[Spoilers] Shallow Thought and Hitru's series of (unfortunate?) events

[shallow_thought]

Quick update as my wife has come back after two days away, and things are mostly quiet.

I forgot to mention one big thing in the last report - OT4E built the Hanging Gardens, with the concommitant score and, more signifcantlty, population jump. Also, while worrying about access to sugar, I forgot we had one at the capital! No workers anywhere near it, but it can be plantationed. We probably don't need to urgently, however, because the "banana" near IQ/KB is ... a sugar. Wow I'm sloppy. At least that was on the priority list, so has just finished being roaded, and a second worker has arrived to get started on the plantation next turn.

RFS-81 has offered peace, which is ... not happening just yet. Our settler needs another couple of turns to get where we need it. Being at war means I can scout out his territory a little, with care, and I've stumbled across a worker party. 74% chance to kill an axe and a worker, 100% chance of being killed by a spear the next turn. No thanks.

[shallow_thought]

So, calendar is in. Despite my incompetence we will get a sugar online in 2t, which will let us keep growing, but it will be a little while before we get dyes and silks, and there are wasted worker turns littering the landscape. Calendar also means the possibility of getting the Mausoleum ... if I wanted to spend 35t slow building it. Nah. The current plan is to 1t Meditation, then save cash for a while. We're thinking of Priesthood-CoL-CS, timed to start a Golden Age. We can delay HBR, as we're not about to attack anybody, and nothing else is too tempting. Metal Casting? We're probably not building forges until we have our religion spread and Org Rel to boost production. If we can get into Bureaucracy ahead of the field, maybe we can open a bit of a gap and find a target.

In the meantime the culture wars continue. Having been slowly gaining on gems tile, it is now stuck at 50-50, but in Superdeath's favour. We can hopefully fix that with a missionary within the the next 10t. JS2 is losing hard to OT4E on its sugar tile. We're chopping a rather wasteful library there, and it will probably get our second missionary. Whether that will be enough, I don't know. We got a Judaism spread to DQ, which is ... moderately useless.




We're soon going to be founding our last expansion for a little while. It is also going to have problems with culture, while RFS-81 lives. We do have another settler in the build queue at HH - it's targeted for RFS-81's land, if anyone gets round to killing him, but there's no urgency. We're growing on wealth first.




There was a nasty moment when my cat ended turn for me while I was still looking around, but I can't see any damage. It did throw me off my stride and I forgot to check graphs before logging out. Let's hope there are no nasty surprises there - I might be able to check later.

[shallow_thought]

So, it turns out that I forgot to scroll down in the event log last turn . Below all the messages about chops and stuff was the rather important news that OT4E had declared war on Magic Science. I only noticed when MS whipped in response and OT4E captured Geneva. Plans around Bureaucracy somehow seem ... irrelevant   . By pure luck this oversight didn't directly affect making our plans this turn, as our solitary extant cat was already on it's way across the empire, due to arrive at JS2 EOT 124. So, the first turn we'd actually be able to hit Not Rome was already t126, four turns from now. With a bit of extra roading (again, by pure luck we had two workers available) we can get a cat whipped out of GG this turn there at the same time, as well as cat from DQ and from JS2. Four cats, four swords, seven axes, four Immortals. And what does OT4E have?




We actually might be able to gain local superiority, so we're setting it up. As far as I can see OT4E still doesn't have construction. If he gets it and whips a cat out - well, we'll see it, as we'll be ahead of him in turn split. Of course, he could have another stack sitting on the tile we can't see behind the city. He's certainly got the spare power. And he'll see us coming - all our troops will be visible EOT 124.




We've got eyes on part of his attacking force. That's not actually that far from our border, so we need to be aware of the chance he swings back our way.




Diplomatically, Superdeath cancelled and re-offered fish-fish. I sent back iron-iron. I also sent copper-copper to Charriu. And in a fit of generosity I offered MS our stone so that he can get walls up - if he even has Masonry, of course; at we've offered him the option. We've swapped the cap onto a Monastery, so aren't using it right now. And if we do grab Not Rome we get a second source ...

We'll be planting our new island city next turn, and I'll probably offer RFS-81 a ceasefire to get out of the turn-split, even although that means we can get galleys back and forth any more.

[shallow_thought]

Well, that's yet another damp squib to add to my pile - MS and OT4E made peace. After MS took my stone gift . While we're going to carry on with some elements of the buildup, we won't be launching the attack unless something changes. Superdeath signalled back iron-iron, Charriu did not. I have no idea what is going to happen next diplomatically. SD might attack OT4E, or wait for us to move first - which will now be a long wait.




Overall the fact that we seem to keep just missing the boat does not come as a surprise - I'm not used to MP and I'm naturally cautious. Also, one of my key weaknesses, in civ as in RL, is that I'm not great at changing plans in response to unforseen circumstances. It's not necessarily that I keep following the old plan (although there is an element of that) but there tends to be a lot of mental friction in switching.

So, back to the plans we had before the latest excitement. Miserable Mill goes down. With no trade route it is a big chunk of lost cash per turn. Question for lurkers to confirm: if RFS-81 will take peace, we get a trade-route through his territory, right? Although I'd only be offering/accepting a ceasefire - a city I couldn't even vaguely threaten to reinforce seems too weak.

We're looking to get CoL in ~8t, hopefully a little better as Calendar resources come on line and we get a Monastery at the cap. Some of our non-core cities will get back to wealth builds once the current units are finished. I am feeling a lack of workers, but suspect that it is more that I've not been making good use of the ones we have than that we need to many more actual units. We'll get one out of AA and see. Some of our cities have nothing but pure rubbish to expand onto, but we don't have a lot we want to whip right now.

Something I didn't mention last turn is that SD got a Buddhism spread to Deadpool, so pushing back on the gems tile. I'm really going off the random spread mechanism as a design choice.

At least OT4E still has his sense of humour. Although it's kind of tempting to raze Antium just to point out that it's not only the noobs with flatland plants...

[Old Harry]

Yeah peace (or ceasefire) will get you trade routes.

And don't feel too bad about being late to various parties - civ just seems to be a game where that happens all the time. You just need to learn to predict exactly how all five opponents will react in all situations and every stage of the game, then you'll find things a bunch easier...

[shallow_thought]

If we had gone for OT4E we would have had this little lot plus a bunch more axes, and an extra spear and Immortal or two, now off covering workers. I think we'd have been able to take Not Rome and threatened Antium. Could we have held it? Almost certainly not if OT4E had been able to counter-attack with his Praetorians across the road network while the city was still in revolt. But if he had been bogged down in a serious war with MS? We'll never know.




The new plan is the old plan. Try and be first into Bureaucracy, timing a GA as close as possible to getting Civil Service. By the end of the GA, be able to switch to HR and OR as well for more happy and cheaper infrastructure (a lot of missionaries are needed as well). Then get up courthouses and push for forges. Finally, try to be first to knights. Maybe we could think about a second GA around the same time (getting close to the required GPP in the first GA), pick up a switch to Vassalage and Theocracy, get serious about violence? Although we'd also want Mercantilism out of the second GA, and we probably can't do that as well as being quick.

Realistically we need HBR and Archery in the mix somewhere soon so we can get wellies and horchers of our own for deterrence. This all smacks a bit of going "tall" where "wide" is usually better, but the Roman power distorts all decision making, preventing us trying to make any move on our own. Even picking off RFS-81 requires more hitters than we have, more defenders in reserve and more time than we'd be given by the other players. So "tall" it is.

The good news is that I'm on holiday and PB38 is slow, so Hitru is taking the lead for a little while. That means that all these moving parts will get lined up a bit more neatly. It does mean that reporting may be a little sketchy for a bit though.

Of course, we're not playing in glorious isolation. In foreign affairs, things are peaceful but tense. RFS-81 accepted cease-fire, so we're out of the turn split and getting 6cpt in trade routes at MM. Elkad has taken over from OT4E, which is kind of a diplomatic reset. What makes that particularly interesting is that we had an iron-iron agreement with Superdeath pre-dating that - and he has shiny new horse archers massing near Magic Science's border. We think we can benefit from stability for a while to come, but that may not be in our hands to ensure. I don't have a screenshot of that right now, but at least our stack is close enough to get involved if we want. Magic Science has done exactly what I intended him to do with stone and built a lot of walls. That's fine if it slows down Superdeath, less good if we have to climb over them ourselves to grab his marble site (which is a tempting target).

[shallow_thought]

As it's t132, 10t after the excitement of OT4E's last joke, we can cancel our stone deal with MS and get back slowly working on the Pyramids. Very slowly, as we're working specialists for that GA... It would be wonderful to get the Pyramids but it would be something of an accident if we did.

You know, I really should know that - regardless of the tech order I usually pick - Guilds doesn't have Cicil Service as a pre-requisite. So, if we were serious about being first to knights, this was not the tech path. You know what is a pre-requisite? Feudalism, and thus Monarchy. And what helps you get Monarchy faster, even if you already have Priesthood. Monotheism, which is what Elkad is researching and will get next turn. He already has Metal Casting, so as of next turn he's four five (HBR) techs away from knigs; expensive techs, some of them but only five. 

However, we didn't pick our path for knights, we picked it for infrastructure. We're first to Code of Laws, and are now 8t away from a GA, which gives us plenty of time to research CS and save cash for other techs. Which is fine, if Elkad struggles to keep his economy going and hence get those four techs. With stacks of 13 Praetorians running around somewhere in the fog of his land, maybe he does have enough expenses to drag him down. And then we can use our Bureaucadacp to catch up by the three-four techs we're going to be behind on the military path, fast enough not to get crushed or miss out while he eats someone else.

Other than that, SD has a stack of horchers hanging around, but MS border cities are stuffed with spears and pro archers. Still quiet, still tense.

Apologies for the lack of pictures. Hopefully will get back on track more once I'm home again. Reading some of the threads from PB38, my reporting is definitely middle-of-the-pack in quality at best. Maybe I'll get an overview together during the GA. Maybe.

[shallow_thought]

(This is basically yesterday's report as I'm struggling a bit to find time at the moment. Hopefully I'll catch up soon. )

So, back home to British weather and flat-pack furniture. Anyone who attacks us now is likely to find me very salty indeed.

However, that doesn't seem to be the immediate agenda. It's builder time all round. Superdeath has picked up the Great Library. So he's up Aesthetics and Literature on us, as well as Archery and HBR. I don't think he has Calendar, or Construction. He also has a Great Merchant, so I expect a GA from him soon. I imagine he's in pole position for the Music GArt. His horcher's are distributed around, and we seem to have friendly relations, but we are investing in a few extra spears depite a recent fish-fish.

By the way, we've definitely lost out in pushing for marble - Superdeath, Charriu and Magic Science all have it, and there is an unused copy on the Superdeath / Charriu border. I don't know if this is a minor imbalance in the map or we just didn't expand in the right directions. As I wasn't particularly interested in wonders anyway I don't feel this is a problem.




Elkad has picked up the Pyramids. He has then launched a GA - I expect he plans to have Bureau by the end of it, which will be only a few turns after us. Alternatively, he could be skipping Bureau and heading directly for knights. His big stack of Praetorians is not immediately threatening, but is enough, combined with his garrison in Not Rome, to cause us to build another round of cats. I don't think he's hostile - if he wanted to mess with us he wouldn't have left the stack somewhere our sentry could see it (I'm pretty sure he can see it after it gets pulled back to JS2). The terrain works in our favour, along with RFS-81's cultural pressure; he would struggle to hit us without warning. That may change with two-movers, Engineering and the threat of forking Jacques S and Grim Grotto, but that's a way off.




Charriu is also in a GA, complete with Org Rel revolt. He may also be planning to get Bureau, and may even beat us there. He just re-accepted crab-crab from us.

Magic Science, has picked up Feudalism. Given the way his neighbours have treated him so far, he's probably glad of those longbows. Hopefully he's still grateful for the stone.

We get CS in 2 more turns, GA in 4. One possible issue is that it looks like we may want to stay in Caste post-GA, to make sure we can get our second GA in good time. That feels ... courageous, in the British Civil service meaning of the word, with knights maybe coming soon.

But for the moment demos are not too bad. That GNP spike is us doing wealth builds (Glimpse from next turn - Elkad in GA looks less than that spike); we're three-turning CS without any while building up those cats and spears. Failgold from the 'mids has helped there a bit, but was worth less than one turn. The crop yield is nice. Power: well, lets see if we can keep peace going long enough that Praetorians and Horchers lose some of their value; maybe . Tech-wise people have definitely taken different paths. It's possible I've spread beakers a bit wide, but cats and calendar happy are nice. The 10% extra science for a monastery at the cap (and our Confucian Missionary there worked, so we can build a second) ... let's see if Bureau can make that detour into Meditation worth it.

[shallow_thought]

Turns 136-137 together.

The main order of business is GA planning, for t139. All detailed calculations are by me on the back of an envelope, so YMMV.

First, set Austere Academy to stagnate at 39/40 food (sad as those unimproved plains tiles are). That's going to be a Great Merchant, starving down when necessary (2 pop, I think). Even pushing that hard we need to be careful that BeaB doesn't get there first - it's better placed to push outside caste after the GA: I'd really like to be back in slavery. By happy coincidence BeaB and HH will both have full food bars at start of GA; HH can push for an Artist, stashing the points ready for next GA.




Speaking of GA's and the like:  while SD got himself a Great Artist, presumably from Music, and kicked off his GA. So, he either ran a GA earlier that I've forgotten, he's sending his GM on a cash-generating trip or he's saving up a culture bomb (hmm - maybe he really wants damn gems tile). He revolted to Caste, which I don't think Elkad was able to do. However, Elkad got the MoM (will extend his current GA, right?), so he may be aiming to switch part way through.

Militarily, Elkad's stack hasn't moved, and we have eyes on most of SD's horchers. Close to our border, but not actually threatening - yet.




In other news, Charriu offered marble for our stone. As the only thing we can build with it is the Temple of Artemis, and I'm not sure we'd ever get failgold ... nope. Would have accepted even fairly nominal gpt, but that didn't seem to be an option.

[shallow_thought]

Hmm. Elkad played for nearly an hour today. I guess that's similar to my meanderings, but he should know what he's doing, where as I desperately check for things I've missed over and over . No movement from his stack, but he gets Construction next turn.

Crab-crab from SD. Sure thing buddy, we trust you and your increasing stack of horse archers . In fact, I've opted to build wealth rather than yet more cats on that border; in two turns we can start knocking out wellies if desired. I echoed back. OTOH, now that we've restored tech visibility on Elkad, we're back to putting EPs on SD. Let's hope that doesn't annoy him. He must know that he and Elkad are the two I'm keeping close watch on.

One thing from last turn: Charriu finished GA without Bureaucracy (OR and HR from start). It's possible that he's begun to slide into irrelevance. Unlike last turn he now has 28gpt, so I've offered stone for 5gpt, so at least we should still be friends.

MS is now ahead of us in power; that should be mostly longbows, but I need to get a scout back into his territory. They got withdrawn to add hitters to the stack watching Elkad.

Other than that, quiet turn, except for whipping our island cities; one because it was about to grow (3 pop for a library) and one so that the workboat can improve whales as soon as borders pop. It's still bad manners not to include a picture though. Sorry. Next turn, however - GA! With compulsory Moai picture, and maybe more.