American Politics Discussion Thread

[Cyneheard]

I've seen two different stats on how that republican win in Virginia came to be, one being that democratic voters didn't come to the polls (apparently 46% of voters for the governatorial election voted for Biden and 46% for Trump, when the state voted for Biden by 10 points) and the other that there was a strong swing with white women (from +14 Biden last year to -1D McAuliffe). It looks like the democrats got complacent in their messaging to voters, believing that anti-Trumpism would win elections even after 2020.

Exit polls aren't that precise during the day of the election, so take that 46-46 with a grain of salt, but look at Loudoun County (Northern Virginia suburbs, ground zero for this education discussion): Biden won 62-37. McAuliffe only won 55-45. There's vote flipping going on there, it's not just "Trump voters showed up more than Biden voters".

And it's "gubernatorial".

[AdrienIer]

Yes I agree that some of that swing is right wingers in the suburbs who were disgusted with Trump's style that are returning to their default vote.

[Jowy]

The governor race isn't that big of a deal compared to the infrastructure bill getting torn apart by Democrats themselves.

[T-hawk]

I think VA probably didn't have much to do with the specifics of either candidate. Look at both New Jersey and the CA recall, where the same thing happened, a wild shift of 10% or so towards the GOP in a normally blue state. (And the media unwittingly helped: desperate for attention post-Trump, they cherry-picked whatever stories would make the races seem closer, which fired up the GOP to fight and actually make them close.)

People are absolutely sick of the Dems bullshittery, on Covid and all the adjacent economic and school issues, on anti-police and all the adjacent rioting and looting, on social issues and the adjacent demonizing of white or straight or wealthy people.

Fear is always the most powerful motivator. The Dems built their brand on fear of Trump, but now that swings the other way, the Dems' extreme leftism is now the threat to your job and money and children and safety.

[Jowy]

I think VA probably didn't have much to do with the specifics of either candidate.  Look at both New Jersey and the CA recall, where the same thing happened, a wild shift of 10% or so towards the GOP in a normally blue state.  (And the media unwittingly helped: desperate for attention post-Trump, they cherry-picked whatever stories would make the races seem closer, which fired up the GOP to fight and actually make them close.)

People are absolutely sick of the Dems bullshittery, on Covid and all the adjacent economic and school issues, on anti-police and all the adjacent rioting and looting, on social issues and the adjacent demonizing of white or straight or wealthy people.

Fear is always the most powerful motivator.  The Dems built their brand on fear of Trump, but now that swings the other way, the Dems' extreme leftism is now the threat to your job and money and children and safety.

Specifics on the bolded?

[Jowy]

A song in solidarity with the oppressed white rich males:

[T-hawk]

To be clear, I'm not directly talking about the positions -- I'm talking about how they're perceived by swing voters.

Enough voters became scared of images like the Dems are going to mask your children forever, deny them college admissions to favor diversity groups, tax you in the name of infrastructure until you can't afford your house, impose Covid mandates on your employer until your job is gone, impose carbon mandates until your car is gone, defund the police until your house gets burned down in the next riot, and so on.

I'm not speaking anything about the accuracy or reality of those perceptions -- just how the perception of them swung the fear meter against the Dems instead of against Trump as it had been the last four years. Whether they are oppressed doesn't matter -- it's whether they feel oppressed.

[Jowy]

To be clear, I'm not directly talking about the positions -- I'm talking about how they're perceived by swing voters.

Enough voters became scared of images like the Dems are going to mask your children forever, deny them college admissions to favor diversity groups, tax you in the name of infrastructure until you can't afford your house, impose Covid mandates on your employer until your job is gone, impose carbon mandates until your car is gone, defund the police until your house gets burned down in the next riot, and so on.

I'm not speaking anything about the accuracy or reality of those perceptions -- just how the perception of them swung the fear meter against the Dems instead of against Trump as it had been the last four years.  Whether they are oppressed doesn't matter -- it's whether they feel oppressed.

In that case I actually agree with you.

[Cyneheard]

I think VA probably didn't have much to do with the specifics of either candidate.  Look at both New Jersey and the CA recall, where the same thing happened, a wild shift of 10% or so towards the GOP in a normally blue state.  (And the media unwittingly helped: desperate for attention post-Trump, they cherry-picked whatever stories would make the races seem closer, which fired up the GOP to fight and actually make them close.)

People are absolutely sick of the Dems bullshittery, on Covid and all the adjacent economic and school issues, on anti-police and all the adjacent rioting and looting, on social issues and the adjacent demonizing of white or straight or wealthy people.

Fear is always the most powerful motivator.  The Dems built their brand on fear of Trump, but now that swings the other way, the Dems' extreme leftism is now the threat to your job and money and children and safety.

CA recall wasn't a shift.

Recall: No won 62-38. ~200,000 more No votes than Newsom received in 2018.
Newsom won in 2018 62-38.
Biden CA won 63-34.

Given the weirdness of the Recall ballot, "the Yes on recall got the third-party + GOP vote from 2020" is not a meaningful shift.

At the time, Biden was ~10 points more popular than he is today, so it's not terribly surprising that things have moved 10 points against Dems in the past few months.

[civac2]

Liberal and left are two quite different positions.