[LURKERS] PB 42

[BaII]

Should we start PMing the players if they're willing to concede to Gavagi?

[Commodore]

Looks like Superjim still thinks he has a shot.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

Gav has gently chided the lurkeratti for lack of posts. So, +1.

Does anyone care to give odds on superjm's cav upgrade prospects vs. Gav? Cavs are tough but it really depends on if he can get a critical mass into a stack soon enough to prevent Gav from getting a pile of collateral and just enough rifles into place to hold the line. I think at best superjm can cause a little damage but will never be able to win the war. This slows Gav down a little but in the end he's just too big and with Krill/OH's deathmatch continuing unabated this will still be Gav's game. Nothing changes.

[Bobchillingworth]

I don't have a great track record calling these things, but I'm confident Gav has it in the bag. He couldn't take on every other civ if they all dogpiled him, but Krill has given up on the game, OH has no interest in fighting him, Cairo is pointlessly attacking SD, and Superjim doesn't have enough production to accomplish much on his own. Not much more to say; I doubt this will run much longer.

[RefSteel]

Just doing a silent concession check:

- Gavagai is the one to whom the game would be conceded, but he seems to regard superjm's potential Cav upgrades as a legitimate threat. It would be great if we could call the game now, just so it would be safe to make this, from his latest post, the QotM:

Instead they are fighting over this lush island which is perfectly positioned right between them and also exists only in their imagination.

- Krill, in second place, is willing - nay, eager - to concede
- OH, in probably the third-best momentary position, though tenuously so, appeared to take it for granted in a recent post that Krill's was the only concession (still) needed. (That's not the same thing as an official concession - it was an off-hand, half-jesting remark, and e.g. Fintourist might be very active behind the scenes, and might disagree - but it's enough to leave open the possibility that we should ask players about concession.)
- superjm, as Commodore noted above, still looked until quite recently like he was hoping for and expecting at least a chance to win. After a low-odds double scientist roll though, he might be changing his mind. Is he aware yet that they actually can't bulb Astronomy?
- I don't think Mr. Cairo would be happy about having the game called just as he's about to invade superdeath - to make his big push to do something in the game. No chance to win the game of course, least of all with this ill-advised attack, and I don't know about war gains either way. At this point, superdeath's impenetrable mass of rifles is pure vaporware, but he is mustering some actually-completed defenders, and Cairo's not exactly showing up with overwhelming force.
- From recent posts, I'd say superdeath has de-facto conceded.
- Lewwyn conceded ages ago. I still feel kind of bad about not really having time to look at the map more closely when the game started. If I'd even just looked at the civs right to left instead of left to right, I might have observed and mentioned in stronger terms the extreme disparity between the Donovan/Lewwyn starts and some of the legitimately good ones further east.
- If the game wass called right now, OT4E would techically have survived to the end.

So my question would be: Do we call the game when the identity of the winner is obvious, or not until all players are actually ready to concede? In the former case, we should probably poke superjm at least to ask how his plans are going. Unless he hits Gavagai with a lot of cavs and a number of other things go right for Krill or (mayyyyyyybe) OH, both of whom already seem ready to concede, Gav has clearly won this thing. If we wait for full concessions though, we probably at least have to let Mr. Cairo's attack on superdeath go through until it stalls out (or until someone else joins in and takes over superdeath's core, which imaginably could still change the dynamics of the game) ... and then check in with superjm to see if it's safe to call the game for Gav.

[BaII]

I'm curious though why there is such a lack of lurker posts for this game

[Mardoc]

not until all players are actually ready to concede?  

Generally this. The intent is to call the game when people stop having fun, more than just to determine a victor. It's just that 'no longer seeing a path to victory' correlates pretty well with 'not having fun anymore' for a lot of RBers.

FWIW, I know Old Harry/Fintourist have been outspoken in the past that RB games are generally called too early so I would definitely want either something explicit from them, or for them to be the last holdout.

[darrelljs]

Looks like Superjim still thinks he has a shot.

WHY HASNT THIS GAME BEEN CALLED YET? WHO IS LEFT?? Krill has no good targets, OH is at the mercy of Krill, OH will suffer from whatever i can whip up. ( was building eco, silly me ) Mr.Cairo is actually weaker than myself, regardless of score/power rating. Lewwyn is deadmanwalking, and Gav just ended SuperJm's only chance. SOOOOOOOOOOO..... lol?

No longer...seems like it's time.

Darrell

[Mardoc]

I don't think OH is ready to concede, and we haven't actually seen superjm's perspective on his war either - maybe he's doing better than it appears to his enemies.

OH for a long while has been juggling the threat of Krill with gradual expansion. The only way I see that being stopped is if either Krill or Gavagai decides to directly invade OH to force the game to end - and only Gav would benefit from that decision. I have to say that OH's history is in favor of continuing - if anyone is capable of maintaining focus and grinding out steady progress, it's his team.

[Cornflakes]

I agree with Mardoc. OH's last post does not sound to me like they are ready to concede.