[SPOILERS] Charriu and Zalson are fighting the honorable post count war!

[Mardoc]

At this point I planned to attack with another swordsman against an archer, but contrary to my simulation I only had 30% odds instead of 67%. I don't know what went wrong here. Would I have noticed that my simulation with World Builder is bad, I would have stopped my attack earlier.

Most common issues are getting the wrong promotions on the units, and getting the wrong fortification bonus on the units.  Fortification is especially fiddly to set up right in worldbuilder.

Oh, and sometimes an issue with making sure you're using the same mod for your sim as for the actual game.

I really feel stupid for that and I need to look for a better way to simulate combats. If anybody knows some good spreadsheets for that I would gladly take them.

Last two posts here have the spreadsheets I know about.  They are good for initial battles with all units healthy, but the probabilities get tricky once you're talking about multiple attackers and multiple defenders - hard to answer the question of whether five attackers can beat two defenders with a spreadsheet.  Worldbuilder is definitely more accurate if you can set up the initial conditions exactly.

[Zalson]

What a bummer that this came when you had to request a pause. Taking a stab and getting unlucky isn't the worst thing in the world -- but what a bummer.

How many hitters did you have? How much damage did you do to the axemen with your two attacks?

RFS is the next best course.

[Charriu]

At this point I planned to attack with another swordsman against an archer, but contrary to my simulation I only had 30% odds instead of 67%. I don't know what went wrong here. Would I have noticed that my simulation with World Builder is bad, I would have stopped my attack earlier.

Most common issues are getting the wrong promotions on the units, and getting the wrong fortification bonus on the units.  Fortification is especially fiddly to set up right in worldbuilder.

Oh, and sometimes an issue with making sure you're using the same mod for your sim as for the actual game.

I really feel stupid for that and I need to look for a better way to simulate combats. If anybody knows some good spreadsheets for that I would gladly take them.

Last two posts here have the spreadsheets I know about.  They are good for initial battles with all units healthy, but the probabilities get tricky once you're talking about multiple attackers and multiple defenders - hard to answer the question of whether five attackers can beat two defenders with a spreadsheet.  Worldbuilder is definitely more accurate if you can set up the initial conditions exactly.

I'm pretty sure I had the right promotions and I simmed in RtR, but the fortification bonus could be the reason. Thanks for the calculator.

What a bummer that this came when you had to request a pause. Taking a stab and getting unlucky isn't the worst thing in the world -- but what a bummer.

How many hitters did you have? How much damage did you do to the axemen with your two attacks?

RFS is the next best course.

One axeman was down to 3.8 and the other to 0.8.

[Charriu]

T92:

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Coeurva did not accept my peace offer immediately, but send me a peace offer of his own. The nice thing because the game was still paused I still had the chance to have a look at his territory. He had a bigger stack of 3 axeman 3 worker and an archer coming from the NW. Of course I accepted his peace offer.



Coeurva also got Currency this turn, which is really lucky. If I had to sue for peace now he could have requested gold. But I at least hit his economy a bit, when he has 0 gold per turn and he now has a lot of axeman and not those feared praetorians. In other tech news Shallow got Alphabet and RFS got his iron back; I still don't know why it was missing for one turn.
I give a full analysis of my war against Coeurva in my next posts.




So back to RFS my initial target. You can see 2 scouts in my first screenshot, which will be important for my troop movement. My plan of attack is basically still the same as a few turns earlier, but those scouts could get into my way. I positioned my units as you can see above. His scout should still just see my worker chopping the forest near my horse. I plan to build a road on the hill N of the marble, so that my units can get into position faster.



I still have enough troops for an attack on RFS and the 10 turn peace with Coeurva gives me a bit of room with defense in Forza. Nonetheless I will send some axeman to Forza.



I know I forgot the finance screen last turn. I promise to improve myself in that regard.



There's still the open question of what to do with the terrain in my north. As you can see there are only two ways Superdeath and Couerva can clash together here. I'm still a bit hesitant to settle this region. Feels like settling between a rock and a hard place.

[Zalson]

What is your attack vector against RFS?

[Cornflakes]

I hate to say it, but your chances vs RFS probably won’t be any better than Couerva. He’s had an extra 5-10 turns to prepare, plus has scouts out in your direction. On the other hand I don’t see anything that gives you any better chance

[Charriu]

Attack plan Lighthouse

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I worked on my initial attack plan against RFS. The initial moves will start on T87 not T84 as previously mentioned. That's because I forgot that my galley from Magissa has to move towards Wing Raptor and can participate in T87. That's actually good because it allows me to increase my attack force to the following:

First Red Team

• 1 axeman
  
• 3 swordsman
  

Second Red Team

• 2 axeman
  
• 2 swordsman
  

Yellow Chariot Team

• 6 chariots
  

Blue Galley Team

• 2 galley
  

And this is the plan. I took mayor inspiration from Cornflakes, so most of the credit should go to him:



So first I put RFS vision in the map (green line). I tested it in World Builder and noticed that there was a mistake in Cornflakes plan. The star tile is actually not visible to RFS. I also highly doubt that he will get the 3rd ring before I attack. Here the detailed movement:

87:

• First Red Team borders the galleys near Wing Raptor (blue triangle)
  
• Second Red Team and Yellow Chariot Team wait on star tile.
  
• Two workers move to the forest 1SW of star, if there are enemies nearby I will have to get some protection from the star tile. Note that RFS has not connected horse as of now. Should he have no horse till T87 then there is no danger of chariots
  
• Blue Galley Team moves 2W
  

What can RFS see:
Only the galleys and 2 workers

88:

• Declare war
  
• Blue Galley Team moves 1W
  
• First Red Team moves to corn
  
• Workers build and finish a road
  
• Second Red Team borders galleys
  
• Yellow Chariot Team moves to 1NE via the new road. There will be a road on the star tile, just so you know
  
• Blue Galley Team moves 1W
  

What can RFS see:

• Galleys
  
• Workers
  
• 6 chariots
  
• 1 axeman
  
• 3 swordsman
  

89:

ATTACK


Should the defense in Lighthouse be very low like one unit in T88, I may attack it in that turn with an amphibious attack with First Red Team.


Thanks again to Cornflakes. And while I'm at it also thanks to you too, Zalson, for the constant support.

This is still my plan for attack with the tiny modification that I declare one turn earlier to destroy the scout with a chariot.

[Charriu]

Schilda war analysis:

I promised you an analysis of my war against Coeurva. All in all in went not as hoped, but could have turned out more desastrous. One of the biggest problems was that it was not planned, because I initial wanted to attack RFS. If I hadn't the forces at the time I propably would not have attacked. I really felt triggered by the Stonehenge culture bomb. I think the two biggest mistakes in starting the war were as followed:

1. I should have declared war one turn earlier. this may have prevented some additional reinforcement in Schilda.
   
2. My simulation was flawed and may not had a chance of taking Schilda at any point in time.
   

In the end I see the following gains and losses:

Gains:

• Did a tiny bit of economy damage with pillaging the gold and the roads.
  
• Killed an archer and an axeman
  
• Forced Coeurva to produce more axeman, which take up precious gold that could have been used for praetorians later.
  
• Coeurva is still at 0 gold per turn
  
• At least got an easy 10 turn peace with Coeurva.
  

Losses:

• 1 chariot, 2 swordsman
  
• Gold from supply and maintenance lost.
  
• Gave RFS time to build up
  
• Did not take the pressure from Forza.
  

I think the war was a mistake in the end.

[Charriu]

T93:

---

A lot more players signed open border agreements. I will offer Shallow an open border agreement, because I think he already has an island city (he has whales and therefore Sailing).

Superdeath got a Great Scientist and used it to bulb Alphabet. I'm also starting a road from Galura towards Superdeath. Might as well try to get a trade connection.





The situation around RFS hasn't changed, but I'm ready to start the war next turn. I have enough workers in the area to quickly build a road 1W of the marble and then move 2 workers as planned to the forest 1S of the iron. The units boarding the galleys stand ready on the spice as do the chariots, of which one has to attack the scout. More troops are waiting SE of Forza an can quickly move in RFS' direction with the newly build roads.

EDIT: I forgot to say that I finish Alphabet next turn. I will go for Currency next. Nobody has founded Hinduism and Judaism so far, just so you know.

[Charriu]

T94:

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I deceided to send Magic and Shallow an open border agreement. Magic because he's my natural ally and I need allies in this game and Shallow, because I hope to make him an ally too for the moment, but mainly because I hope to get more trade income from him.

I also will get graphs on Magic next turn, which is very convient as I will do my graphs as usual next turn.

Which brings me to the main event this turn: I started my long overdue war against RFS by killing his scout:

C1 Chariot     vs     Woodsman I Scout = 99.9% -> WIN

Unfortunately the scout had a good day and my chariot was damaged (3.1 health). After that fight I moved my units into their positions.



3 swordsman and 1 axeman borderd the galleys and the rest (4 Chariot, 2 swordsman, 2 axeman, 2 archers) is waiting 1W of the marble 2 chariots are healing a bit on the spice, but will join the fight next turn (they have promotions) together with the scout-killing chariot, which gives me 7 chariots. More units are on their way, but this is my initial force. I moved 2 workers to the forest 1S of the iron to build a road next turn. I don't think that RFS is capable to attack them next turn. That would only be possible with units that could move fast through the forests or with units already on a galley, which would be possible, but that would be really strange of him to keep units on it. By my calculations and test RFS should only see the two workers on the forest, the galleys and the chariot on the hill. Next turn we'll know how strong Lighthouse's defenses are.



I took this screenshot before I started the war.




As you can see I also started currency. Depending on how well the defenses in Lighthouse are and how the war continues I will start building research in my better production cities like Exdeath, Wing Raptor and Siren so that I get this important tech quickly.