American Politics Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Biden gets denied communion. His failure to Pre-Check indicates a lack of organization. So I'm pretty sure that Warren will win (80%+). He's now against the Hyde amendment and Catholic Church still hates abortion so every Catholic Church should do this (if getting abortion denies communion then giving $$$ directly to fund many more abortions does too). They don't, even through it's the right thing to do if your against abortion, because they selfishly don't want to become a junior partner to the GOP like the fundies are. "Both parties now suck, so don't vote for anyone" isn't very popular and would fade away, leaving "VOTE GOP ABORTION BAD!!!" This would cause the GOP to pick up the Catholic vote uncontested and give them almost nothing (just wave abortion flag). They would even be able to ditch abortion someday because the DEMs would start hating the Catholic Church.

[MJW (ya that one)]

LA doesn't look good for GOP anymore (Black turnout high, Tilt D) and the results have been mediocre. However, the GOP has gotten great news. Bloomberg will run!!!! This will be a big help to the down ballot GOP because turnout increases when you think your team is going to win and it will pull away resources into the DEM presidential campgin. That's more than enough to compensate for mediocre results so my ratings stay the same, expect AL because Sessions will declare. It goes from Lean R-->Likely R. I'm pretty sure Bloomberg will drop if Biden wins. Biden is also the strongest against Trump because minorities and far-left will vote for anyway due to fear and hatred of Trump, while Biden steels votes from the center. Election is a tossup someone other than Biden wins and Leans D if he wins for an overall Tilt D rating.

[MJW (ya that one)]

GA-S Likely-->Lean R due to Loeffler pick. There's a very high chance of the runoff saving GOP's bacon.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Okay the 4 people who can win dem nomination are Warren, Buttigieg, Sanders and Biden. Stop&Frisk and Yang have no chance and everyone else is worth nothing on PredictIt. I think the election is Lean D if Biden or Buttigieg is the nominee because the left would be forced to vote for them anyway due to fear and hatred of Trump while they steal votes from the center and Tossup if Warren or Sanders wins. Overall rating: Tilt D. Recent Mason-Dixon polling backs me up. Trump even has a majority against Sanders in VA...

[MJW (ya that one)]

Everyone but Biden and Sanders are now below Stop&Frisk at PredictIt. Lean D if Biden and Tossup if Sanders. Biden is a strong candidate against Trump because he can get away with ignoring his left flank.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Leaked Ann Selzer poll shows Biden in 4th.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Biden in 5th place but no real results yet...

[darrelljs]

...and still no results .

Darrell

[MJW (ya that one)]

Sanders is favored to win DEM nomination now as Bloomberg has passed Biden on PredictIt. Sanders can and will crush Bloomberg by saying "Stop and Frisk", "Stop and Frisk" and "Stop and Frisk". (By the way I'm against Stop&Frisk because declining isn't a real option because you get on a police shit-list so it's a violation on the 4th amendment.)

[MJW (ya that one)]

1. Buttigieg
2. Sanders
3. Warren
4. Biden
5. Klobuchar
6. FIELD
Not running; Bloomberg