[SPOILERS] Cornflakes Returns to Civ 4: Forget 1UPT, STACK OF DOOM!!!!!

[Cornflakes]

T44: Interesting developments! A barb city spawned between me an Superdeath (and presumably JR4 to the east). It is ever so slightly closer to me than Superdeath, and therefore mine by right 

   

On the negative side the barb city spawned on flatland and killed a floodplain. On the positive side it is in a very fertile valley with 2 food resources, 3 floodplains, 5 hills for production, and Ivory (likely Superdeath's Ivory). As I was typing up this report I got curious if the floodplain was actually killed by the city, or if it spawned on a mapmaker-error-naked-desert. The worker micro screenshot from last turn actually shows naked desert, but looking back further I see that it was indeed a floodplain at one time. Since the floodplain was killed last turn as well the barb city must have been there at least as long as last turn. But my scout was near enough to spot culture if it has spawned on T42, therefore I'm pretty confident of the T43 spawn date (meaning T51 growth to size 2 if it is working 3F floodplain). I'll update the sign next time I'm in game. 

Scout will move as indicated in YELLOW to uncover the city center and check out the garrison. My axe can arrive adjacent to the city center as early as T49, capturing T52 if it spawned with 3 warriors. Cambrian will start an axe next turn after the Terrace in order to maintain impi protection within whip-able reach. The new axe will also complete just in time to escort Unconformity's settler to PURPLE dot. I'll need to think about foregoing LIGHT_BLUE dot in the near future with this extension to the southeast. One stretched border is enough for this stage of the game.

My income is going to come crashing down in the early 50's with 2 new cities, and one of those a far reach. It is definitely a good thing I'm starting to grow cottages!

[Cornflakes]

T45:   I had company over last night so played the turn quick. This morning I logged back in to get some screenshots and noticed that DZ moved an Impi into a threatening position near Cambrian Explosion [moving after me in turn order]. Unfortunately it is hard to see this as anything but a threatening move since DZ already has a scout in the area. The only mitigating factor in the threat-level is that DZ surely has at least 2 Impi (maybe 3) given his power rating, yet only moved in 1. 

   

I could have moved the capital's MP warrior up towards Cambrian in order to double-move it in as a 2nd defender next turn, but I did not change anything. The axe build at Cambrian was already set as per plan. My real failure here was moving my scouting Quechua out of position along DZ's border. I should have fortified it as indicated with the arrow. I knew I was taking a risk in moving it from there but I got greedy to push back more fog  Let's see if DZ takes the 70% shot next turn    Maybe I should have just taken the 50/50 whack at his worker a few turns back.

If DZ does attack and win I'm optimistic about my chances of surviving the rush short-term since I already have an axe in the field. I will fortify the axe on Copper, then line up a couple chops to land when I found again on copper with the in-queue settler. To be honest I'd almost rather play out that scenario of clawing on for dear life than the grind of late-game STACK OF DOOM warfare or steady fade into mediocrity

Anyway, here is what I really logged in to screenshot this morning:

   

JR4 planted their 3rd city 1SE of Gold. My scout also spotted what I interpret to be 2nd ring borders of JR4's 2nd city where marked by the northern signs. That placement should hopefully lead to a loose border if I capture the barb city, since the only eligible city tile between would be the flat grassland 1S of the peak. Barb city is defended by warriors which lead me to start marching the axe down. I'm going to take a pause and move the axe 1NW next turn ready to clean up the Impi if if does kill my city or worker. Cambrian will whip the axe next turn ... wait, I've got it! My worker can move 1NE and block the Impi's path through the grassland. The GFH will block the other tile 1SE of the impi. I don't need the mine anyway if I'm whipping off the pop.   whoohoo! If DZ wants to kill my worker at the cost of an Impi and negative relations then so be it. I could live with that (for now ). I just need to remember to move that worker first thing when I log in next turn so that it doesn't automatically use up its movement finishing the mine.

[Cornflakes]

BGN rolled the turn so I went ahead with moving the worker to the grassland blocking the Impi, whipped the Cambrian Explosion axe, and moved the existing axe 1NW. I was tempted to continue SE towards the barb city with the existing axe but played it safe. Next turn I'll dump enough production into another axe at Cambrian and will grow EOT with the ability to whip again the following turn. The ball is in your court, DZ. Please play nice

[Cornflakes]

I should have just put the Quechua on the grassland tile instead of offering up the worker as a sacrifice. Let’s spin this as a sign of trust towards DZ rather than incompetence 

[Cornflakes]

T46: Peace today, but relations are icy at best. DZ, you need to make friends not enemies at this stage of the game. It's too early to be picking a fight that you can't win crushingly. You will only weaken us both, and create a thorn in your side such that you can never turn your eyes elsewhere to take advantage of someone else's weakness.

   

Grab your popcorn lurkers! The previews are rolling and the feature presentation appears to be queued up. DZ made an apparently innocent move with the Impi, but then moved up an axe into neutral territory which can only be interpreted as hostile. Either DZ is trying to cram in a border city, or he is intent on pressing an attack that is doomed to failure. I fortified the new axe in the city, and started another axe that can be whipped as early as next turn or delayed if things de-escalate. My existing axe moved such that it can whack the Impi if it tries to advance into my backlines. My axe will be hidden from view when the Impi is on the gold. If DZ advance the Impi I am 98% certain I will kill it.

   

Here is a view inside Cambrian Explosion. With the Terrace complete I can grow from pop 1 > 2 in 2 turns, and have enough base production to set up back-to-back grow/overflow > whip cycles. The current happy cap will allow me to whip 4 more axes/spears in 8 turns! That would obviously be a huge setback to me but there is no way DZ breaks through 6 axes/spears fortified on a hill. I will not initiate such emergency measures unless the situation calls for it, but I'm just highlighting the pointlessness of hostilities at this stage. I'm already experiencing setback from DZ through delayed capture of the barb city (and the possibility that Superdeath or JR4 beat me to it), as well as additional unit maintenance costs (at -2/turn now )

I didn't get a screenshot of the south but everyone is fixated on the barb city there. Me, JR4, Elkad, Superdeath, and DZ all have our scouts adjacent to the barb city! That is the whole known world watching it! At this point I'm thinking about whipping Cambrian for another axe next turn and trying to war/peace DZ for 10 turns of security on that border. If I get peace I can send 2 of my 3 axes south to capture the barb city, able to capture T54 with 2 axes. The 3rd can shuffle west to escort the settler and then return by the time peace expires. My scout can keep an eye on the situation around the barb city. With 2 attackers I should be able to beat out any rival who comes with 1 attacker (whittle it down to 2 defenders, then kill both on T54). Maybe I should send all 3 axes to be safe if I can get war/peace with DZ?

[Cornflakes]

DZ played a double turn. His axe fortified in place. His Impi was in the same position facing the same direction, but did not have any fortification bonus so must have moved out and back over his double turn. I declared war and offered peace. DZ's passive-aggressive militancy combined with his double turns is getting on my nerves. I'd rather have either enforced peace or enforced turn split. If DZ keeps up a militarized border I foresee a pattern of repeated war/peace continuing into the future ... or perpetual war if DZ chooses that instead of peace.

[Cornflakes]

T49-50: Peace! (at least for 10 turns )

   

I accepted without looking around. I expected DZ to kill my scouting Quechua with this Impi, but in a surprising last-minute act of friendliness he spared the Quechua. I would have accepted 10 turns peace for the cost of a Q since it allows me to capture the barb city un-hindered, but that would certainly have had a long-term negative impact on relations. As-is if DZ de-militarizes the neutral lands when the peace expires then we can return to "Cautious", otherwise we remain somewhere between annoyed an icy.

   

Cambrian Explosion is whipped back down to 1 again with now 3 stacked whip unhappy. All in all I'm quite pleased with the early management of this city despite the aggressive whipping of axes in response to DZ. This city was founded T31 and has been whipped 3 times in 18 turns of existence   I do not regret the whips ... but only because I have a barb camp to make my early military pay off in expansion. Otherwise I would feel quite a bit further behind. I put one turn into the worker as shown in order to synchronize growth with the whip anger wearing off. My plan is to grow to size 2 hitting the happy cap, then spend 5 turns finishing the worker (EOT55). The worker will complete just in time assist in building the gold mine, which my existing worker will road in advance of the border pop. After the worker I'll be able to grow 2 more pop quickly from gold + next whip anger wearing off. I'll basically stagnate at size 4 working wheat + gold + 2 grass mines until the next anger wears off, then swap to furs (which should be improved just in time) and a grassland cottage to grow again. 

   

In a last-minute change of plans I decided to whip Great Unconformity again from 4 > 2 this turn. This speeds up the settler by 2 turns and my workers are in place already to finish the road next turn and start the pigs pasture T52 when the city is founded. The cost is 4 turns of growth and commerce on 2 cottages. 16 immediate commerce and probably as much time-value-adjusted from the future growth loss. I figure 2 turns of growth on a new city more than makes that up over the course of the game. I'm debating on a terrace here but I can already outgrow my happiness so may just finish the axe for the DZ-peace-renewal-effort and then start a ... workboat? Spear? Slowly build the terrace? Dump production into Stonehenge for failgold???

   

Barb city grew T50 a turn earlier than expected. My 2 axes are scheduled to capture T53. I have 2 workers currently 1SE of Cambrian. 1 will road Gold and then mine it in combination with the new worker from Cambrian, while the other worker heads south to improve the barb city after capture. Once the gold mine is complete I'll probably peel one of those 2 workers off south to assist at the barb camp while the other heads over to improve the Furs once Animal Husbandry is completed. My scout will keep moving back-and-forth down there keeping an eye out for potential competition over the barb city fro JR4 and Superdeath but that this point I think I have that locked down with my 2 axes. Cambrian has started a spear that I can whip in an emergency and will slowly build while growing after the worker is completed. The spear is intended to march down and fortify in the barb city for additional protection once eventually completed (about 10 turns from now). I'll be building a road down from Cambrian with spare worker turns as the workers move that way.

[Cornflakes]

Everything is moving according to plan. A 1.3/C1 barb warrior appeared in a non-threatening location from Elkad's direction, presumably having killed something of Elkad's before poking down my way. My settler-guarding axe should be able to whack him next turn if he approaches.

[Cornflakes]

T52: mediocre combat result on the first axe attack will delay capture by a turn I took 3 hits on a 99.9% attack, down to 64 HP. Cyneheard's calculator gives a 77% chance for a better combat result so it wasn't a terrible roll but still hurts. Result is that next turn I would be taking an 85% shot. Healing 1 turn up to 69 HP raises to odds to 93%, therefore next turn I'll attack with the fresh axe while the damaged axe heals. That combat should go better (fingers crossed) and on T54 I'll take the best of the combat odds from the two axes.

   

I settled Ice Age this turn. I'm about 10 turns behind the leaders to 3rd city (BGN/Superdeath/DZ all around T40, JR4 T45). But I have 2 workers in place to immediately improved the Sheep so it will grow to size 2 EOT56. I'll then put a chop into the terrace T58 and whip to completion T59 with the food box about half full. The plan is then to grow to size 3 on [something] and chop+whip another worker right as the borders expand in order to hook up the cows.

Great Unconformity will finish the axe-in-queue while growing to size 4, then slow-build a settler (8 turns) for GREEN DOT silver/ivory/clams in the west, followed by another slow-build settler for MAGENTA DOT in the south. I could take 2 turns to grow onto the mine but that would slow the first settler down 1 turn and be neutral on the 2nd settler, with no overall gain. GREEN will have the immediate support of 1 worker, followed quickly by another worker from Ice Age. GREEN will steal the sheep from Ice Age in order to grow for a quick chop+whip of the terrace. I'll likely keep Sheep designated to GREEN in order to feed the Silver + Ivory tiles. Ice Age can stagnate at 10hpt on 2 mines + cow with enough food to regrow/whip every 10 turns which will be enough to keep pace with a couple military builds and workboats while my other cities take the worker/settler load.

The barb city feels very isolated but there isn't a better location that I can see to slip in a stepping-stone city. I'm planning to keep a heavy garrison there and high pop for emergency whipping. One of the workers from Gold will be heading down to assist with improvements and chopping of the Terrace. Chop+whip at size 2 seems to be a common theme here but it just makes sense to get the +1 culture and food-doubler ASAP. Tentative plan after the Terrace is slow-build spears to gradually buff the garrison here while growing. As I exceed the happy cap and/or improved tiles I'll whip off for workers/settlers. Maybe the land will be filled up by that time and I'll be thinking about forges/wonders/libraries/etc.

   

Here is a peek at the tech tree. No religions have fallen in the first 52 turns of the game and no wonders have been built yet. I'm assuming that my IND/SPI trait is discouraging such early gambits. It remains to be seen whether I can snag Hinduism + Oracle at the very late date of T73-ish and T80-ish, respectively   The idea is to hit Animal Husbandry now to unlock camps on Furs and Elephants, ETA approximately 11 turns with Gold coming online. I think that AH will add more overall to my economy than the free tech from a direct beeline to Oracle (actual gain of only 100 beaker considering the trade-off of Polytheism + Priesthood vs. direct to Metal Casting). Religion should be easy to come by in a 7 player game and I can easily make 100 beakers from working furs and +2 happy everywhere. If by some miracle Hinduism and Oracle are still available once my treasury is build up again after AH then I'll probably roll the dice on dashing to Priesthood and chopping Oracle at the barb city for the cultural pressure on that front ... and laugh all the way to the bank if I land both   

   

Graphs:

   
   
   
   
   

Takeaways:

• My GNP is suffering due to unit maintenance primarily, my city costs are lower since I only founded my 3rd this turn. DZ and JR4 are both getting +6 creative culture so they are about equal with me. Elkad is above but probably getting double-arrow bonus from AH or Pottering (having researching the other a few turns ago, note the dip for a couple turns while saving gold).
  
• DZ has been consistently top in production, JR4 recently spiked up. Did JR4 just improve his copper? Seems a bit late but could be at his 3rd city, near Gold like mine.
  
• JR4 has been consistently top food. My food flatlined due to whipping aggressively. As mentioned previously the whips were of un-improved tiles and I am not overly concerned. 
  
• Elkad led power early due to tech, but built his first axe after DZ and I. I looks like DZ built an axe the same turn as I built my first, but then he followed it up immediately with an Impi. Both of those he moved towards me. I responded with back-to-back axes while DZ built 2 more Impi. I'm hopeful that my alertness and aggressive whipping will cause DZ to turn his greedy eyes elsewhere in the future. I am very happy to have settled on copper so that I couldn't be the subject of an impi-camping-copper-choke! I sure am glad that barb camp spawned to keep my military productive! I wonder how DZ is going to turn a profit from his military? He has to be paying close to what I am now for support costs. 
  
• My target has been to achieve #1 or #2 in all of Food/MFG/GNP by T75. Over the next 5 turns my food should shoot upwards as 3rd and 4th cities come online and capital re-grows. I can hit 6 cities easy by T75 with 6 workers and at least 4 improved tiles per city. All cities will have Terraces and with happy cap of 8 I'll be set up to grow-grow-grow like a weed! My 6 workers is a minimum number which I will achieve by T65. I'll likely pump out at least 1 more worker somewhere to take advantage of the happy cap. If I don't have improved tiles then I'll make use of the happiness by whipping off the pop for more workers. I appear to be on track at this point and will check in again on the graphs at T60. I will slowly build a couple of spears at Cambrian and Barb-City but otherwise should be OK militarily in the intermediate term unless a neighbor spikes in power.
  

I am not plotting anything hostilities against Zulu at this point I will maintain a Quechua at the forward-most tile for vision but otherwise just monitor the graphs with a suspicious eye and keep an axe fortified in Cambrian and another halfway between Cambrian and Barb City for a quick response in either direction.

[Cornflakes]

T53: Had better luck with the 2nd attack on the barb city, only taking 1 hit. It will have 98% odds next turn.