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(March 4th, 2020, 11:08)GeneralKilCavalry Wrote: (March 4th, 2020, 10:45)T-hawk Wrote: (March 3rd, 2020, 22:47)MJW (ya that one) Wrote: GOP wins in a 269 situation.
No, if there's no electoral majority (tie) then the House tiebreaks, which would be Dem. Isn't it a bit more complicated than that?
If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. Senators would elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win.
It's state delegations, so that means it's like 19-31, Trump would win.
Oh now I remember. That's the ruleset that allows a GOP president be elected together with a Dem vice president or vice versa. Another good reason to abolish the electoral college.
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Okay we got confirmation on MT so I can post my final Senate map. After this it's reacting to polls which is boring. VP Lean D; Overall rating Tilt D.
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Warren drops, too little too late. Biden's delegate lead isn't impressive but the problem is that he got through CA with a slight lead which is by far Sander's biggest card. Warren is dumb for not dropping before super Tuesday. Or she made Sanders lose on purpose and has to drop now to avoid making it obvious.
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Internal memos leaked from her campaign suggest the former...
Darrell
March 5th, 2020, 12:26
(This post was last modified: March 5th, 2020, 12:26 by Miguelito.)
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(March 5th, 2020, 12:18)darrelljs Wrote: Internal memos leaked from her campaign suggest the former...
Darrell
That she is dumb? not sure if I understood you right. Got a link re: those memos
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https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-look-ah...57a13c97e2
Not exactly a leaked memo and not exactly implying stupid, but definitely wildly optimistic. Money line:
Roger Lan Wrote:Warren is poised to finish in the top two in over half of Super Tuesday states (eight of 14), in the top three in all of them, and is on pace to pick up at-large statewide delegates in all but one.
Darrell
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(March 5th, 2020, 14:20)darrelljs Wrote: https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-look-ah...57a13c97e2
Not exactly a leaked memo and not exactly implying stupid, but definitely wildly optimistic. Money line:
Roger Lan Wrote:Warren is poised to finish in the top two in over half of Super Tuesday states (eight of 14), in the top three in all of them, and is on pace to pick up at-large statewide delegates in all but one.
Darrell
That was written when they were expecting a 7-candidate pile-up on Super Tuesday. It was before even New Hampshire had happened - "events intervened" is a more charitable and likely more accurate description of what occurred. Given how quickly the race changed in the past week, I don't think any projections that involved Buttigieg and Klobuchar still running should be considered off-base, just insufficiently imaginative and that's not how these kinds of projections work.
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Surely near zero candidates defected from Warren to Biden/Sanders because Buttigieg/Klobuchar dropped out. She only hit the 15% threshold in five states.
Darrell
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(March 6th, 2020, 10:57)darrelljs Wrote: Surely near zero candidates defected from Warren to Biden/Sanders because Buttigieg/Klobuchar dropped out. She only hit the 15% threshold in five states.
Darrell
They may have - Biden and Sanders we’re increasingly clearly the only possible nominees at that point so they may have defected to their preferred candidate of the two. It may not have been a huge group, but even 2-3% of the field would make a big difference in her viability.
And that memo was written weeks earlier, other things had happened too.
March 10th, 2020, 15:48
(This post was last modified: March 10th, 2020, 15:48 by Miguelito.)
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What merit does the Biden has dementia trope have in the opinion of the Americans here?
The videos I've seen looked pretty bad, but I've seen anything else from him, so maybe it doesn't weigh if you're more exposed to him? Can it be managed when it comes to the general election and gloves are off? Does he appear more or less confused than Trump, or does it not matter anyways because everyone just thinks the guy from the other team is retarded (but there has to be a however slim population of swing voters who can be persuaded one way or the other)?
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