Posts: 4,751
Threads: 25
Joined: Sep 2006
Current Map
Changes:
PA: Fetterman is strong (shotgun) and should win primary. Only time DEMs "chosen one" didn't win, in a Senate Primary that mattered, was Specter in 2010 but he wasn't the real chosen one anyway because he was terminally ill and if he won the GOP would have been able to use Tom Ridge. Lean-->Likely D.
NH: Sununu's reaction to the Chauvin verdict makes me sure he'll declare. The two polls up have him leading and Biden's Honeymoon ending and Capitol riot fading from memory is more important than the increased polarization midterms bring. Tilt D-->Tilt R.
GA: Walker doesn't have the power level I feel (Collins isn't running). Tilt-->Lean D.
AK: DEMs have no chance this year but there will be a RINO vs MAGA contest. DEMs have been making no noise so now I assume that they will T-A-N-K on purpose to get Lisa in the final round. If that happens MAGA has no chance but I'm not sure so it's not Solid. Lean-->Likely RINO
Map is stable now so it's just reacting to polls and you might as well use 538 for that... Don't expect consistent updates from here.
Overall rating: Lean D.