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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond
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Tally as of post 1013:
Lynch votes 3 votes: superdeath (Serdoa, Commodore, Charriu) 2 votes: Charriu (superdeath, naufragar) Voting history: (September 14th, 2020, 07:17)naufragar Wrote: Other unresolved questions I have about the game: Why was Commodore, the self-avowed village Doctor, left alive for 2 nights? Surely he's a high priority wolf target. Why was Pindicator killed Night 4? He was an easy lynch today.Well, whoever is the wolf/wolves, they think a fellow killer is more of a threat. Killing Pindicator makes sense last night, and they knew darn well that I didn't trust Pin and there was zero chance of me protecting him. I claimed explicitly in the last couple minutes of Night 3, although a canny wolf might have picked up the breadcrumbs Night 2, so it's only one night I've lived. I'm surprised too, though: Superdeath, why was I never targeted in your wild murder spree of all villagers, including some of the most useful?
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Nauf, I think you gave yourself the answer in your post already. As you state yourself, your second point is just WIFOM. More importantly, I think you forgot to ask yourself though: What else was he going to do? It was clear we would all claim today and I think it was very clear that he would be a lynch candidate. If he is an anti-town role claiming vanilla villager before he can be certain that no one watched him at night is very risky, because if someone was watching he is an instant lynch. The only possibility left is to claim some role that can be explained to visit others at night. Doctor is out of the question, Comm claimed that already. Watcher or something to that effect himself is bad as well, because if he only comes up with dead targets that he visited, he won’t be believed. If he comes up with something before knowing what everyone else role is, it's again risky. The only role that you can claim in this situation as anti-town player is Vig. That explains were you where if someone watched you, that explains your “unlucky” shots… basically it explains everything neatly away. That’s why my reaction is instinctively to say “No way.”. And you mentioned another point as well, we had a situation with 2 players claiming 1-shot Vig, but superdeath sees fit to not only let that continue a whole day, does not add at least a little bit of text to his votes AND votes the next day not for the other claimant of 1-shot vig but for CMF?
Those things together just don’t add up. And they do so in a way that shows that what he claims is something he came up with last minute. With his low amount of play, you won’t find many contradictions (that’s why we don’t let players skate along normally), but we still found several already. So ask yourself, how likely do you think is it that what he does is not a daring play and instead everything is just coincidence? As for your question regarding the setup. I see a possibility that Rowain was right: Two wolf-teams of two players and an SK, with sleepy meaning that he is only active after one of the wolf-teams dies. (I'd also assume that his bulletproof was lost as soon as he was awoken, basically an insurance for BRick, so that his balance-tool doesn’t get killed off first) The events that happened would have been (going with red and purple team as Rowain did) N1: Team Red: Kills Gaspar; Team Purple: Kills Cyneheard N2: Team Red: Kills Lewwyn; Team Purple: Kills Meiz (or the other way round) N3: Team Purple: Kills GKC; N4: Team Purple: Kills pindicator; pindicator: Kills CMF And the most likely wolf-team 2 in that case is Commodore and superdeath. SD I probably don’t have to go into more details. As for Commodore: He never bothered to explain why he calls pindicator 90% certain SK on Day 4 and still rather votes Rowain. Though that makes sense, as SD and he himself probably felt safe (maybe didn’t even think pindi was an SK but believed his 1-shot vig claim). That would also explain why he voluntarily claimed Doctor as soon as scooter (and therefore the other wolf-team) was dead. It gave him basically lynch-immunity and he didn’t need to fear night-kills either obviously. Or at least he thought so till they realised something was off with pindi. Obviously, Comm might be Doctor as he claims as well. That would make Charriu or you the last wolf of that team and you left Comm live just for the reason to sow doubt. Whoever the partner would be though, SD would be the other half, so he gets my vote. Btw: I could also see that sleepy is indeed a security if the first SK dies too early to have a second one on stand-by. Which, yeah, that would point to SD currently as well. As for your post nauf, I stumbled upon something: naufragar Wrote:Do we have a second Serial Killer, this time with multiple shots? What do you mean with that? I can't really extract from pindicators role reveal that he did not have multiple shots? (September 14th, 2020, 08:55)Serdoa Wrote:naufragar Wrote:Do we have a second Serial Killer, this time with multiple shots? I would expect he read Pin's role as "1-shot, bulletproof" rather than "1-shot bulletproof". Are all kills accounted for assuming honesty? N1: Gaspar-wolves (he was on Cyneheard and Scooter, makes sense). Cyneheard-Superdeath. ElGrillo-Hid behind a victim. No Pindicator kill because he's sleepy? N2: Meiz-wolves AND Pindicator (on to Scooter...also on to Pin). My doctoring only counts for one death. Lewwyn-Superdeath.  N3: GKC - Superdeath.  Weird to lack other kills. Maybe Pindicator is sleepy and wolves try for Serdoa, who is healed?N4: Pindicator - wolves, because afraid of death. CMF - Superdeath.  Pindicator's kill doesn't go through because of Brick's initiative?This scenario is plausible, but really, really stupid. 
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I write RPG adventures, and blog about it, check it out. (September 14th, 2020, 07:17)naufragar Wrote: Serdoa and Charriu, both of you claim Superdeath's story is unbelievable, but what else explains the killings? Do we have a second Serial Killer, this time with multiple shots? If Superdeath is a wolf, he'd have to be in a separate pack to explain the double kills. Possible, but I'm doubtful. I thought about a lot of possible explanations for the night kills. Unfortunately we are still missing a lot of information to make adequate deductions. Things we don't know:
The wolf pack: First thing is how many wolves are there. We already killed 2 and 1 serial killer. The game is still running along, so there must be at least 1 more scum role in game. We also know that the village has at least 3 roles (4 with Commodores claim) and that the wolves had at least 1 role. With that I see the following possible setups: High scum town 17 players = 1 serial killer 4 wolves 12 villagers This is a tough setup for the village because of the 5 scum roles. With this setup I would assume that the wolves control 2 roles and the village 5 which would be somewhat even. This setup allows for Commodore and SD to be true about their claims. Low scum town 17 players = 1 serial killer 3 wolves 13 villagers With this setup I would assume that the wolves had 1 role and the village 4, which also turns out more or less even. This setup requires that one of either Commodore or SD lies. It also means that Cyneheard was the only one to have any powers in the scum team. Now there are other combinations, but I find those unlikely either because the amount of scum players is too high to be fair or because there would need to be more roles, which is contrary to the low-power game. I've been thinking about some of the possible scenarios for the kills: 1. Even sleeper In this setup, pindicators sleepy ability allows him only a kill at every even day, so night 2 and night 4. It also requires a High scum town. With this the following could have happened: Night 1: Gaspar = Killed by wolves El Grillo = hid behind Gaspar Cyneheard = Got himself killed in some way due to his JOAT abilities Night 2: Lewwyn = Killed by pindicator Meiz = Killed with the help of some unknown wolf power, if Commodore really is a doctor Night 3: GKC = Killed by wolves Night 4: CMF = killed by pindicator pindicator = killed by wolves, note that pindicators bulletproof must have been destroyed at some point before, maybe by Cyneheard in night 1 2. Odd sleeper In this setup, pindicators sleepy ability allows him only a kill at every odd day, so night 1 and night 3. It also requires a High scum town and that Commodore lied about his role. I do have to note that I find this scenario very unlikely. I only included it because somebody will ask about the odd sleeper at some point. With this the following could have happened: Night 1: Gaspar = Killed by wolves El Grillo = hid behind Gaspar Cyneheard = Killed by pindicator Night 2: Lewwyn = Killed by wolves Meiz = Killed with the help of some unknown wolf power Night 3: GKC = Killed by pindicator pindicator = The wolves kill his 1-shot bulletproof Night 4: CMF = killed by some unknown wolf power pindicator = killed by wolves 3. Slept in serial killer In this scenario pindicator was only allowed to start using his ability from day 2 on. It also requires a High scum town, but is also possible with a low scum town, if Commodore lied about his role. Night 1: Gaspar = Killed by wolves El Grillo = hid behind Gaspar Cyneheard = Got himself killed in some way due to his JOAT abilities Night 2: Lewwyn = Killed by pindicator Meiz = Killed with the help of some unknown wolf power, if Commodore really is a doctor otherwise just by wolves Night 3: GKC = Killed by pindicator pindicator = The wolves kill his 1-shot bulletproof Night 4: CMF = killed by pindicator pindicator = killed by wolves I see I cross-posted with Serdoa, who brought up a 2-wolf pack scenario, which also is possible.
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I would say that it's fairly certain that if there are only three wolves, the last wolf has some power role; village is loaded with Tracker, Hider, Commuter, and Doctor at least, plus Vigilante if SD is telling the truth (although vig is a notoriously jester-prone role). I'm going to say that making the casual assumption of one remaining scum is dangerous to even be considered anti-town. I would definitely assume we're at lylo. Or that we're at "Brick is toying with us and we've already lost" if Itchy McTrigger can't stop blasting a villager every night as a villager.
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*dangerous enough that I consider entertaining the notion to be anti-town, to be clear.
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I write RPG adventures, and blog about it, check it out. (September 14th, 2020, 09:13)Commodore Wrote: N1: Gaspar-wolves (he was on Cyneheard and Scooter, makes sense). Cyneheard-Superdeath. ElGrillo-Hid behind a victim. No Pindicator kill because he's sleepy? It is only plausible if we had for the first time the case that kill roles don't perform their kill if they get killed as well. There is no need to have an initiative on these, they always worked at the same time, killing off each other. I don't see a reason why this would ever be changed by BRick. You know what would be more likely Comm? On night 4 CMF got killed by pindi - because CMF stated he would lynch pindi, if just Rowain and you would have found it in you to switch. Additionally, why would SD kill Lewwyn N2, that makes no sense, in no world. Additionally, why would he kill GKC on N3? After we discussed a day long scooter and pindi and his role would tell him that both lie. Additionally, why would he vote for CMF on D4, when he knows that pindi was lying because with an unrestricted vig-shooter there is no way there is an additional 1-shot vig in town. Could we please stop trying to pretend that somehow superdeaths play would make any sense as villager? It doesn't, it is as simple as that. And it is not simply that he wanted to use his shots, no matter what, it is not that he read the game wrong, it is not that he was unlucky... his whole play makes no sense and in itself is inconsistent. He did not by chance work against the village, he simply worked against it by choice. Take D2: He starts voting for CMF (which he claims he later shot, but not on N2). He votes with Lewwyn for scooter AND he even cites Lewwyns "novel" as the reason to vote for scooter. Instead a villager was lynched and scooter was even more highly suspected by several players... and he shoots Lewwyn? Whatever role SD has, it is not one playing for town. (September 13th, 2020, 20:06)superdeath Wrote: I suspect we have just one wolf remaining. Although could be two. If there is only 1, we got a good chance of winning. If there are two.... well we better lynch one today. Charriu or Nauf sound like the best candidates, unless Serdoa or Commodore have been playing the best mind-game ever. Commodore Wrote:I would say that it's fairly certain that if there are only three wolves, the last wolf has some power role; village is loaded with Tracker, Hider, Commuter, and Doctor at least, plus Vigilante if SD is telling the truth (although vig is a notoriously jester-prone role). I'm going to say that making the casual assumption of one remaining scum is dangerous to even be considered anti-town. I would definitely assume we're at lylo. Or that we're at "Brick is toying with us and we've already lost" if Itchy McTrigger can't stop blasting a villager every night as a villager. I had to think about whom you meant, but yeah, I agree, that part of SDs play is pretty anti-town as well.
Okay, that's sufficient wriggling for me. Naufragar, Superdeath, attend.
As anyone not spilling tons of ink inventing elaborate theories about THREE scum factions or latching convoluted never-before-heard JOAT bomb abilities can tell, the mysteries are all solved. Superdeath has been playing a hilariously anti-town game, but his quixotic targeting, as bad as it was, follows from his own comments. HE IS BELIEVABLE. Thus, the sole remaining question I left open in my night-kill speculations, the one that I left open like I left open the silly Jack-of-all-Trades bomber theory, was that of "why did we have a night with just one kill?" Sure, Pindicator, who's been decent-to-middling at scumhunting might have shot Serdoa and I healed him, but there's still the third unexplained kill with SK, wolves, and Superdeath all killing. Except, obviously, that's not a mystery at all. THE WOLVES SHOT PINDICATOR AND HE WAS 1-SHOT BULLETPROOF. This leads us to a situation where the wolves, worried, are nearing lylo but they have a killer who can target them still on the loose. They rapidly figure out that it's likely a serial killer, because mild bulletproofing is a common power for SKs to have. They can try to kill him again, but wouldn't it be better if they could lynch him? (September 12th, 2020, 10:32)BRickAstley Wrote: Tally as of post 961:Yes, yes it would. So much better if they didn't have to waste another shot at Pindicator. So much better if they could keep anti-town but actually village Rowain alive (and my fault for turning him against us, I'll cop to it. I was so convinced he was a wolf acting indignant...). Alas, the villager who they've been buddying up to the last could days didn't jump, and so they had to fall back on Plan B: Nightkill Pindicator again and hope the bulletproofing was one-time-only. It worked. And hey, look, Superdeath made himself the mislynch of the day by admitting to mass-murder. But Naufragar, you know darned well that this horrible accidental murder spree is entirely in keeping with Superdeath, just as you know from his character that such an audacious lie isn't in his nature. So Serdoa and Charriu, well done. It was a good plan. The speculations were fun, and you've played a cautious game. But I think we're done now.
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