Is there any reason to complete Poly? Just leave it at 1 turn for now and use the beakers more wisely. Will also confuse the people keeping track of techs. I like the idea of archery and getting some static defense. It's cheaper than axes/spears and a more universal defender. It also frees up the axe to hunt for barbarians while the archer can fortify in the hill border city.
Our land is so great that I'd recommend expanding hard. I can't make a micro plan, but as many (properly protected) settlers as possible would be nice. I think we'll be good with 1 roaming axe (barbarians) and archer+spear Dawn of War for now. You don't need to go overboard unless you see continued power rise from TBW, in that case more axes are required. But definitely don't blindly trust a short conversation -- keep a contingency plan. TBH I think leaving the spear at 5/35 is sufficient for now as long as we get an archer. The granary is important.
Where is the settler going? I would've thought #5 for pigs sharing with the capital but your roads tell a different story. If the worker micro is set up for the river rice then that's good too. I see that we've currently got no whip anger, I think we should whip this next settler as soon as possible. Settling dotmap #5 is hugely profitable. I recommend whipping the next capital settler so that we get enough overflow to complete the granary with a single chop (or 2 turns of production).*
Another benefit of settling this as city #4 is that we can settle dotmap #3 on the hill because we've had time to claim the pigs by culture. It will be our border city with Mr. Cairo IIRC, so it's more important that it's on a hill.
Dotmap #5 also requires no worker turns until border pop which frees you up to chop granaries. If rice city is what we settle next then we should at minimum have a granary in time for growing 2 --> 3. 1 --> 2 would be ideal, but I'm not sure you'll have time. At least if we also want to chop a granary in Dawn of War (natural production +1 forest should do it, no?).IMO efficient granary chopping/whipping is more important than the Oracle, but in an ideal world you can do both.
*Or are you whipping it for 1 now and putting overflow in granary? I think I prefer the settler --> settler --> whip for 2 pop --> complete granary on size 3. And just for reference, when I say complete a granary on "x" size I mean completing it so that we have it fully stored with food before growing. But I presume it hasn't been so long since you've played that you've forgotten basic mechanics things like this?
TLDR: Basic protection, growth and granaries.