RB Pitboss #3 [SPOILERS]- Suryavarman II of England

[Cyneheard]

Forgot to post this:

[Cyneheard]

Orleans has a Combat I spear (fully fort), a bare spear (fully fort?), and a warrior (will be at 10% fort, I think). Remember, the barb axe is attacking the city this turn (nothing to pillage).

So, been running some numbers on the probable fight tomorrow. I'm assuming the unpromoted spear @ Orleans will be fully fortified.

We have 3 HAs in range:
HRE's Combat I HA
HRE's 0XP HA
and our Combat I/Shock HA

Against that spear at full health, while crossing the river:
(Spear status given):
Combat 1 HA:
22% of 70hp.
37% 55hp or fewer.
52% odds to kill @ a 69hp spear

Bare HA:
33% 58hp or fewer.
47% odds to kill @ a 68hp spear (That's the break-point, more HP than that is ugly)

My shock HA:
42% of 55hp or fewer.
54% odds to kill @72hp.

So, if the Combat I HA goes first, 59% of the time my Shock HA would be able to get odds.

Oh, and the barb axe has 25% odds to kill the Combat I spear; most likely it'll be at 44hp or something like that. So, assuming that Combat I spear survives, but is weak, I'm hoping for:
Combat I HA attacks fully fortified spear. Does substantial damage. Ideally, 55hp or fewer.
HRE HA #2 attacks. Decent odds to kill the spear, depending on the HP situation. This is why mixing the order would be really useful: Especially if the spear is at 70hp, I'd really want to attack right then and there with the shock HA. But, that isn't kosher. Which makes sense.
The Shock HA kills a spear.
That leaves:
Probably 1 badly damaged spear.
A warrior. The Black Prince gets 74% odds to kill the warrior. With Hugh's high level of HP damage, he needs to fight a damaged unit, like that spear.

If the HRE does this, sending both HAs in first, then I'll probably owe them 1/2 the gold from the Orleans capture.

[Cyneheard]

Let's see, what all happened this turn.

1) We got The Great Wall. :2dance:

2) France still lives. The barb didn't do enough damage (2.1/4 health) for us to be reliably able to kill them, so we didn't attack.

3) Diplomacy...where do I start?
a) Portugal is NOT in PAT. They've bailed, and have told our deal to everyone. I'm angrier over how much they told everyone, not that they bailed.
b) Offer made to Byz to bring them in to PAT. Not sure of the response yet; Babylon's doing that.
c) Rome's going to get an offer? I think? But it'll be "tech parity for fighting Portugal", not last turn's "tech parity for NOT fighting Portugal."
c) Byz got to us before that, accepting a Monarchy for 200g deal.
d) We have traded our horses to Babylon. They gave us Rice, so we can declare war to end the trade early if needed.

And 4)
a) We got Metal Casting from Maya.
b) The axe did NOT enter our borders, so I revolted to HR/OR right away. Then realized that we could've waited for Bureaucracy to double-revolt to OR: it'll cost us 2gpt in upkeep costs to be in OR, and would only be a few turns between bulbing Philo and getting Civil Service; Carthage has started it.

[Cyneheard]

I think finishing the library here from overflow next turn makes sense. We'll be growing very quickly, probably plan on whipping the forge before too long (when we hit size 7?)



Army's still there, waiting to attack soon. I suspect T87 the 3rd spear will enter Orleans.



Demographics:
Note the power lead...it's...uh...plenty. Maybe the NAP extension with HRE wasn't such a good idea after all... More HR garrisons for us, I guess.

Long-term, we're going to have 3 city sites near HRE territory: Edinburgh (the sheep/wine site. It's to our north, has sheep, and alcohol.), AF, and BR. My tactical plan is to have 1-movers in each city as HR and defense garrisons, and the mounted stack sit at a location that can reach all three city sites in 1t. The wheat is the ideal spot to do so; 1S would work as well, and would be less visible. Any 1-move possibilities (via the corners of culture, or where our culture isn't dominant) will be scouted by having Sentry chariots, either in our borders or in neutral territory. To our south, well, if Byz is out of PAT, then we'll set up some sentries there.

[haphazard1]

Things are looking pretty good, Cyneheard!

France is still a blight upon the world, but that should end soon. Hopefully our wounded chariot is using the extra turn or two to heal a bit more.

Diplo sometimes falls apart. People are in, or out, or tell all, or whatever. One can only do one's best.

We got the Great Wall, so of course the barb did not enter our borders. Isn't that the point? I'm curious, though -- no visual effect for the Great Wall in that latest screenshot of BR?

Plans for defense sound good. We should be strong for a while, although the rapid tech pace will soon obsolete our existing units. Still useful for HR and basic garrisons though.

What is our current GPP accumulation? Is Philo still the plan, or will some philosophical civ handle it?

[Cyneheard]

Philo is still the plan. T96 (India, I know you're also working on a mixed-odds GS/GE bulb. We're almost certain to beat you to this one, unless you started planning this by T65. And if you did that, while preparing for your war, well, then you'd be doing what we did. But we didn't have nearly the pressure for our war that you did. And if you were starting that early, you'd have started a few turns before that, and put off the useless Prophet until later). If Taoism isn't available, then we'll see what we do: We're at 48/100 GPP, and this turn is a revolt. AF's at size 6, working Pigs, Wheat, Cottage, Horses +2 scientists for +3fpt.

The Philo civs in the game:
Only 2. Krill's got his Great Prophet plans; he needs a GSci to pay back India for its Great Prophet, assuming that still happens, and he's about to pop his 200-cost GPP.
Pericles of Babylon has already built 1 Academy. If they're going for a 2nd GSci, it'll cost the same as ours, but ours is 1/2way done.

With this turn, the question was "do we build first, or does the barb move first"?
10t without horses: shouldn't be a big deal; we've got a sizable mounted force already, and some axes, catapults, archers and such. I should probably add some spears to the mix, though. I think we have 3 axes, 1 catapult, 3 archers. 4 chariots, 4 HA.

[antisocialmunky]

So what the heck is going on Maya? I got all the emails and it seems like they traded MC to India against Krill's embargo. The mass emails to everyone is a little annoying since its not clear who is being addressed...

[Cyneheard]

Short answer of the Maya thing:

Maya still made the trade (by gifting MC this turn; Aesthetics should still be T90) with India. The goal is to embargo Calendar + Currency for Aesthetics, since Construction is NOT going to India.

[Cyneheard]

Portugal:

Well, they owe us for having been given Monarchy, and not having returned much of anything (We got Sailing, they got Archery: even trade there).

So, here's the deal:
Forgive the Monarchy debt, as well as Alphabet from Krill. In exchange:
T130 NAP (inclusive of T130).
Krill + Portugal work out a settlement deal.
No 3rd party gifting for fighting any of the 3 of us.
No ROP for invading armies.

And I guilt-tripped Mukha a bit.

Willem: hey in our chat before, I remember telling babylon and maya that we won't forget their tech trades to us. but I didn't tell you or carthage
me: one of these days, you'll have something
Willem: both of you have given us techs without anything in return
me: we got...uh...Sailing.
Willem: heh
me: and you got Archery
Willem: oh well in that case! consider the debt paid
me: as well as Monarchy...
Willem: and construction from carthage. ok well we'll think of something
me: and Math
Willem: considering you guys will have the tech advantage on us
me: I hope so.
Willem: for a long time to come. If I can't think of a tech that I could get before PAT, a tech that's useful enough for us to be able to trade to you without feeling like you should just wait until PAT gets it then we may have to consider repaying with units or Great people
me: Ideally, there won't be techs where there's a big difference, but, I'm sure we can work something out with Great People and/or units. (note: 1 Great Person is more valuable than 1 Classical tech)
Willem: yeah. considering they can bulb a ren tech
me: well, most of a Ren tech, unless it's a GSci. A Great Merchant will NOT fully bulb CS although would probably get pretty close
Willem: no that's right
me: it's 1440 beakers. Huge/Emperor...much higher costs than we're used to
Willem: yeah. How do you calculate how many beakers a great person is equivalent to?
me: A GSci is worth 1.5 times anyone else. the other GP, 1000+ X*Pop. X is 10, I think [OOC: LURKER BEG: Anyone know? I've tried to find it, but can't.]
Willem: i see. wondering if you guys ending up getting byz on your side. at least that would create symmetry. it would truly be top vs bottom TBG
me: at least once France dies. very different method of teching, though
Willem: yeah
Willem: I think we need to request another mistake reload. we'd like to reload to the snake pick
me: haha
Willem: we did that wrong
me: "We'll take Ragnar" from you
Willem: lol
me: I'd hope Sury still fell to us
Willem: heh yeah
me: somehow, I doubt that would happen
Willem: willem/portugal were both typos. surely we shouldn't continue to be punished
me: Portugal, definitely.
Willem: because Dantski isn't a proficient typer. willem/greece would have done ok, just hate their starting techs
me: Terrible starting techs. terrible terrible terrible. there's a reason I shot that down from the new PBEM
Willem: ahh yeah, but those are AW games. anyway, best not to dwell. we just need to dig ourselves out of this hole
me: I assume you have peace, then?
Willem: close to I think. the problem is there's a bunch of teams (funnily enough they are now all non-pat) who don't like doing diplo which is the reason they are all non-pat
me: oops?
Willem: ?
me: that that's what happened. but, yeah, Inca and Rome especially
Willem: yeah, they all believe that they just got unlucky that the diplo shuffling happens randomly and they simply want to play loner games
me: Byz doesn't play a loner game. they're playing a freelancing one. very different
Willem: yeah
me: The metagame limits its usefulness, but they're playing the loner game right
Willem: so anyway. i guess you got your own back through byz sharing our stuff
me: Offer for the Monarchy debt: Sign a T130 NAP with us and Krill. You and Krill can negotiate a border deal. No 3rd party gifting for war-purposes against any of the three of us, and same deal for ROP of armies.
Willem: hmm that sounds pretty good, I'd need to check with dantski, is krill happy with this?
me: yeah, he is
Willem: i hope that doesn't mean a t130 attack though
me: also covers Alpha debt. No guarantees, but that isn't the plan.
Willem: just know, that what I said before to you and carthage about the trust with you guys still stands. by far the biggest reason i had to decline was because of HRE/otto
me: yeah, I figured. They were semi-bluffing on how quickly they could get to you
Willem: yeah, I know, but really with war with rome already
me: you bailed hours before we could've bought off Rome
Willem: i had 45 mins left in the turn. gah. yeah, probably made a huge mistake [OOC: Yes, yes it was.]. hey, ok we can agree to that NAP. sounds good. so can we consider that officially signed?
me: yeah. Krill can set up a composite map to negotiate a settlement line between you two
Willem: ok cool. just in case something bad happens can I just say t130 nap is inclusive of that turn?
me: yeah, sure
Willem: ok

[Cyneheard]

T87: Nothing terribly interesting. Conan killed an axe @ Aztec land, needs 3t of healing, but is at 9/10 XP! I told Ruff we will not be entering their borders, but healing in place without getting ganked by a barb would be nice.

We might be the first civ to unlock the HE, if we get one more barb kill. If we do, I think I'll ask Babylon for their marble once they knock out GLib.

Well, this is interesting. No, we cannot talk about it to other civs. Was trying to lead him to Engineering, without giving anything away. That Guilds is a high priority should shock no one. I was NOT letting them know:
a) We're not going straight for Eng. Low-priority; 3-moves is nice, as are pikes. Neither are critical.
b) Philo bulb. NOT risking India doing something crazy, like switching to Caste System.

Sorry, don't fully trust you. Yes, previous conversations didn't have a confidentiality agreement. But that was pretty bad, sending the charter out.

Willem: hey. you around?
me: yeah
Willem: So I realize you don't owe me this at all, but I was wondering if we could keep this conversation between us?
me: ok
Willem: you know a while ago I was hoping you and egypt were going to send in the SWAT team for a hostage rescue
me: ah, right
Willem: but a. I'm not a very valuable hostage, and b. There are better targets
me: well, NAPs gave us some coverage from HRE/Ottos and Egypt hadn't committed to sending a thing, and wouldn't, probably
Willem: basically I'm allied with people who aren't my friends. ahh right, but he's probably pretty happy to commit the other way
me: he's got 2 dead neighbors, he doesn't need a third
Willem: heh yeah he'll be building for a while
me: a long time, probably; he's not Joao this time
Willem: well we have no hope for a win, but we are aiming to become at least a financial power and do something tech wise. losing a city, and giving away a settler put us out of the race and being pillaged
me: this is a long game, there's time
Willem: I don't want to be teching things that are useless to trade later when it all becomes clear soon enough that a guilds slingshot is not feasible
me: Great Merchant's the only way to bulb Guilds, and won't get you 1800 beakers unless you can tech Engineering first and get a GE
Willem: well I mean we could try to get guilds in whatever way, but not feasible because even if Byz does join us I'm thinking they will be eliminated around t110
me: I will neither confirm nor deny such claims [OOC: Also, I don't know how we'd respond to Byz saying no. I hope with the , but will Maya and Babylon do it?]
Willem: heh. well anyway, this conversation is between us only right
me: right
Willem: i just want to tech things that are useful to my rescuers, and not useful to people who have either declared on me or threatened to
me: well, Guilds is a high priority; with or without Byz. but can you think to match the beaker outputs of Pacal, Ragnar, or Pericles?
Willem: i think i can quite effectively with caste? I have no option but to try, saving money doesn't look good
me: your team's got to pick up Currency and Construction though. if you want something to trade in with, look at the round of techs that we'd be doing after this one
Willem: i see
me: you can't beat us to the next round. Funded research with Currency
Willem: so all of literature, engineering, machinery, philosophy, CS, and feudalism are covered?
me: not all. Lit's absurdly cheap, 360 beakers isn't going to get you in the trading game. CS is obviously critical
Willem: and every man and his dog is going to research it. anyway, you're right about the round after as the diplomatic status wouldn't changed by the next
me: not a chance, unless you switched immediately. and, to be honest, that type of in-and-out would look really bad to everyone
Willem: lol yeah
me: 3 sides in 3t... a new record! Heck, 4 sides, really: CAN --> PAT --> India ---> PAT
Willem: i'm not asking to switch really, i'm just seeing our side disappearing
me: well, Byz has to make their decision. India, Ottos, and HRE are the top-tier in that side at least, presuming Byz goes PAT
Willem: would be totally mad not too, if he does it's game over, for the rest of us slightly sooner, if he doesn't it's game over for Byz even sooner
me: Byz plays their cards very close to the chest; it's hard to tell what they want
me: England needs its sleep