold and 1 HA onto sheep next turn. the 1W of gold gets Orleans visbility
Krill: good idea
me: already sent them the e-mail

Byz/Krill chat:

Krill: Just a heads up, but I can see your chariot next to Paris. or rather, where Paris used to be.
Byzantine: yup
Krill: I suppose it is a simple question. Do you intend to help France? Byzantine: In what way?
Krill: Dunno. maybe gift the chariot. maybe attack mine or Englands' units.
Byzantine: Who can say? and why would I tell you anyway?
Krill: shrug France is going down. They lucked out with the popped copper, but even that hasn't saved them. It would just be unfortunate if you annoyed all of your neighbours. but hey, your game.
Byzantine: Right now france is keeping you, one of the best players in this game, tied down. so it makes some sense to aid them, yes? what would you suggest otherwise?
Krill: lol. I just took out paris with 1 WC. so no, not really
Byzantine: yes good job freeing land up for England and me too
Krill: Figures. Enjoy the preparation for the gang bang later on. Go get some lube
Byzantine: hahahaha

[haphazard1]

Very nice work with the war and micro plans, Cyneheard.

Some chariot losses were inevitable once France got the popped copper. But with Paris gone they are once again without metal. The end should just be a matter of time, unless they get strong reinforcements from someone.

At what point do we fit a settler into our build queues, and start claiming some of the land which is being freed up? We don't want all the benefit to go to other civs, after all.

[Cyneheard]

Our next settler will probably go to the sheep/wines to our NW; let's get something between us and the HRE before they claim that.

I'm trying to organize the next round of research within our little split of 6 teams (Maya/Mali/Babylon/Carthage/Egypt/Us). With Krill's huge pile of cash (his last pic from T77 had 160 gold. That was before taking Paris; he'll probably be over 300 now).

Post-COL (HRE says it'll come in T90), HRE will be whipping their Rats everywhere and getting city expenses knocked down, so I suspect they'll push to expand heavily over T95-t110.

[antisocialmunky]

I'll play the turn in a few. Just need to move the chariots around and the micro shouldn't take oto long.

PS. I wonder what Sullla is posting in the lurker thread?

[Cyneheard]

So, HRE goofed, and entered French territory under OBs instead of declaring war. This means that we can't go for Orleans, but instead sent both chariots towards Rheims, and can hit it next turn.

Richard Leveson, our HA that slew a barb last turn, gets to fight 2 more this turn. He's going to live (99%+ to survive both fights), but he might take a fair amount of damage. The first fight, the odds are 50% no damage, 30% 10 damage, and 13% 20 damage.



Set us to 100% science for this turn; next turn, we'll see what all we have to do to finish Monarchy. Depends on Rheims; if we burn Rheims, then we'll definitely have enough gold to finish. Decided to start Operation Great Wall, or at least leave us the option, by starting to quarry the stone. It's also 2 hammers. All 3 of our established cities will be growing on T81. And Monarchy will be coming in. And the silver will be online.

I think we'd might as well revolt to OR and HR, get both of those done in a single turn. Even if we do lose the Philo bulb, we can still get access to a religion via Carthage.

[antisocialmunky]

Won't upkeep for OR be pretty high?

[Cyneheard]

OR costs us an extra 1gpt a turn.

[T-hawk]

Richard Leveson, our HA that slew a barb last turn, gets to fight 2 more this turn. He's going to live (99%+ to survive both fights), but he might take a fair amount of damage. The first fight, the odds are 50% no damage, 30% 10 damage, and 13% 20 damage.

Curious as to where you're getting those combat numbers? Working them out manually, maybe with aid of a spreadsheet? Or is this a worldbuilder test with some kind of mod for combat odds detail?