Chevalier Plays AGEOD Let's Play/AAR

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

"Here have the Ardennes for free" - how big of a mistake was that? It seems like CP just let you have an easy path to cutting him off in Belgium - what am I missing?

Especially with how narrow their line into Belgium is - yay for Dutch neutrality.

I'm not sure if it's a trap, it seems like such a blunder. The best I can figure is that he's going to rail in reinforcements to Malmedy this month and will launch attacks on the shoulder of my salient, striking from Namur and Neufchateau at the Ardennes. If successful, he could lure Third Armee to Malmedy, where it suffers a bloody repulse, and cut its retreat behind it. But I am moving Joffre's General Reserves into the territory, and shifting French armies from all along the line (thinning out the front to the south, from Verdun to Switzerland). The Neufchateau force looks to be only about 1-2 corps in strength, and the larger force at Namur both has to cover its front to the south at Dinant and cross the Meuse to attack the Ardennes, so I don't think he can succeed. 

The armies in Belgium right now are entirely dependent on Malmedy-Liege - it's the only rail connection into the country Germany holds. Liege is held by only 2 corps (but only threatened by my Belgian army, which has little offensive power). So, if I can just win a toehold in Malmedy (I expect reinforcements to be railed in this turn), I have a good prospect of digging in and forcing Germany to take costly attacks in an effort to dig me out and save his Belgian army group. If those attacks fail, then we could be looking at Stalingrad in Brussels. 

I regret pulling the BEF now - I didn't expect many offensive opportunities on this front, so I pulled Kitchener and another British army out to redeploy on other fronts, but having 2 armies in reserve now would be fantastic. My French reserves (stationed at Nancy on the Moselle) are ample, but unorganized into armies as I lack the commanders for them. Still, I may gamble and pull even more armies out of the southern end of the line to try and close the noose in Belgium - victory there will be war-winning while losing a bit of the southern border will take a while and isn't an existential threat regardless.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Late April 1915 - The Second Battle of the Ardennes

The Entente spring offensive is underway, gentlemen, and already cataclysmic battles have erupted in the thick forests beyond the French frontier. Our efforts to cut off the German army group in Belgium provoked the predicted savage German counter-attacks - and at the end of the day, the French army holds the field:



The first round of fighting lasts from April 15 - April 22. In a week, Joffre’s 300,000 men are attacked by an equal number of Germans striking from Namur eastwards, over the Meuse just as we foresaw. The superior French artillery and the river crossing negates the German advantage in troop morale and quality, and 70,000 men fall on both sides before General von Boehn is forced to halt his attack, unable to break the French lines in the thick woods around Bastogne.

After three days of reorganization, Erich von Falkenheyn himself takes over from OHL, arriving with another 80,000 men for the Germans, and renews the attack:


50,000 Frenchmen fall, as do 60,000 Germans, but once again our lines hold. In two weeks of slaughter both sides lose over 120,000 troops as casualties (Central Powers casualties now top 1,000,000 for the entire war for the first time) -  a bloody tactical draw that is a fairly significant Entente strategic victory:



First Armee successfully reaches the Dutch border late in April, 1915! The German rail lines into Belgium are cut! First and Second Armees are cut off, as is Falkenheyn’s central reserve - all told, more than a dozen German army corps and a huge gaggle of associated divisions and supports are all in Belgium now with French armies astride their line of reinforcement and resupply.

Second Armee failed to break through at Bastogne and is in the province, low on cohesion. Joffre’s General Reserve and my own First Armee to the north are both also severely battered, while I have the British Second Army (one of two British armies remaining in theater) and French Quartreme Armee moving to reinforce the Ardennes and Bastogne.

Also, note that Namur was completely emptied by the German counterattack. Only a tiny garrison force - 18 combat power, less than a regiment - remains to hold the forts, which are the only rail link from the Belgian border to Brussels. If I retake Namur, even if Germany breaks through at Bastogne the massive force in Brussels will still be cut off.

I have to move quickly. Germany still has nearly 5,000 combat power either in the pocket or immediately adjacent to it, while I muster only about 2500. I decide to boldly pull armies off the line all the way to Swiss border, leaving only corps to hold the front south of Verdun. Instead, every available maneuver force is going to rail into the Ardennes, a grand effort to clamp this kessel shut and finish off the 3 German armies inside the pocket:




Assaults are aimed at the shoulders and at Namur, to widen the breach, penetrate the new gaps in the line, and to pin down breakout or relief efforts. A huge hole in the German lines gapes between Malmedy and the Rhine - a successful offensive in that area would unhinge the entire German line in the Rhineland area. That will be my exploitation if I can hold the pocket and annihilate as many of the encircled German corps as I can. A victory here is quite possibly war-winning, so we put everything we have into it. If only I hadn’t withdrawn Kitchener, but I had no idea this opportunity would be offered!

Speaking of, Kitchener suffers a ghastly surprise when his convoy falls in with none other than the High Seas Fleet:





Only two transports are sunk, but how  the hell did Hipper get out here? He had to either slip through the Channel - mined and patrolled by submarines - or slip past the blockade box to the Atlantic. Historically, this could never have happened, but with 15-day turn resolutions and wonky naval mechanics, bold Central Powers players can pull it off in To End All Wars.

Well, I order the convoy to scatter and flee for Canadian ports, the closest safe harbors, while Jellico (his telegraph practically melting with the volume of furious messages flying in from the Admiralty) gets the Grand Fleet’s steam up and heads towards the Atlantic in pursuit. Hipper has to either withdraw back through the Channel or make a run into the Mediterranean to reach safe harbor. If he runs into the Med, he has to sail beyond Sicily and Malta, through the straits of Otranto and to Pola (or beyond Greece to Ottoman harbors), where I’ll join with the French fleet and bottle him up again. If he tries to run through the Channel, he has to slip right past Jellico and I have a good chance to intercept and batter him a bit.

Elsewhere, Cameroon finally falls after a six-month siege:



Africa is now fully Entente, apart from the renegade German Ost Africa army, still on the loose in Kenya:


About two divisions’ worth of troops, with multiple Allied corps converging. A waste of my resources? Not really - these are colonial troops, of little use on a European battlefield. They’re lightly armed and low on morale - anything with heavy artillery (ie, a German infantry division) would shred them before they managed to inflict any damage. They do better against the light German troops in Africa, and the victories bag me easy Victory Points and occasionally national morale.

Losses:


The Central Powers have lost a million men, compared with 1.125 million from the Entente powers. Not a bad ratio at all, given that we outnumber the Centrals by about 1.3 to 1, and that’ with the Ottomans in and no US or Italy yet on our side.

National morale is raised 2 points in France by the Belgian victories, while it falls by 2 in the Centrals. Russia has 90, we have 87, and the Centrals only 85. The blockade is firmly in place, Africa has fallen, the Eastern Front is standing strong (Russia has withdrawn to Warsaw, but has also overrun Galicia and Serbia is defiant yet), and of course an entire German army group is cut off in Belgium. Stay tuned!

[shallow_thought]

Never underestimate the ability of the upper echelons of the WWI Admiralty to ignore their (rather good) intelligence sources. A comparison with the highly productive WWII relationship is instructive .

More importantly, still enjoying these.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Late May 1915 - The Liberation of Belgium

No sense beating around the bush - von Falkenheyn, knowing the situation of his encircled armies in Belgium is desperate, hurls his entire army against the thin blue line of Frenchmen holding the forest passes in Malmedy - and manages to break through:



Starting on May 4,1915, 420,000 Germans run right over 280,000 Frenchmen in Louvain, as Lanzerac’s 6th Army tries to firm up the wedge between Brussels and Liege. It’s a bad tactical defeat for the Entente as we lose twice as many soldiers as the Central Powers, 60,000 to 30,000. 6th Army was mostly made up of militia and reservists - note the multiple divisions of Guard Civique in each corps, as well as the huge disparity in artillery between the two armies. So, the Germans were losing mostly trained regulars, which is how I’m choosing to spin this as a positive.

Four days later, Falkenheyn’s sledgehammer hits the 140,000 men of 1st Army holding Malmedy and blocking his escape. He musters even more men for this attack, 430,000 for odds of over 3:1, including 2:1 in cannon.


1st Army gives as good as it gets, but is forced to yield the ground to the Germans. 60,000 dead Germans against 90,000 dead Frenchmen, but the end result in Belgium? Liberation:



Von Kluck’s massive force in Brussels has evaded Entente intelligence and we have no clear idea of his whereabouts, beyond “sure as hell not in Brussels.” The fortresses at Namur are back in Allied hands, and in fact, all of Belgium apart from Falkenheyn’s legions still encamped around Liege is clear of the enemy. Here’s another screenshot explaining the different forces in view:




Von Bulow’s tattered II Armee hasn’t recovered from its pasting at Bastogne last month and is a slender reed holding Malmedy. Von Falkenheyn is at Liege, dependent upon Malmedy for his communications, with fully 7 corps around him plus supporting units - nearly 2 armies. So that’s 3 armies still in striking distance in Belgium. At Ettelbruck in northern Luxembourg are 2 German corps, a small army, and the German “Northern Army” is in Luxembourg city itself. Call it perhaps 4 ½ armies visible from Thionville on the Mosel all the way to the Dutch border. Against that, I have First Armee (bloodied and needing a rest at Bastogne), Joffre’s GHQ and Fourth Armee also at Bastogne, Third Armee just to the south holding the flank at Montmedy, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, and Ninth Armees spread out through Belgium in pursuit, and the British Second and Fourth Armies also available. That gives me 10 armies in hand to hit these Germans, nine of them fighting fit, so I order the offensive to continue.

Against that, note how battered II Armee is for the Germans:


Moving towards Cologne still - retreating. Probably won’t catch him but we can try. Most units are down to 20% fighting strength or even lower, so a battle will probably shatter this force.

Von Falkenheyn:


Fully seven corps and other units, but most not organized into an army and so capable of only limited offensive action. Dangerous if we attack but I don’t plan to attack Liege.

The primary objective is to recapture Malmedy before the Germans can dig in, and savage Falkenheyn as he tries to escape (or cut him off if he attempts to hold his ground at Liege). Secondary objective is to push to the east against the weaker forces in Luxembourg, to rip the front wide open and drive Falkenheyn’s supports further away from him:


A welter of rails and crisscrossing lines as tired units dig in to hold the ground thus gained and fresh units rail past to drive the wedge deeper into Germany. We hope to put Entente boots onto German soil this month!

Overseas, the Germans in East Africa suffer their first defeat, losing 2,000 men as the siege of Mombasa is broken and von Lettow-Vorbeck driven into the Kenyan interior:




It’s a small thing but the Germans here are outnumbered, have no place to run, and are slowly losing control of the province. I will keep the pressure on until destroyed.

In the East, the Tsar announces that his offensive into Galicia is proceeding well. Apart from a bloody repulse of Hindenburg last fall, there’s been little large-scale fighting here, and he reports a visible drawdown in German units across the front, presumably corps being detached to go to the Western Front as our Ardennes offensive really gathers momentum:


Note that most of Congressional Poland has been overrun, presumably without a fight, while the Russians stand on the Vistula and at Warsaw. Galicia is deeply invaded, but Rumania will soon join the Centrals and threaten Russia’s flank.

Objectives:


German losses climb by 103,500 men from all causes. The Entente loses 90,000 and the Russians 56,000 during their offensive. Everyone’s morale falls one point as the war drags on.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Early June 1915 - the Great Retreat?

A fairly short update to cover the final two weeks of May, as there are no major battles on the Western Front:



Joffre reaches Malmedy, confronted by Falkenheyn's mess of corps as the Central Powers continue their evacuation of Belgium. Exhausted, the French dig in a few short miles from the Dutch border, while tens of thousands of German troops march by just a short distance to the north. It's frustrating, but Joffre is indeed about out of momentum and refuses to order an attack - he's very badly outnumbered by the Germans in the area. 

The air war is starting to heat up, as up and down the Western Front French and German planes begin to dogfight with the coming of spring and the advent of more advanced plane types. Honors are about even, but we do detect I. Armee again, digging in around Aachen:

 

So that's where von Kluck escaped to! In addition to his 4 corps, 4. Armee is present as well around the city, and the unattached IX Corps is present, giving the Germans something like 9 or 10 corps on their border. Nord Armee is just south of there, on the fringe of the Ardennes, and it looks as if 2. Armee has evacuated as far as Cologne:

 

So, apart from a rear guard around Liege, it looks like the Germans are committing to a static defense of the German border in the West. This is a vast shortening of the line, and while the results are disappointing, as much of the German army group in Belgium makes its escape, we ought to be fairly satisfied with what we've accomplished. We managed to absorb the German Schlieffen offensive and launch a counteroffensive of our own, completely clearing the enemy from our soil at a comparatively low cost in casualties, considering we were on the attack most of the time. We tried to throw too many men through too small roads in the Ardennes, slowing up our offensive, and that enabled the Central Powers to successfully evacuate and begin setting up a new defensive line. 

Prospects for offensive action seem low in the West this year. Here's the entire front:

 

I order a converging attack on Liege to clear Belgium, as well as more reinforcements to join Joffre in Malmedy - the hope is to cut off those few corps still in Belgium and prevent their escape. Otherwise, I resume withdrawing the BEF from France, as the new shorter line can be held with my 9 French and 1 Belgian army alone. The Germans are strong in the Aachen area and around Metz-Thionville in the center, but they may be weak on the right, near Switzerland, and there may also be a weakness in the left-center around Luxembourg. I'm going to regroup and redistribute my armies and then consider possibilities. 

Overseas, the war in Kenya continues against dwindling Germans:









11,000 Entente soldiers fall against 8,000 Germans, but the Ost Afrika Army  is down to just 15,000 ragged troopers. By summer's end the continent should be entirely in our hands. 

Diplomatically, Italy is now leaning 60% Entente, and the Tsar has promised a grand offensive this summer in the Caucasus, which will [Trigger the Armenian Genocide event and tilt Italy even further Entente] reveal suspected Ottoman atrocities against the Armenians, which we hope to use to persuade Rome to side with us once and for all. The US is now 55% Entente as well, averaging about 1% drift a week - so before summer of 1916 we can expect the Americans to join in, too, possibly sooner if the Germans torpedo the wrong passenger liner (still waiting on the Lusitania event to fire!). On the negative side of things, Rumania is expected to declare war on Russia by the end of summer. Their army is of low quality and Bessarabia is a long way from anywhere, but it could pose a severe strain on Serbia and will force Russia to divert forces to defense. 

In cooperation with Russia, we are transferring most of the BEF to the Middle East and are contemplating possibilities for landings:

 

Rail supply is very difficult in this region, and the Turks have planted massive fields of naval mines outside every port, but there are possibilities nonetheless. We are contemplating landings near Antioch, an offensive up the Tigris and Euphrates to link up with Russia, or landings deeper into Turkey, even at the Dardenelles itself. 

Navally, the High Seas Fleet vanished from the Atlantic, we suspect back to Wilhelmshaven on the North Sea. The Grand Fleet is back at Scapa Flow and is ready to defend the blockade in the north, while the French fleet is fresh and rested and partnering with the Japanese to enforce the blockade on the Austrians and Ottomans. 

Overall, we are optimistic. The Entente has won, though not decisively, on all fronts, East, West, and overseas, and the naval war is firmly under control. The diplomatic war is broadly favorable, too, as Italy seems to be settling into our camp after the scare over the winter, and the US primed for a relatively early entry. 




Quite how the Centrals managed to raise their morale 5 points, I don't know. But they lost an additional 45,000 men this turn, to 12,000 Western and 36,000 Eastern losses. Eastern combat power fell fully 6% relative to us, and Central Powers fell 13%! The Tsar's Galician offensive must be drawing blood. Overall we have about 18 soldiers for every 13 Centrals soldiers, which isn't bad considering the Ottomans jumped in.

[shallow_thought]

Diverting the entire BEF to the middle east seems somewhat Churchillian, but if there are meaningful objectives down there ...

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Well, to be fair, I'm making a much more massive commitment than Churchill did. Rather than one ANZAC corps, I'm committing 5 full armies - 3rd Army is already present, as are the 4 corps that will become 5th Army once Kitchener arrives, Kitchener, after ducking into Canada to avoid the High Seas Fleet, is presently in transit across the Med to Alexandria with 1st Army, and 2nd and 4th are pulling out of line in Belgium to move to the Channel ports for transport.

With the liberation of Belgium, the front is actually fairly short to defend, and has good rough terrain and rivers in most places. I could keep the British in place to try and exploit a French offensive, but one touchstone of my doctrine thus far has been a continued refusal to attack head-on into German fortified positions if alternatives exist (I'll do it if there are no other good options and I need to pin down German troops to help Russia, otherwise, no). So, there's not a lot of opportunities for them there, and I don't want them to sit idle behind the front.

So, where to employ them? A landing on the North Sea coast is out - the German mines are thick, the ports are well-fortified, and the HSF is there to muck things up. It's far too risky, I'd probably get my 5 British armies isolated and destroyed. I considered Austria's coast, but the terrain is mountainous and again, tons of sea mines. That leaves the Ottoman Empire. The Ottomans I know can only really field 4 armies at the start of the war, and I"m not sure where German recruitment has gone but I would bet he's recruiting higher quality German divisions before he's recruiting Ottomans. So, the Sublime Porte SHOULD be vulnerable, IF I can get ashore in a place that allows me to use my numbers well and to supply myself.

My thinking is that 5th Army can push up the railroad from Port Said to Gaza, pinning down Ottoman defenders. Only two rail lines run from Turkey to Palestine and beyond, both running past the coast near Antioch. So I'll land with my other 3-4 armies there (not sure if I want a second army down on the Sinai front), capture the port, and push inland to cut the railroad. I will lose transports to mines, but hopefully I can clear the mines, use the French fleet to cover myself against any sorties by the Ottomans, and secure a good foothold. From there all of the Middle East south of Turkey ought to be cut off and fall into my lap - the Hedjaz, Palestine, Syria, maybe even Mesopotamia. Further, there might be the possibility of an offensive northwards to link up with Russians coming through the Caucasus.

While it lacks the grace of a direct knockout blow on Constantinople, it should strain Ottoman defenses and make full use of my numeric superiority in a theater where I also have qualitative superiority. If I can get ashore in strength, I'm confident of victory in the campaign.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

June 1915 - The Battle of Malmedy

When Entente High Command gets the latest reports from the front, the top of the massive stack of reports waiting for them is that of Gen. Joffre. Joffre reports an absolutely cataclysmic battle in the depths of the Ardennes, near the vital crossroads of Malmedy. Still more German columns are attempting to evacuate the collapsing Hun position in Belgium, while Joffre, alongside First and Third Armees, has dug in around the crossroads and attempting to block the German retreat. Driven by desperation on both sides, the result is possibly the most ferocious battle in history, one that puts Wagram or Borodino into eclipse:



From June 1 to June 7, Falkenheyn pounds the Entente positions as Joffre attempts to firmly seal off the forested highways. The Germans hold on - barely - as 64,000 men fall on both sides. 

The battle reaches a fever pitch on the 8th and 9th, as Joffre launches an all-out effort to cut the final German escape routes and Falkenheyn's men fight with the savagery of despair. The Germans fling in their final reserves as their men are chewed to mulch by French artillery, but for 3 more days they hold:


Note that these are marked as "defeats" for me since I'm in the offensive stance and the Germans are defensive, and no territory changes hands. Regardless, in an offensive battle Joffre inflicts 25,000 more losses than he suffers, and while Falkenheyn temporarily held the door open, as the French offensive continues his position collapses. 

On the 10th, Joffre breaks through:



The final Hun bastions are overrun and Falkenheyn's right wing is broken - French corps jubilantly photograph themselves on the Dutch border, while several hundred thousand Germans are driven back towards the plain of Liege. Abandoning the effort to fight their way past the French blockades, the Germans are forced to swiftly fall back and defend Liege itself, as on the far side of the city the small German rear guard comes under intense pressure from pursuing Entente armies - French & Belgian forces closing up:


 

 
It's mere skirmishing compared to the bloodbath in the woods to the east, but Falkenheyn is forced to divert two entire corps to prevent his rear collapsing. By June 13, rapidly moving Entente forces have captured the entirety of the German 20th division and virtually wiped out the XII and XXIX Corps, which were intact at the start of the month. 

By June 15, the Entente armies are in a ring around Liege, where 3 full German corps have been trapped:

 

Total casualties from the battle are 176,000 Frenchmen and Belgians against 206,000 Germans, plus over 10,000 Huns taken prisoner in the rout to Liege and an unknown number more casualties inflicted in pursuit. National morale rises by five points - once for the breakthrough to the Dutch border, then two points apiece for the 'small' battles of Liege as we began to shatter the hollowed-out German formations. 5 national morale points is incredible in this game - that's fully 2.5 more months of war weariness that we'll be able to endure compared with the Central Powers. 



Note the 5 total morale gained - 1 from Malmedy and 2 each from the 2 'small' battles at Liege, presumably because German formations are disintegrating at that point. You can also see - spoilers - that I routed the enemy at Luxembourg as well and overran that place.

Malmedy isn't all the fighting on the Western Front in the first half of June, however. On June 7, 1915, in an effort to take pressure off the growing disaster in Belgium and to probe for weak points in the French line, Crown Prince Wilhelm finally leads his men forward from Metz, where they've been cooling their heels since last August, and punches through light French resistance to St. Mihiel and the outskirts of Verdun:

 

5th Cavalry division and the mostly-militia XXXVIII Corps take the brunt of the German offensive and large dent is plastered into French lines, but no great harm is done.

As Falkenheyn collapses back into Liege, relieving German forces (note the IV Corps showing up in this battle report - it was also present at the first round of Malmedy) are shoved back on the far side of the forest through Luxembourg:


de Castelnau's 2nd Armee takes far more casualties than it inflicts as his men storm forward under intense German fire, but by June 15 Luxembourg city has fallen (technically the first capital on either side to fall) and the gap between the Germans and Liege is very wide. 

Overall the situation on the Western Front as of 15 June, 1915:




In the center, Cronprinz Wilhelm has pushed to St. Mihiel, with only fortress units in front of him at Verdun. To the south are my assembling reserves, a full army of 8-10 corps, but with no overall commander to coordinate them. In the north, Falkenheyn's OKH is cut off at Liege, but the German 1st and 4th Armees are assembled at Aachen and I can expect them to mount a relief expedition. Otherwise the line runs south through Luxembourg to the German border and thence, apart from Wilhelm's salient, all the way to Switzerland. 

Elsewhere, Africa is clear of the enemy:

 
No final battle, so I can only assume the Ost Afrika Army finally disintegrated from lack of supply. I don't THINK he shoudl be undetected with me owning all the ground, but I have garrisons to be certain. 

The Eastern Front has seen Russian gains:


The Tsar's Galician offensive has overrun Przesmysl and Lemberg, the two main fortresses in the area, and Russian vanguards are on the far side of the Carpathians! He's just a few short provinces from Budapest itself - he could drive that far by the end of summer, if the Austrians allow him. All of this while Germany also has to deal with the debacle in Belgium. However, Romania will enter the war by August, and that will create a large threat on the Russian's left flank. Rumania has an old army with little artillery, but if left alone can be quite a nuisance. 

The best news of all, though, is the blockade:


Level 3! That means German Rebel alignment is now increasing by roughly 1.25 a turn, as it ticks up naturally over time - so he's gaining it 25% faster than I am. In 5 months, the blockade should tick up to level 4, at which point he's gaining 1.6 a turn, and then around April 1916 it should hit level five, which is 1.9 alignment a turn - just as the USA is joining the war. So within a year we should see the Central Powers beginning ot enter a death spiral if I can maintain the blockade and the frontline. By September 1916 the blockade will hit level 6, and then the Centrals have a 95% chance to gain 2 rebel alignment per turn - nearly 3 times the rate of the western powers. 

Current strategy on the Western Front now is to consolidate our gains, finish off the garrison of Liege, destroy or drive back the St. Mihiel salient, and go over to the defensive. I don't foresee much prospect of a successful grand offensive on this front, at least not without committing the BEF and France in full measure, and I don't think I'm ready for that. I need more artillery, more training, and more men, and any offensive will be bloody regardless. With time on my side, Germany has to make something happen, not me.

So, my orders:


We begin to transfer armies to either side of St. Mihiel, where I will launch counterattacks on the German flanks if Wilhelm tries to push towards Verdun. The BEF's final two armies, 2nd and 4th armies, will be lifted via sea soon towards its Middle Eastern staging grounds. 



In Egypt, I have 3 British armies already in theater, with 3 more en route - 1st, 2nd, and 4th, plus most of the African forces as well. I intend to hold a defensive along the Suez Canal (that railroad isn't buildable until 1916)...



While my armies tank the hits from the sea mines and land in Antioch, pushing inland as rapidly as possible to seize Aleppo and cut the railway. That isolates all of the Ottoman Empire south of Turkey, and opens the door for the Arabs to revolt. I might cut off Ottoman forces in Syria and Palestine, and can drive either into the Caucasus to link up with the Russians or try to push through Turkey in an effort to knock the Sultan out of the war. 

Objectives:


The Centrals lost 314,000 men in a cataclysmic month. We lost 302,000, the Russians 12,000. There's little fighting in the East, it seems, while the West is a vortex. We took 15,000 prisoners (total 40,000 so far) and our morale climbed by 5 points! The Centrals lost 2 points of morale and the Russians 1. 

The war might end before 1917 at this rate? Here's hoping!

[Cyneheard]

Question - how likely is it that Russia runs into stability issues? They're not losing their war, so I would think the answer is no, but that seems like the one open question, since your wars are clearly going a fair bit better than the RL timeline.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Question - how likely is it that Russia runs into stability issues? They're not losing their war, so I would think the answer is no, but that seems like the one open question, since your wars are clearly going a fair bit better than the RL timeline.

For the Eastern Entente, the magic number to watch is their National Morale - it falls by 1 point each turn for all the powers in the war as the war drags on and more husbands, fathers, and sons are killed, but Russia especially has problems once their NM gets low. Once it hits 75, Tsar Nicholas will personally assume command of all Russian armies. This temporarily boosts their NM, but with Nicholas at the front, the domestic situation in St. Petersburg starts to spiral out of control and Russia will gain Rebel Alignment faster than any other power. 

Once Russia hits 70% Rebel Alignment (for all other powers, 80%), it begins to spiral into revolution, and every turn a d100 is rolled and compared to their rebel alignment to determine if they stay in the war (1% chance for each % point above 70/80 rebel alignment). If they stay in, the alignment ticks higher and the die is rolled again next turn. So, for example, once rebel alignment is at 100%, each turn Russia has a 30% and all other powers 20% chance to collapse entirely and sue for peace. So you can survive for 1.5 - 2.5 months maximum at 100% alignment.