[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, if we don't get the reload, I think we should try and raze that city to found La Venta. We have a window with the new treaty with Superdeath, and it's unlikely that shallow_thought would send a substantial garrison if he didn't know he was in a race.

However, if we do manage to do that, I would suggest putting La Venta on a hill for the defensive bonus.

[Magic Science]

I'm with you in needing a reload, although I think it's fairly safe to say that shallow_thought probably didn't realise he was in a race, since we didn't either. I'm not sure what the usual ruling is when this sort of thing comes up.

To be clear, I don’t blame shallow_thought and Hitru for this at all. I’m not angry with them. They didn’t knowingly do anything wrong. They couldn’t have seen any of my units before settling their city. If there isn't a reload, I won't consider them cheaters or anything.

Mostly I am angry with myself for taking a minute to look around before settling La Venta. Why is it that every turn-timer-delaying drama in this game has to revolve around me?

Well, if we don't get the reload, I think we should try and raze that city to found La Venta. We have a window with the new treaty with Superdeath, and it's unlikely that shallow_thought would send a substantial garrison if he didn't know he was in a race.

However, if we do manage to do that, I would suggest putting La Venta on a hill for the defensive bonus.

If we don’t get the reload, then I will see about razing their city. However, I am not optimistic about success. They appear to have completed several units a few turns ago, and I would not be surprised if those units are now garrisoning the new city. Additionally, the forces that I could rally to attack aren’t really that impressive. Axeman Three on Turn 62, Archer Three on Turn 63, Archer Two on Turn 66, and Axeman Two on Turn 66 as well. Even a mere one or two immortals would stop that cold, and even attempting it would give Superdeath an opportunity to attack again in ten turns. If we don't get the reload, I will probably just have to turn the garrison, workers, and settler around to go settle the city in the east.

[Commodore]

It's hard to say, man. Sucks no matter what happens.

[Magic Science]

It's hard to say, man. Sucks no matter what happens.

I don’t envy your position as the one who has to decide this, that’s for sure. I don’t know what I would do if I were the third party who had to arbitrate this situation. I mean, obviously it would be good for me as a player if the reload happened, but from the perspective of looking for what’s fair, I don’t know. I can see reasonable arguments for both reloading and not reloading, and I could understand a decision to go with either one.
What do you do when none of involved parties acted like jerks? We could always try rock-paper-scissors, best of three.

[Magic Science]

Turn 61 - 1560 BC
Well there isn’t going to be a reload for me, so I am not going to get to found La Venta and I am now even more horribly doomed than I was before. Why couldn’t I have just played the turn BEFORE lunch, not after? Or taken one less minute to look around before starting to move my units? Or taken one less minute to eat my lunch? If any of those things had happened, then I would have won the settler race and founded La Venta. In a way, I am even more upset about this than I was about Superdeath razing Old Hong Kong. I lost Old Hong Kong due to my own error, but I lost La Venta due to awfully bad luck.

Okay, rant over, back to the game. Not getting to found La Venta is very bad, even worse than it may initially seem. Due to this map being small and my neighbors deciding to move in on me from all sides, I am going to have a pathetically small number of non-jungle mainland cities. With La Venta, I was going to have six. Without La Venta, I am only going to have five. The decline in potential from six to five cities is obviously quite sharp, and it is further compounded by the fact that without La Venta I will not have a single early game luxury resource! My cities will be stuck at size four (well, Cuzco will be stuck at size five) until either Iron Working or Calendar! I was wrong to rate Charismatic so poorly during the picking phase, that’s for sure.

   
With those ideas in mind, I decided to send in Axeman Three to try to fix the problem of not being able to found La Venta with some…uhh… aggressive negotiation, let’s call it. I did realize that the chance of success was low, but I decided that the potential rewards of razing Duncan Q were too great to pass up the chance.

As you can see, shallow_thought and Hitru had two Combat I + unclaimed promotion axemen in Duncan Q, so Axeman Three isn’t going to be able to succeed in his mission. It looks like I will have to turn around Settler Four after all. I promoted Axeman Three to Combat I in case they attack and sent them a peace offer. If he survives, then he will go back north to garrison another city, but if he dies, then I won’t be too upset. Thirty-five hammers is not a very expensive cost. In any case, the real cost of this war is the diplomatic cost. shallow_thought and Hitru aren’t likely to trust me very much in the future, so I might lose out on some trade deals that I could have had or (at worst) see some units of theirs coming at me at an inopportune time. However, I already expected them to eat me eventually, and I don’t expect them to ruin their game by attacking me before the time is right for them (considering the fact that they are one of the top two civilizations right now), so I am not too worried about the diplomatic cost either.

Also, RFS-81 encountered my units with his scout this turn. I am still putting all of my espionage points on Coeurva+OT4E, because I am a lot more afraid of them than I am of RFS-81+haphazard1.

EDIT: I sent a PM to shallow_thought and Hitru about the war situation. Here is it:

Hello shallow_thought, Hitru, and any other teammates that you may have.

We are now at war. You have the first half of the turn timer and I have the second half. I know that we were logged in simultaneously earlier this turn, but I did not do anything other than look around during that time, so I don't think that there should be any complications arising from that.

Have fun!  

[Hollybombay]

How would you currently rank the field? Any plans to stay in the game? Do they involve blood?

[Magic Science]

   
In the aftermath of the Judgement of Turn 61, I have been reconsidering my analysis of my long-term situation and strategy in this game. Earlier, I said that I planned to avoid doom by growing to the point that I was the strongest of the snacks. However, I now think that I was wrong to consider that plan workable. I was probably wrong even when I was going to have La Venta, but I am certainly wrong now. Let me try to explain.

For the sake of example, let’s say that on Turn 100 shallow_thought+Hitru and Coeurva+OT4E both rank 10/10 on the civilization power scale. Meanwhile, RFS-81 ranks 1/10 and I rank 2/10, maybe 3/10 if I have played particularly well. Those numbers are just made up, but I don’t think that they are that unreasonable. I am going to have five non-jungle mainland cities and no early luxuries, while some others could get 8-10 non-jungle mainland cities and multiple early luxuries. The jungle is unlikely to help me make up the gap either. Others could probably beat me to Iron Working if they wanted, and the few jungle spots would be slow-growing and indefensible even if I did get them first.

So, it is true that as a 2/10 I would be a more difficult opponent to conquer than a 1/10, but for the powerful big sharks the difference is going to be so small as to not be a significant factor in decision making. If there is some other reason that makes me a better target, then they will take it and steamroll me with only slightly more difficulty than they would have had RFS-81+haphazard1. I am particularly worried that Coeurva+OT4E will decided that the Incan League matches their empire better geographically than the Psychedelic Warlords do, as I am on the same coast as them while RFS-81+haphazard1 are across the jungle belt. Another likely reason is that one shark attacks RFS-81+haphazard1 and the other decides to eat me rather than contest their fellow for RFS-81+haphazad1’s spoils.

Basically, just growing is not going to be enough to deter being eaten.

However, I have another crazy plan. I never seem to run out of those, do I?

   
The key is the island seen above (sorry for the old screenshot). I don’t know much about it yet, but I suspect that it has room for a decent city or two. On a human-designed (thank you again Commodore ) map like this, I would be surprised if it was just a one-tile no-resource tundra wasteland. What would the point of it being there be if there was no incentive to divert material to settle it?

   
Also, I think that this map in general isn’t very navally-oriented. Moncacht-Ape, may he rest in peace, managed to scout the entirety of the coastline between Cuzco and Superman, and he saw no sign of any islands between us (sorry again for the old screenshot). I think that the rest of the map will roughly mirror this set-up (otherwise it would be unfair), so it is possible that the only islands on the map are the ones each of us have by our capitals.

So, what does all of that have to do with my plan? Well, if all of that is true, then my plan would be to set up a fortified outpost on that island to buy me some extra time in the game. Unless the island is much larger than I think, my mainland will be larger than it. I expect the hungry sharks to go after my mainland first. I don’t plan to leave my mainland undefended or anything like that, but I would ship a disproportionately high number of troops to the island. After the fall of the mainland, I expect that it would take a little while longer for the attackers to ship troops up to the island to attack. Remember, I am assuming that there aren’t very many islands on this map, so the attackers aren’t going to have a large fleet of galleys already built for some other reason (such as colonizing a large chain of islands).

The dream scenario for this plan is that I have a giant stack of fortified longbows to greet them when they arrive, and then they decided to turn around, go home, and give me peace after seeing my units, having decided that it isn’t worth it to fight through all of those units for one or two tundra cities.

Maybe it won’t turn out like that at all, or maybe some of my underlying assumptions are wrong, but I feel like I should at least try something. I think that I will have more fun (and hopefully lurkers will be more entertained) by trying a plan like that instead of passively following the normal path at a weaker level than the rest of the players until I get eaten.

I’m still working on the details, but the immediate steps to this plan are to settle my two remaining mainland spots, then get Sailing and go for the island.

EDIT:

How would you currently rank the field? Any plans to stay in the game? Do they involve blood?

It seems that you posted that while I was typing this post. I think that this post answers your second and third questions. I don't think that the standings of the other players have changed that much since my tear list on Turn 51, but I will give you an updated answer for your first question in my next turn report.

[Mr. Cairo]

settling the island(s?) would be a good plan anyway, so I'm all for it. Also, do you think you could do a dot-map for your planned cities?

[Magic Science]

Turn 62 – 1520 BC
   
shallow_thought and Hitru accepted my peace treaty without even rejecting it and sending it back, so Axeman Three survives. He will now come home to garrison Almaty, although I am going to have him stop to pillage the out-of-culture road along the way. I am concerned that shallow_thought+Hitru could use that road to attack Sidon.

While I’m at it, there are three other minor details about shallow_thought+Hitru that I would like the mention. One, they have improved and linked a horse tile now, so we need to watch out for immortals. I think that I should include some spears in the next round of military builds. Two, they have Writing now, as World Maps are listed as trade items on the diplomacy screen with them. The rules prohibit trading maps until Paper, but it is still nice to know that they have Writing. Three, I think that they have five workers. I saw a worker named "Edge" by Duncan Q.

   
Meanwhile, Superdeath has moved up a settler towards us. I had suspected he was going to do that ever since his axeman started fortifying there. I am not too upset about this. I couldn’t have put a city there anyway due to lack of food (the rice and corn are in range, but New Hong Kong needs the rice and Wonder Woman controls the corn). A cultural war for the rice could be annoying, but New Hong Kong has a significant head start. All in all, it’s not too bad.

However, my relative lack of concern about this occurrence has not stopped me from pondering how I could burn or capture the new city in the near future. I can see the new city tile, obviously, and, if I understand the vision rules correct, he can’t see New Hong Kong’s city tile. This means that two-movers stationed in Hong Kong could attack Superdeath’s new city with no warning, and he can’t do the same to us. I would need to build a road on the rice first, but I could do that on the turn of the attack to maintain the element of surprise. Furthermore, the garrison of the new city is currently only axemen, and my new eastern city is about to obtain horses…

There is of course a good chance that Superdeath’s new city gets an impi to bolster the garrison in the coming turns, but I think that building a force of a few chariots just in case an opportunity arrives would be a good idea.

   

settling the island(s?) would be a good plan anyway, so I'm all for it. Also, do you think you could do a dot-map for your planned cities?

The cities are planned to go where the signs say they go. Almaty goes one tile west of the sheep. However, I was thinking more about where to position Almaty and I realized that if it went on the hill two tiles west of the sheep, then there would be room for a filler city two tiles north and one tile east of the sheep. Considering how few cities we are going to have, that could be worth it. I need to try some simulations to help me decide.

The unnamed eastern city goes one tile east of the horses. I would love to put it on a hill, but I don’t like any of the hill options. The deer needs to be in the BFC, and the only hill that would fit that requirement (one tile south of the deer) has a painfully slow start. Maybe I could try chopping the forest that the deer is on? It seems awful, but maybe it could work. Again, I need to try a few simulations to figure out what to do.

How would you currently rank the field?

I still say that the big sharks are shallow_thought+Hitru and Coeurva+OT4E, and I don’t think that either has pulled ahead of the other by enough to promote or demote either one a tier. One thing that has changed is that I would now switch the rankings of Superdeath and Charriu+Zalson, so Superdeath is now a minnow shark and Charriu+Zalson are a small shark. Superdeath does have more cities then them, but his population is less than half of theirs, going on a third. I think that Superdeath has been overzealous in his application of the whip. Lastly, I do think that I am starting to pull ahead of RFS-81, but I wouldn’t say that it is quite enough to reclassify myself as a big minnow yet, so there is no change there.

[Magic Science]

Turn 63 – 1480 BC
   
I was looking through all of the informational screens this turn when I noticed what you can see above: Coeurva+OT4E has apparently declared war on Superdeath twice!  I find this piece of information to be very, very interesting. I wonder if those two declarations of war have anything to do with why Superdeath offered me peace immediately after razing Old Hong Kong, or why he moved his impis in such confusing ways between the First War of the Leagues and the Second War of the Leagues? Adding to my interest in those two wars is the fact that I have seen no city losses or significant power drops from anyone, so it seems unlikely that the two wars amounted to much of anything.

My guess is that Coeurva+OT4E declared war just to see what Superdeath was thinking. It seems plausible to me that their Cloak and Dagger is better than mine (not that hard to manage ), so they noticed Superdeath completing multiple impis around Turn 35. They might have then decided to declare war and send peace to either confirm that the impis were going to go somewhere else (if Superdeath signs peace) or get warning that they were coming for them (if he doesn’t). Ten turns later, they noticed that he had completed some more units, so they did the same thing again. Ten turns after that, they have enough units to feel comfortable in their defenses, so they remain at peace to avoid antagonizing Superdeath and killing their future trade routes again. Maybe things would have gone better if I had tried that sort of thing with Superdeath?

Getting Coeurva+OT4E’s graphs in a few turns will help by providing some more evidence for or against that idea. If their power graph doesn’t have any major drops, then it would be a strong sign that the two wars did not involve any actual fighting.

   
Back to the present, this is where we stand at the end of Turn 63. I did some more simulations and thought more about the dotmap (signmap?), and I am now pretty happy with what I have come up with.

I decided that Almaty needed to be shifted over to make room for another city: Cape Town. Almaty’s development will not be significantly worsened by this. It will be founded a turn later and won’t be able to share as many tiles with Cuzco, but that’s about it. Defensively, it is on a hill now, so that’s good. However, it is slightly more vulnerable to galley attacks, and I think that Superdeath will be able to see the city tile with his culture. I hope to mitigate those problems by garrisoning Almaty well at all times.

Cape Town is a rather mediocre city that will have to steal all of its tiles from Cuzco, but I still think that it is worth founding. It is another build queue and four more citizens in a civilization that is desperately starved for both space and happiness. Cape Town will also be cheap in maintenance and easy to defend.

Geneva is the city that was the hardest to decide about. The simulations confirmed what I already thought: settling on the hill south of the deer is painfully slow in comparison to settling on the flatland east of the horse. The hill defensive bonus is extremely tempting for a border city with Shaka of Rome, though. In the end, as you can see by the sign, I plan to go with a faster start instead of the hill defensive bonus. It is just so much faster than the hill city, and I need to close the development gap as much as possible as quickly as possible. Also, the flatlands spot gets the horses hooked more than ten turns faster than the hill spot, which makes a plan to attack Green Lantern (Superdeath’s new city near New Hong Kong, seen in the corner of the above screenshot) much more reasonable.