WW47: Small Mafia Shenanigans

[Alhambram]

Heads up: I am going sleep and tomorrow I need to go to work extra early and I exepect to be home after end of day 1 night, with other words next time that I can express my thoughts more here is at beginning of day 2.

There is still one unanswered question directed at me from Kaiser at his post #146.

this untrue statement, as thrawn was doing a lot but not flip-flopping his votes. See my argument above.

I challenge that no lynch would be the best outcome for a power wolf as lylo would be pushed a day by no lynch (see post 69). Apart from that I have established now for myself that the no lynching by thrawn has been a no issue.

Can you enlighten us @Alhambram?


I didn't know what to expect from day 1 of werewolf/mafia game, so I simply checked who did change votes the most and Thrawn's voting behaviour did stand out for me.
It seems that I tend to make blunt statements, not only at Thrawn but also against El Grillo initially when he posted question list which caused others call me upon for it.

As for no lynching thing, I didn't really gave much tought about lylo thing and pushing lylo by day. And I assumed that no lynching would benefit powerwolf most because he would be still ailive for night.
But I slowly start to get enlighted about what to do and don't in werewolf game and terms as lylo and other things, I am type player who is learning by experiencing mishaps.

I shall leave my view of others for start of day 2, if I am still alive at that point.

[WarriorKnight]

Wow, did not expect that. For the record, The Day ends at midnight my time and so like Amicalola I'm probably not going to be available at deadline. GG El Grillo.

Since we have some downtime:

I would love to hear your take (and everyone others) on whom you would visit as a friendly neighbor tonight?

Friendly Neighbor is the role I'm least sure what to do with tbh. I suppose by informing people you are town you can start building a network of people who trust you? Although there's no guarantee that you and your 'allies' will be alive by Day 3 (when there are 3 people on your side of 5 alive) to make a difference.

To answer your question though, I'd either visit Meiz (who is most actively town aligned) or thrawn (El Grillo's tunnelling clears a lot of suspicion from him imo).

[Amicalola]

Oh wow, nice job town!

I'd also visit Thrawn or Meiz, but most likely Thrawn, right now. El Grillo's tunneling on Thrawn makes him seem like arguably the safest pick for townie now.

Right now I'm still inclined to think of Alhambram or especially T-Hawk as votable targets to tomorrow, but we'll see what happens tonight and tomorrow morning I guess. GG El Grillo!

[pindicator]

Normally i would hush people talking at night but it's probably better for new people to talk through stuff and learn. just know that in general you do not want to give the other team more info during the night phase. If you think you might be targeted at night and want to get some final thoughts, it's customary to post within the last few minutes before the night deadline. I will do an end-of-night post myself since I think it's possible I get targeted by the last wolf.

[Meiz]

What do people think of Alhambram initial suspicion posts on El Grillo?
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid749525
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid749639

I initially suspected him from having too strong suspicion/accusation on a play that could be coming from either a helpful villager, or to be a neutral wolf play. Yet his initial read was wolf phishing out mislynches. What I'm wondering now is, would Alhambram's read be affected this way if he already knew El Grillo is a wolf. Something to talk about next day at least, as the night phases are nice chances to take an off day.

[Kaiser]

I would love to hear your take (and everyone others) on whom you would visit as a friendly neighbor tonight?

Friendly Neighbor is the role I'm least sure what to do with tbh. I suppose by informing people you are town you can start building a network of people who trust you? Although there's no guarantee that you and your 'allies' will be alive by Day 3 (when there are 3 people on your side of 5 alive) to make a difference.

To answer your question though, I'd either visit Meiz (who is most actively town aligned) or thrawn (El Grillo's tunnelling clears a lot of suspicion from him imo).

I would probably try to do two things, reduce yourself from the suspicion list for everybody you visited. So other townies have at least one save townie if you should survive until late in the game.
You won't survive however if you visit a wolf by accident as they have a higher interest to get rid of you due to the knowledge you can provide to others. For that reason my 2nd goal would be leaving clues whom I visited to town.

This is the reason I am asking, by stating whom you would visit, the town has some information on whom to hunt for if the night kill says "xxx was killed he was a friendly neighbor". If everybody or most people give this kind of information, it will be very hard for the wolves to single out a possible friendly neighbor but we have the information.
It might even lead to a higher survival rate of friendly neighbors as wolfs could try to mindgame here by not killing him, it would make later lynch votes more difficult for them though. As only 1 wolf is left, he would likely loose on a 3 person decision if a friendly neighbor still lives, as the other townie hopefully knows by then who the friendly neighbor is.

Oh wow, nice job town!

I'd also visit Thrawn or Meiz, but most likely Thrawn, right now. El Grillo's tunneling on Thrawn makes him seem like arguably the safest pick for townie now.

Right now I'm still inclined to think of Alhambram or especially T-Hawk as votable targets to tomorrow, but we'll see what happens tonight and tomorrow morning I guess. GG El Grillo!

The more the better the cover, it would be better though if you focus on 1 person per night, as the trail is cleaner then.

Normally i would hush people talking at night but it's probably better for new people to talk through stuff and learn.   just know that in general you do not want to give the other team more info during the night phase.  If you think you might be targeted at night and want to get some final thoughts, it's customary to post within the last few minutes before the night deadline.  I will do an end-of-night post myself since I think it's possible I get targeted by the last wolf.

Sure, sure, I hush up, just let me finish here. I think I might anyway be in danger and I have the spare time to write this now and am not sure if I will already be at home when the deadline finishes (commuting today, but hopefully I will be back by 17:30 CEST)

My following role recommendations/actions would be:
Doctor - protect Meiz or Pindicator (I cannot protect myself)
Jailkeeper - jail Alhambram
Cop - investigate Amicalola
Tracker - track Thawk
Friendly Neighbor - visit Pindicator
Mason - nothing this is a passive role

I believe likely to die tonight are Meiz, Pindicator and me. Thrawn still has some suspicion and the situation for the wolf is dire as he has to play a long game now. Lylo shifted to the lynch vote of Day 4 where 2 townies are against 1 wolf.
As there are guaranteed 2 roles in town, we should be in a good position to win this if we play a good game.

I even started considering a mass reveal at the beginning of Day 2, this would help narrowing down which (if) power role the wolf has and we could coordinate better, have a discussion where the wolf might trip up.
However, writing this, I am still undecided myself and I would like you guys to think on this subject so we can have a discussion as soon as Day 2 starts (but not before please).

[Meiz]

Not a bad idea. I would visit Kaiser as friendly neighbor.

[Meiz]

Yes you are correct on setting a specific targer for PR's. Wolves could just work around it. I liked Kaiser's idea of everyone just stating who they'd visit as friendly neighbor themselves, so it leaves a breacrumb. If everyone just states it, it shouldn't give much clues for wolves on who the real neighbor is, if we'd have one in the game.

[pindicator]

Well, there is a chance I get night killed tonight so here's where I stand in this game right now.

Thrawn is town. Not just for the reasons that I gave yesterday when I defended him, but now we know that thrawn was the preferred target of a known wolf in El Grillo. El Grillo stayed on thrawn all day and didn't make a case on anybody else. For that reason there is no way in my mind that thrawn is village. He's about as confirmed as they get.

Meiz is also town. He joined me on the El Grillo train early and even more important called out my vote off El Grillo at the end. His vote to El Grillo made it a 3-way-tie between thrawn, T-Hawk, and El Grillo. If he was El Grillo's buddy he could possibly do the first if they thought El Grillo was going to not make it - very unlikely but I suppose possible. But then calling out the swap off and not saving El Grillo himself by voting T-Hawk means Meiz cannot be El Grillo's buddy to me. Too much lost by going to just 1 wolf on the first day.

What gave me pause yesterday and why I switched back to T-hawk was that I got suspicious of Kaiser. Kaiser had been voting Thrawn during the day and making his case for a Thrawn lynch. He had mentioned T-Hawk a couple times as being suspicious but didn't think he would "reveal as much information". I hate that kind of reasoning. It makes me think there's a wolf trying to find an excuse not to vote for someone and yet also say they were on their case if that person later gets flipped. I got to thinking of a Kaiser/T-hawk group that I helped give cover to by pushing El Grillo instead of just voting T-hawk.

However with El Grillo flipping wolf, I find it hard to believe a wolf would want to bus their teammate on day 1 and try to go it alone thereafter. Which pretty much cuts the field down to 3. This shouldn't be taken as saying the wolf has to be among the people who didn't vote T-hawk, but we should definitely start here.

As far as neighboring, I would use my power on any one of thrawn/Meiz/Kaiser as they seem the least likely to be the wolf.

My biggest suspicions, like everyone else, are on T-hawk. His disappearnce makes me think he's resigned to the fact that we have figured this out and he doesn't feel he can talk out of it. This would explain why El Grillo was pushing thrawn so hard; he felt like he had to get an alternative to T-hawk going and didn't have the experience to know that you can easily get people going on other suspicious targets / people are really just feeling things out on day 1. So unless T-hawk shows up with a good reason to explain his lack of participation, he seems the best target to me.

[Kaiser]

I am back on time, here are my latest opinions:

Town lean:

Pindicator
Pindicator plays a different game than most, the El Grillo train is his strong point

Meiz
I was doubtful of Meiz at the beginning as he was correct that discussion about roles might be a way to ignore more dangerous topics for wolves early on. 
I learned something here and also started to question if I am not ranking him lower than I should due to his stance against my argument.
It would be an amazing wolf play to lay out that this discussion is the best way to hide for as a wolf, especially in a newbie game where it could backfire more easily I believe.

Undecided:

Warrior Knight
There was some real suspicion from my side about his early Day 1 play, but he started changing gears in the right moment and right way to sway me. I am still undecided as there was more the 2nd half of Day2 but still there are some lingering doubts. Maybe I am reading to much into the implied thread in #77 .

Thrawn
Very difficult to narrow down as he sometime has important participation and sometimes just filler posts. Was definitively dancing on the very edge with his "presenting a lynchable target", maybe even a bit to far and to inconsistent in his play.
I really like the time he invested to answer my post, while not all information were new, some explained his posts before better/clearer to me and I have a slight town lean. Plus points for pindicator having a not-wolf lean #128 as well
Was saving his sking with the El grillo vote but counts

No time again, most wolfy
Thawk
Alhambram
Amicalola (not strong)