American Politics Discussion Thread

[MJW (ya that one)]

Situation in GA has degraded for GOP; it's now tilt R for both races.

I've thought about how I did for my Senate predictions and even if GOP wins both GA races they are not very good. Putting SC at Solid R was correct (I lowered it in response to GKC but I've posted the same map on other websites so I consider it my final map), but it should have clued me in that something was wrong. I should have shifted AZ, MI, ME and NC by one level. IA too considering Selzer=God.

[darrelljs]

These polls make the situation in GA seem like lean D but the Republican's fate improving?

Darrell

[Cyneheard]

These polls make the situation in GA seem like lean D but the Republican's fate improving?

Darrell

It feels like a true toss-up to me. It's not like Perdue got more votes by that much in November.

- Turnout is pretty high. Already at 700k early votes (mail and in-person), which is only 12% below the general election pace.
- Polls have generally given a small edge to the Dems, and the polls were fine in Georgia this year.
- The Trump nonsense about the Pres election is not helping the GOP.

[Commodore]

These polls make the situation in GA seem like lean D but the Republican's fate improving?

Darrell

I believe the only thing generally agreed by everyone everywhere is that 2020 proved that polls are a crapshoot.

...but if you believe polls, and that the polls that show something like >70% of Republican electorate believes the election was stolen...then I guess turnout will be a fun way of showing via revealed preferences how much they actually believe that.

[Cyneheard]

These polls make the situation in GA seem like lean D but the Republican's fate improving?

Darrell

I believe the only thing generally agreed by everyone everywhere is that 2020 proved that polls are a crapshoot.

...but if you believe polls, and that the polls that show something like >70% of Republican electorate believes the election was stolen...then I guess turnout will be a fun way of showing via revealed preferences how much they actually believe that.

Polls aren't that precise, but it's not like they were 40% off either.

So Darrell looking at a bunch of polls that net to ~+1 for Warnock and Ossoff and saying it's "Lean D" based solely on that, he's reading too much into them (especially when Ossoff just finished behind Perdue; I don't put much value in the specific results from Warnock's race because it had 20 candidates, not ~3).

[Jowy]

Streaming copyrighted content is now a felony in America. Looks like young people weren't doing enough weed. Gotta keep those prisons full.

[suboptimal]

The felony streaming provisions apply to website operators providing streams, not individuals consuming streams. The CASE Act provisions that got through are more likely to cause problems in the Instasnaptiktubeverse as you can get pulled into the tribunal with no warning and be looking at $15k-$30k in possible damages per infraction.

[superdeath]

looks like just another way to hurt people trying to make a living via streaming on twitch/ect

[Jowy]

Trump and the democrats teaming against the republicans. Things we thought we'd never see in 2020.

[Mjmd]

Trump and the democrats teaming against the republicans. Things we thought we'd never see in 2020.

I think Trump is trying to legacy build here / give himself something to brag about later / set himself up for future election. It could also be a screw you Republicans you didn't support me enough overthrowing Democracy. Or something else; who knows.