[NO PLAYERS] Squaring the Circle of Sevens (For Nine) - Map and Lurker Thread

[naufragar]

Those city spots he founded, even though not great, were the only places he could found and have a defensible border with a reasonable amount of land.

I'm not sure Miguelito (plus team) know this. I couldn't find a pic where they scouted Commodore's north and it's difficult to tell on the minimap. I don't think it's necessarily new or relevant info now, but I don't think they knew how pressed Commodore was against the sea.

[Zed-F]

See post 208 in their thread. They know where Comm's 2nd and 3rd cities are and have fullly mapped the border area by this point. I think it's sufficient information to know now where Comm would be likely to plant at the time, even if they didn't know then due to sub-optimal scouting.

[thestick]

On the first part I can't agree. Those cities claimed nothing of value for him besides one gold resource, which required him to conquer Pashupati. Just brown plains and hills. The border was defensible already, he had both border cities on hills, and good strategic depth. I can only see them as useful to fulfil the quest.
Of course I don't know what his NE, N, and W look like, so I don't really know if he had more room for expansion (he founded two more cities afterwards though). But I would think that Raskolnikov would have been more profitable at the time. I would assume that with 10+ HAs he would have taken that capital (and he's going that route now, at least that's what I hope). 

Miguelito's map:

The area:

I think Miguelito's misunderstanding boils down to this: he doesn't realize how bunched up against the sea Commodore is. He thinks there's a land connection north of Called Ryukyuan that Commodore could have used to invade Raskol... but there simply wasn't. Plus Comm had no strategic depth with only one city length between his capital, and the two new cities were simpe fishing villages, not the good cities that Miguelito is thinking of.

Guess this is the 'unknown unknowns' thing, or the power of scouting, or something. Miguelito put Comm into a box, and he didn't even realize it.

[El Grillo]

Across genres, scouting and vision win games. Finding out after the fact that you didn’t know there was a decision to be made is a pretty unpleasant spot to be in.

[Zed-F]

I get the feeling Cornflakes reacted prematurely; he should have gathered his army before revealing his intentions by declaring war, if he seriously wanted to try to catch Commodore's expeditionary forces while they were exhausted from conquering Carthage. Especially since he's got quite a bit less total power than Comm.

This war with Comm could turn out well for Inca, though.....

[Ramkhamhaeng]

Anyone could have worked out what happened there with PBspy + information that's available in-game, I don't think it's a big deal.

Yes, in vanilla Civ4:BTS the F4 Advisor give you some information about wars with nations which you hadn't met.
Maybe fixing this would be an desirable improvement for CtH/PB Mod, Charriu.

[Charriu]

And it's on the todo list. Thanks

[thestick]

Commodore accepted peace, but from my perspective this is just a peace on convenience until I get the right opportunity to attack. I am currently agonizing over whether to immediately gear for war of conquest for the Carthage peninsula, or whether I wait and trust in my ORG trait to prevail economically.

In favor of waiting:

• I currently have a massive happy cap compared to my city sizes
  
• Decent food potential for growing out to the happy cap
  
• Strong commerce relative to Japan ... Japan in only showing 8 gpt income. It looks like Commodore may suffer my fate from PB43, getting out to an early land and MFG lead with a conquest but then getting stuck in the bronze/iron age. (For reference I have 63 gpt while Inca is showing 80 gpt income)
  
• Commodore is stretched with a long border and I have many opportunities to fork in the future. Once Candlesticks pops borders (15 turns), razing Called Ryukyuan should cut off the peninsula from the rest of the Japanese empire. I think that tile is 4th ring to any other Japanese city so I should have control of that tile preventing Japanese re-settlement.
  
• Equivalent tech war at MGF disadvantage does not sound like a winning strategy.
  
• Defender's advantage should allow me to maintain safe borders.
  

In favor of immediately attacking:

• Not much
  
• Commodore gets 30-50 turns of use out of the cities to my north, and can grow them to whip down when I eventually attack.
  

Cornflakes offered peace, I accepted perhaps overly casually. Looks like he's being pretty Standard Issue Cornflakes and just pushing slightly without really attempting to seize the tempo. He might not attack in five turns, looks like, because he's got plenty of One More Techs to polish off before he has the perfect Commodore Killing Stack With Which To Win.

I am consistently impressed with Commodore's ability to read the game state/macro situation.

[thestick]

Bumping to intimidate Commodore.

I am amazed that Commodore has called Cornflakes' response to a T. Cornflakes thought, T92, that he had enough time to mobilize forces to stop a Commodore conquest of Raskol, but Commodore moved too fast. Then he held out until T101 to build cats/elephants for deterence, but it's T102, and Commodore's at his doorstep, and Cornflakes hasn't had the time to mobilize his forces yet.

Plus Commodore can see the strategic situation as well, that by waiting, he'll just fall behind and be cut off, so like it or not he has to attack now before Cornflakes can tech up. The bit with Construction is probably just bad luck, though...

As for whether this will work... I dunno.

[El Grillo]

Also bumping in response to Commodore. Cornflakes might be sweating with the prospect of both FT and Commodore having armies right at his borders while he's busy chopping his new cities out of the jungle, but I think catapults and all that newly whippable pop will be enough to deter or stop them. It is a good reminder that your opponents will move faster than you'd like when it suits you least.

Elsewhere on the map, how long until Ruff/FT realizes what superdeath has done with the Pyramids and decides it's worth snapping them up? His tech path of HBR/IW, but not Construction, could mean anything