American Politics Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Senate update time:

Solid: All but certain to win.
Likely: I almost call it.
Lean: Clear edge.
Tossup. Everything else. The tilt rating is just for fun in an attempt to guess everything; too subjective and based on intuition/emotion to be serious.  

AL actually has a chance but it doesn't count. He could win via a 3rd party run of massive scandal but that if that counts then no seat is safe ever (I'm looking at you HI-1 Special and LA-2 2008).

VP is Tilt D now that Bernie is likely to be nominee. Senate overall rating: Tilt R. Dems only have to win NC.  

There are now 11 real Senate races. If I had to kick one off to get a top 10 seante races I would pick TX because the GOP is screwed if it's seriously in play anyway...

   

Likeliness to flip 

0. AL
1. CO
2. AZ
3. ME
4. NC
5. GA-S
6. MI
7. IA
8. GA
9. NH
10. KS
11. TX

[GeneralKilCavalry]

NH results out:
Bernie Sanders (Delegates, Vote Percentage, Vote total)
        9    25.7%    74,734
Pete Buttigieg
        9    24.4%    71,090
Amy Klobuchar
        6    19.8%    57,706
Elizabeth Warren
        0    9.2%    26,881
Joe Biden
        0    8.4%    24,443

Voter turnout is better than 2016, worse than 2008, record numbers of voters deciding the day before (is the choice tough? are voters disengaged and going out to vote at random? what is the voter info like? Also, these kinds of voters, who are deciding the day before, are mostly voting for Buttigieg/Klobuchar.)



Sanders is doing well with lower-income voters and union households, however, falls off sharply with "middle-class" voters. Large age divide as well.

Based on the exit polls, it seems that Sanders won't be stuck in the same bin as Corbyn (narrowed down only to college-educated voters, totally urban), but the results do not show an upsurge in turnout of new voters, which is really damaging to the narrative of how he's supposed to win.

Klobuchar seems to have really capitalized on her debate success, in a way that's rarely seen.

[Cyneheard]

Also, these kinds of voters, who are deciding the day before, are mostly voting for Buttigieg/Klobuchar.

I think there's two things going on here in some measure:
1) Low-engagement voters making a last minute decision. This is normal and part of every election.
2) Many Democrats' priorities are really about beating Trump & having an acceptable President. These voters may be paying attention, but can be easily swayed from one candidate to another based on which candidates they think have a chance at the nomination & that very mushy "electability" about who would be the best against Trump. It's very easy to imagine a voter whose top choices are Buttigieg and Klobuchar deciding on Tuesday which one they'd rather go with - they don't actually HAVE a strong preference because they're happy with 3-5 of the candidates that are running.

I know my preference order for the Democrats is fairly fixed at this point - but that doesn't mean I'm certain who I'm going to vote for, because that will depend on strategic considerations (and who's still running for that matter) by the time my state comes around to vote. This also suggests that there may be more room for "momentum" to have an impact on the non-Bernie wing of the party - if one candidate starts to take off, it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy where a lot of people line up behind him or her.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Sanders and Bloomberg are the only people worth anything on PredictIt and I agree. Sanders has a big edge against Bloomberg due to Stop-and-Frisk. He'll have an even easier time with the Aspen, CO video.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Also, these kinds of voters, who are deciding the day before, are mostly voting for Buttigieg/Klobuchar.

I think there's two things going on here in some measure:
1) Low-engagement voters making a last minute decision. This is normal and part of every election.
2) Many Democrats' priorities are really about beating Trump & having an acceptable President. These voters may be paying attention, but can be easily swayed from one candidate to another based on which candidates they think have a chance at the nomination & that very mushy "electability" about who would be the best against Trump. It's very easy to imagine a voter whose top choices are Buttigieg and Klobuchar deciding on Tuesday which one they'd rather go with - they don't actually HAVE a strong preference because they're happy with 3-5 of the candidates that are running.

I know my preference order for the Democrats is fairly fixed at this point - but that doesn't mean I'm certain who I'm going to vote for, because that will depend on strategic considerations (and who's still running for that matter) by the time my state comes around to vote. This also suggests that there may be more room for "momentum" to have an impact on the non-Bernie wing of the party - if one candidate starts to take off, it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy where a lot of people line up behind him or her.

I’ll try to find the poll later, it was on the CNN coverage, but the number of late deciders is vastly greater than usual. Political disengagement is really high amongst democrats is one theory, the other is more or less what you are talking about. But the numbers are pretty stark.

[darrelljs]

My generation is well know for our apathy, which is why I think you have so many Ancients in the race. The millennial can't take over fast enough.

Darrell

[MJW (ya that one)]

Now it appears ether Biden or Sanders will win. Tossup if Sanders wins and Lean D if Biden wins. Warren will be forced to drop after losing MA so it depends if Bloomberg drops (after Super Tuesday, that's now or never) or not. If he doesn't drop he'll siphon enough votes from Biden for Sanders to win; if he does he'll pump Biden full of much-needed $$$. Given his history of not running due to not wanting to hand GOP the win, I say he drops.

[darrelljs]

It seems obvious the 3 recent drop outs are trying to ensure Biden beats Sanders.

Darrell

[Cyneheard]

It seems obvious the 3 recent drop outs are trying to ensure Biden beats Sanders.

Darrell

Just a little bit. And two of them have already endorsed Biden. If Warrens loses MA, as seems likely, she probably has to drop but she may not endorse anyone while the primary is still going on.

Bloomberg will obviously endorse Biden if he drops.

I think it's more likely Biden ends up as the nominee than Sanders - he's going to gain a lot more of the Klobuchar/Buttigieg voters (and any defections from Bloomberg, and some anti-Sanders voters from Warren), and there's no way the polls have caught up with the most recent events. It also helps him that he's more likely to win a truly contested convention than Sanders would.

[MJW (ya that one)]

I call Biden the nominee unless Bloomberg is an idiot and fails to drop. For my Senate ratings VP is now Lean D (Biden is strong because he'll mercilessly ignore his left flank knowing that they will be forced to vote against Trump. He's not that much stronger because he won by bribing other moderates out of his lane but it's enough to bump it up.) AZ, the only state I'm was on the fence on, goes to Lean D. Biden being President-elect is bad news for DEMs in GA-S so it goes to Likely R. Overall rating is Tilt R. Bullock might declare though (only plausible candidate who might declare, might think he could win MT now). If that happens MT is Lean R and Senate rating is Tilt D.

Edit: If Sanders wins because Bloomberg fails to drop and Bullock declares (thinking Biden wins); MT is still Lean R but the Senate is Tilt R.