Chevalier Plays AGEOD Let's Play/AAR

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

July 1915 - All Quiet on the - no, I can’t say it

After the titanic clashes through the spring, summer settles over a comparatively calm Western Front and the war politely pauses while the Tsar took a 2-week trip to his dacha:




Interestingly (to me), the powerful German force at Aachen - von Kluk’s I. Armee and von Wuttermberg’s IV. Armee, plus at least two more corps - does not attack the Ardennes to attempt to relieve Liege, as I thought. Instead, it seems von Falkenheyn and all of OKH have been left to wither on the vine, as I tighten up the noose.

Indeed, the only fighting anywhere along the front (besides the usual shelling and war of raids and patrols in no-man’s land that makes life hell on the boys) is above it. Starting this spring, reconnaissance flights from both sides have increasingly clashed, and now every turn brings reports of aerial clashes all along the front. Regrettably, we cannot report much success here - the Germans get the upper hand over us more often than not. That gives Germany a detection bonus and, later, the ability to bomb to damage our cohesion a bit.

At St. Mihiel, the German force withdraws back to Metz - a feint? A probe? The rest of the front sees no movement and in fact, intelligence reports several new gaps in the German lines, notably the forest of Eifel between Aachen and III. Armee at Trier has no detected enemy presence.


I don’t immediately lunge in, as I’m still reorganizing, resupplying, reinforcing, and replenishing from the exhausting Battle of Malmedy, nor am I certain yet how the gap could be exploited - we’d run into the Rhine fairly rapidly and there’s no chance of completely isolating I, IV, or III Armees, although I could turn their flanks as part of a larger effort.

So, it’s a quiet turn. In Belgium, the fighting has seen enough commanders promoted that I organize two new armies - Tenth Armee, which will go to Nancy to fill up on corps, and First Belgian Army, where I stuff all my Belgian recruits:


The armored car division has fought with distinction on the Western Front through the autumn and spring battles, you may have noticed the armored car icons in several of the loss reports previously. Irritatingly, King Albert is a 3-star commander himself and ought to be able to command this formation independently, but I have no Belgian general headquarters, only a French and a British, so he’s forced to accept a French liaison officer - which is one less army I can deploy despite having the nominal command for it.

Still, these 70,000 men are for the first time their own army, and while Sixth Army rests for a moment it will take over the duties of besieging Liege. Later on I’ll place it into line in a quiet sector, perhaps the woody Ardennes?

Otherwise the Western Front just sees reorganization this turn. I have ten armies I can put into line now (1-7th, 9th & 10th French Armees, 1st Belgian), and 1 in reserve (8th, the “depot army” I’ve set up at Nancy to form my recruiting divisions and artillery batteries into corps before being sent into line), plus dozens of loose corps that hold quieter areas. I plan the simple enough plan of lining First Armee at the Dutch border and then on down the line to Switzerland (the front is only 10 provinces wide!) UNLESS I opt for an attack on my right flank - trying to punch through the Vosges hills towards the Rhine. I still don’t see the long-term potential for such an attack, nor do I like the terrain, but if Germany holds his own right too heavily and I can’t attack towards the Ruhr then I may try for opportunistic gains here anyway (as opposed to standing entirely on the defensive).

The Western Front as a result:
Left wing (Holland to Metz):




Right wing (Metz to Switzerland):



The Germans have I and IV Armees at Aachen as noted on their extreme right, III Armee at Trier, V Armee and numerous corps at Metz, Rupprecht Armee at Morhange east of Metz, and VII Armee at Mulhouse holding their extreme left. In between are numerous small corps. II Armee hasn’t been spotted since cutting its way out of Belgium and is probably re-fitting near the Rhine, VI Armee hasn’t been located. It might be Rupprecht’s army at Morhange - the location and strength are about right, he may have just renamed it.

I am bringing more and more artillery to the front, and am training fighter squadrons behind the lines. Hopefully by the end of summer we can successfully contest the air. Otherwise I need a long operational pause to fill the significant gaps in my French ranks.

But I’m not going to sit quiet all summer. In Egypt I have gathered all but two of my British armies:


First, Third, and soon Fifth Armies are formed either from BEF troops redeployed from France or from ANZACs, South Africans, and Indians gathering after the African campaign concluded. As noted, unattached corps will be designated Sixth Army and will hold the line of the Suez into 1916 (when the Sinai railway becomes available to build). The other 5 armies will be transported - in probably two sea-lifts - to Antioch.



There is the theater of war. I don’t fear Ottoman Armies much - five armies is more than the Ottomans have ever mustered, and they have the Russians invading in the Caucasus - but I am worried about losses to sea mines and in attempting to supply five armies through the port. I’m not good enough with the game engine to know quite how much supply flows through a given port level, and I might be overstretching myself here. I hope, worst case, to be able to support 1 army there and withdraw the other 4 for landings elsewhere. Best case, I can manage it and I cut off all of Syria, Palestine, and Arabia, and can link up with troops pushing either from Mesopotamia (I’d need to organize this expedition) or with the Tsar in Armenia.

The Russians have launched their Caucasus offensive, and the desperate Turks outrage the world:


Sadly, this 5% alignment boost comes too late for Romania, which declares war on Russia this turn and will actively enter the war by August. Italy and the United States, though, disgusted, are both leaning Entente at 66 or 60%:




66% Italy means I have a ⅔ chance each turn of ticking it another point in my favor, so in about 10 months we should have Italy in the war - possibly in time for hte spring campaign in 1916? That will help tighten the blockade and further stretch Centrals resources, though don’t expect miracles. The USA ticks 1% a turn, so we’re looking at 40 turns or 20 months maximum - so by the end of 1916. HOWEVER, I can also deploy my major diplomat to the USA once Italy joins, and that will add a further 1% each turn, so hopefully we can have the US enter by the fall campaign of 1916, or just over a year. Optimism!

Objectives screen:


My naval redeployment has lowered my power, I hope, but 60% naval margin is lower than I like to see. On land, 14 Centrals face 10 Western and 8 Eastern, so about a 1.3 margin of superiority, favorably comparing to our 1.1 loss ratio. I’d say the Entente is winning so far.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Late July, 1915: Tightening the Noose

The first half of July passes quietly over most of the front. In Belgium and France, the French armies are resting and reorganizing after the massive exertions of the spring. In Egypt, British armies are organizing and moving to their embarkation points, with my intention being to land in Syria before September. And the Central Powers oddly sit quiet - no major offensives still on my front, the same six armies are visible, no corps plug the gap in the Eifel forest, etc. So it’s mostly administrativa, with the exception of Belgium leading assaults against Liege, the last holdout of Central forces on Entente soil.





Casualties are even, encouraging enough when storming a defended fortress, but it gets worse - Falkenheyn’s army collapses as the Belgians move from fort to fort, as entire units dissolve, surrender, or are consolidated. By July 15, only a shattered remnant (2 hits) of X Corps is left clinging to the smoking rubble of Liege. General de Pau calls a temporary halt to rest his men before preparing a final attack later in the month.

Interestingly, we report 10,000 prisoners as well - even though Falkenheyn only had 25000 men in his entire army! Maybe it’s counting a few straggling detachments or something? Regardless, the news that the Chief of the entire German Army on either front is cornered like a rat in a besieged fortress lifts morale across the Entente, and we gain 2 national morale! The Russians must win a smashing victory somewhere, too, since their morale is at 90. The Centrals are down to 80 National Morale, meaning their troops are maxed out at 80% cohesion to our 89% and 90%.

I fire JFC Fuller’s event and gain 75 points towards unlocking tanks:


Tanks are units I can build, once unlocked, that will have high mobility (higher than infantry but lower than cavalry) and fairly high fire, shock (assault), and defense values, in theory letting them close the range during the Fire phase of battles and plop their high assault into enemy formations. I’m not sure how effective they are with AGEOD’s engine, since I’ve never used them, but we’ll find out in 1916.

Note the message bar here:


Rumania’s declaration of war, like the Ottomans, has pissed off the other Balkan powers. Bulgaria is much less favorable towards the Centrals now and our spies in Sofia report that the Entente-supporting factions actually have a slight edge in Cabinet debates now! (57% to 43% Centrals). That means our diplomats will be more effective, and there’s a chance Bulgaria mighte eventually tumble down to the side of the Entente. That will give us a secure base to attack Constantinople itself, bring support to Russia via the Black Sea, and shore up Serbia while threatening Rumania. At 57%, though, they probably won’t be joining before 1916 at the earliest. Greece, also, is offended and shifts 5% our way. Italy is up to 70/30 - moving 2 points every 3 turns, so about 20 turns or 10 months until I bring Italy in, early 1916.

So good news all around. 1915 has been a very sunny year for the Allies since the disappointments in the fall of 1914. The only downside has been continued Centrals dominance of the air, as I lose 50 planes but only claim about 15 CP planes over the two week period.

Belgian half of the front:


No planned offensives here while I bring up fresh artillery formations, rest my tired units, and reorganize my armies. Eifel is still unoccupied and might be a window to outflank either I and IV Armees in the north or III Armee in the south at Trier. However, there’s no rail link there so I might be thrusting my head into a noose if I attack there.


French half of the front:


The Moselle and the Vosges anchor this part of the front, which has been relatively quiet all war. We’re filtering in more armies, and as noted now deploy 10 against 7 German armies. The southern part of the German line, north of VII Armee on the Swiss border, is held by only a few corps. I could attack here, but after bloody battles in the hills I’d only arrive at tough fortresses and the Rhine beyond that. BUT if I could turn the flank of VI Armee near Saarbrucken, I could potentially try to strike north over the plains of Lorraine towards similar armies coming out of the Eifel and striking south…That would encircle Trier, Thionville, and Metz, with nearly 4 German armies (III, V, and VI plus loose corps) in the pocket. It’s a massive undertaking, but even a failure would pin down German troops and might cause him to evacuate back towards the Rhineland.

In Egypt, everything is shifting towards Alexandria as my shipping is nearly all concentrated and my armies are all organized:


We’ll spend the last half of July getting organized, and then depart in August for a landing near 1 September.

Objectives:


Centrals lost 150,000 men, the Russians lost 130,000. I can account for 20,000 at Liege, so the remainder must have been on the wrong end of a fairly titanic clash in the East, one to rival the battles of Antwerp or Malmedy in the West.

Russian morale is up 3 points, Centrals down 3 points, so they must have suffered a defeat on a similar scale, too! I’ll pester the Tsar for news.

[Brian Shanahan]

How goes the war?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Waiting on the Centrals to process the turn, still, basically. So overall status quo - the French and Belgians are defending along the pre-war border, with no changes of territory either way (but a million casualties on both sides to get there after a year's campaigning), the British are assembling a massive sledgehammer in Egypt to drop on the Ottomans at the beginning of autumn. Russia and Serbia are holding strong and have even pushed over the Carpathians towards Hungary, but Rumania has joined the Centrals and there is no end in sight.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Three weeks have passed since the Centrals last played their turn. I think their spirit might be broken?

Bummer if we lose the MP game, but I'll port the save into SP if I have to. We'll sit out the holidays and see in January what comes of this.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

There we go.

Late July 1915: The First Great Furball

Well, I certainly didn't expect that! After three weeks of waiting, the German player finally runs the turn, and the results startle me. 

I mentioned at the end of June that the Germans were starting to shoot down my reconnaissance flights over the front, so I had begun developing new fighter squadrons to counter this. I moved the first three into place behind the front later in the month - 1e Squadron at Bastogne, to support First & Second Armees, 2e squadron a bit to the south at Luxembourg to support Third & Fourth Armees, and 3e squadron at Longwy over the central portion of the front. 4th and 5th squadrons were still training but would cover the quieter Vosges front south of St. Mihiel when available. Well, when I opened the turn, this is the result of my movements:



Dozens - over 25 - of messages of small skirmishes to full blown aerial battles as the new French fighter squadrons went into action. It takes a solid 10 minutes just to page through the battle reports, and I have to make a spreadsheet - here I lost 10 fighters and shot down none, there I lost none and claimed 15, there honors were even - just to sort through the results. 

The final tally is that in the last two weeks of July, 1915, 154 French planes - fighters and reconnaissance planes - are lost, but claim 222 Germans shot down in reply. Germany had greater numbers in the spring, but I think the new fighters are an edge in quality, leading to the lopsided results. Still, I have fully 82 fighter hits to replace on the screen:


Each hit represents several planes lost or damaged from my squadrons, so we're going to be refitting from this for a while. In general, one replacement chit will repair about 10 hits on the screen, so I strive for that ratio when purchasing. Replacement hten happens in the supply phase or on depots for whole elements needing replacement, and I'll endeavor to have each squadron parked on a depot. My goal is to leverage the Western Allies' superior income in gold and war supplies to achieve technological supremacy over the front as the war continues.

The only ground action is the final surrender of Liege, where Falkenheyn, formerly the commander of army groups, now surrenders his platoon-sized command:



That officially cleanses all Allied soil of Centrals military presence, and might even dent the German high command system - not sure exactly how it works. In Rise of Prussia and Wars of Napoleon, generals can be killed or wounded (once I lost Marshal Davout in the opening turnso f the game, in a random cavalry skirmish that caused no casualties on either side! I restarted that game because fuck that), but captured? I have no idea, nor do I know what becomes of an army if the CiC is captured or killed. Does it disband? That'd be great news for me, if so, until Germany gets someone else into high command.

Situation on the northern half of the front as of August 1:


That mess of cards is a mass of armies, corps, and supporting units shuffling around as I attempt to regroup this portion of the front with only French and Belgian units. It's chaotic but the general picture is clear, I think. No major offensive moves planned and every frontline province has a full army of 4 or more corps, plus 2 more corps in immediate reserve, and Joffre's General Headquarters at Bastogne near the left center of my line. 

On the German side, II. Armee came up and filled in the gap in the Eifel, confirming my decision not to attack there - would have provoked a bloody meeting engagement. So, Germany has I & IV Armees at Aachen on his extreme right, then II Armee in the Eifel, III Armee at Trier, V Armee at Metz, VI Armee suspected near the Vosges, and VII Armee at Morhenge, mirroring my own setup with slightly fewer armies. 

Southern half:


More thinly held, but fresh recruits filter in every day to the great depot at Nancy to be organized into corps and armies, and now that Belgium is sorted out the freshly-released armies from that front are entraining here to take up their positions. I need another wave of infantry soon, as I've actually managed to get everyone sorted out!

Egypt:


The units here are sorted out into their respective armies now, having assembled from fully 5 continents as Indians, Canadians, Boers, Scots, Irish, ANZACs and Africans all jostle around into the various armies. The Africans and Indians will defend the line of the Suez, while my Commonwealth troops will be the tip of the spear into Syria soon. 

At sea, no major news - all major enemy fleet locations are monitored, I rotate my patrolling submarines, send bits of the blockade squadrons back for rest and replenishment, and watch my many transports make their ways around the world.

Objectives:


50,000 Germans and 42,000 Russians fell on the Eastern front in the last two weeks - I might need to launch an offensive soon to tie down Central reserves. My national morale fell 3 (mostly from printing new cash), Centrals rose 5 somehow? Russians lost the usual 1 from war weariness. An event may have buoyed the Central morale, but that usually comes with costs...Hm. 

Sorry for the dull turns lately - the great offensives of spring have largely petered out and I need time to get organized for the next wave of attacks. That probably won't come in Europe, as the front is stoutly held.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Early August 1915

I apologize in advance - a brief update with no pictures, it's finals week at school and I've got a bit of grading on my plate. Shouldn't be spending so much time writing about pointless multiplayer games on the Internet, but I find it calming so here I am. Anyway, major points:

1)Western front - no changes in the frontline or in troop formations, as far as I can see, so kindly refer to the late July posts for the situation there. The war in the air continued hot, as we lost (per my spreadsheet) 142 planes but claimed 244 Germans. The majority of losses on both sides have been recon planes.

In To End All Wars, you can build 3 types of airplane squadrons: recon, then later fighters unlock, and finally bombers unlock. Squadrons are controlled via their bases, which is all you can actually order around, then the base will auto-fly missions up to a certain radius (3 provinces, I'm told), so you want to position your bases such that they can do their jobs without being overrun by a German cavalry division, which ruins everyone's day (except the cavalry's). 

Only two missions are run - recon planes autofly recon missions, bombers will auto-fly bombardment missions IF a land battle occurs in their radius. Fighters will only attempt to intercept the other two missions - not sure if supporting fighters will then join in to defend the recons or the bombers, manual is unclear. Actually, wait, it is, escort missions are a thing. Okay, so we have bases, which hold squadrons, which autofly missions based on aircraft type.

Recon planes add 1 or 2 points of detection to the region they fly over, if successful. That lifts FOW, lets you accurately identify enemy formations and even enemy strength points (the difference between, say, seeing I. Armee with 3 Korps and identified supporting units, with 32/35 hits present, and just seeing "Leader/Cavalry/Cavalry/Wagons" present). Bombing runs damage enemy cohesion prior to the assault phase of combat, giving you a small edge in winning the battle.

The manual is unclear on how exactly air battles are resolved, but claims that aircraft initiative is much more important than firepower, and experience trumps everything. Air to air combat is a series of 1 on 1 duels, with each aircraft having a small chance ot hit, while surplus planes only provide a bonus hit chance - quality matters more than quantity.

So, from this I think my new generation fighters are probably better than their German counterparts, at least the recon planes. I'm not sure how many German losses have been reconnaissance craft vs fighters, because I didn't think to write that down and it's not immediately obvious in the battle results screen. Hopefully the ongoing disparity in losses - 296 Entente planes shot down vs 466 Germans in only a single month - will let me build up an experienced corps of ace pilots and ensure air superiority for the remainder of the conflict.

2. Operation Lionheart (the BEF landings in Syria).

A total shambles. Enemy sea mines do more than inflict hits on ships, which I obviously expected - they also reduce the landing force's cohesion to 0! An entire army is basically helpless on the beach in Antioch and failed even to capture the port against the tiny garrison. I know the Turks have massive armies in the Caucausus per reports from the Tsar, so can expect instant retaliation via railroad. 

I am canceling the follow up landings, pulling the men abck to their transports, and diverting the second and third waves to Smyrna, which has no mines guarding it. Odds of getting bogged down in mountain warfare in central Anatolia are much greater, but I need to divert troops from the Tsar so we'll try it and see what we can accomplish. Shame about losing the enveloping move on the Levant and Arabia, though. 

Cant' do a ground offensive here until 1916, which is when the Suez - Gaza railroad is able to be built. Prior to that, my armies would wither away in the supply deserts of Sinai.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

TEAW: Early September

All remains quiet on the battlefronts. The German High Seas fleet sallies at the blockade, but both fleets disengage without exchanging fire and the blockade remains in place. The Western Front sees more furious air battles, but the Germans contest the skies less and less as we gain the upper hand:



By now, the French & Belgian armies and even a Portuguese corps are firmly dug in along the German border from the Netherlands all the way to Switzerland, with neither side risking a bloody assault. The Tsar is making good progress and diplomatically the situation is favorable (US at 65% entry, Italy at 77%), while the blockade continues to wear away, so in essence this is a siege of all of Germany, and I've no inclination to mount an assault yet. The first year of the war (from August 1914 to August 1915) was bloody enough with the invasion and liberation of Belgium, so future gains will have to happen on other fronts.



Speaking of: The BEF is ashore in Anatolia, as 4 full armies descend on the poorly defended port of Smyrna. I have a blockade of hte port established but I must storm it in order to enable my troops to be supplied, and all my generals are inactive! Uh oh. I have a few weeks before supply really starts to pinch, though, and I want to spread out up and down the coast to secure more ports and clear the mines, opening a full third front in this theater and sucking in Central reinforcements. But no shooting, yet, as the Ottoman armies are engaged in the Caucasus. 



CP losses are up to 1.9 million, against 1.2 Western and .75 Eastern losses - essentially a 1:1 exchange ratio. Power differential is down to 1.2:1 against us, which means with the Russians we outnumber the Centrals almost 3 to 2 overall. Naval strength holds steady at 2:1. Centrals national morale is down to 77, compared to our 86 and the Russian's 93! 

I note the overall decline in the other two - they've been battling in East Prussia, Poland, and Galicia all summer, while we've been redeploying after the spring battles in Belgium. I want to do more to support the Tsar, but I'm not sure what I CAN do more. Short of going in at Gallipoli, this seems to be the only place I can really land along the entire shoreline of Europe - the North Sea & Baltic are out due to naval mines and the High Seas Fleet remaining undefeated, Austria has naval mines all along its short shoreline, and most of the Levant is mined or a supply desert. So the only place I can make a dent with the English troops (most are actually Indian, South African, and Anzac) is here in Smyrna and hope to push inland to actual objectives. Meanwhile the French army probably slightly outnumbers the German army in the West at this point, but I'd risk that superiority with an attack.

Still, the best policy will probably be a concentrated offensive with all 10 armies somewhere in the West - whether that's on the left (Aachen - Trier area), the center (Metz), or the right (along hte Swiss border) I'll need to judge, but I have more preparations to make first.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Late September, 1915

Autumn begins to close in on the Western Front, still with no major actions on either side. The French Army has rested and reorganized since the spring battles in Belgium, and the BEF spent the summer redeploying to the Eastern Mediterranean. I am beginning to gather resources for a major push, but I expect it will come in spring 1916. 



Germany has made almost no alterations on this front since closing the gap in the forests in June. I have finished redistributing my forces and about fully brought up the Belgian Army to strength. There's no obvious weak points to push, but as I study the position I think there ARE vulnerabilities to exploit if I'm willing to spend blood, and increasingly it looks like the overall situation calls for it. 



The active front for me at the moment is Anatolia. I have fully five armies ashore, with a 6th to follow in a few weeks, and a seventh holding the line in Egypt. Basically the entire British Empire has put its resources into knocking out the Ottomans. 

So far I haven't seen a bit of Ottoman opposition - I may have caught him off guard with most of his garrisons in the Caucasus and the Levant. Making lemons of lemonade (I WANTED to land in Syria and cut the railroad, but sea mines - WHICH ARE NOWHERE DESCRIBED IN THE MANUAL - foiled me), I detail two armies to finish securing Smyrna as a supply port, 1 to push north to Balikeser, an important rail junction on the way to Constantinople, and one to secure my right by taking position on the Buyuk River. Kitchener himself will remain in the center and secure communications between the two. 

Operationally, I have no idea exactly how to proceed in this theater, I've never campaigned here before and didn't plan on landing here prior to a month ago. Two goals are clear: Smyrna is our essential short-term goal for a base of supply. Constantinople is the obvious long-term goal to knock the Ottos out of the war. But how to get from here to there? Do I spread out into corps to occupy more ground, or stay concentrated as armies? Right now I'm going to stay concentrated to avoid the risk of Ottomans piling on to me with the rails and knocking out an isolated detachment. I don't have enough cavalry or planes here for recon - most fighter construction ahs been on the western front, but I think I need at least 2-3 recon squadrons here, with at least 1-3 fighter squadrons to escort. That, plus landing some horse, will enable me to better scout and get a feel for the land. 

Otherwise, leaving two armies to defend Smyrna, the rest will press north towards Nicaea up the railroad. We want to cut the rails to the east if at all possible, isolating Constantinople from the rest of the empire, then mount an offensive towards the City itself. Move quick and seize as much territory as possible before the Ottomans return. Can Smyrna supply all these armies? I have NO idea since I don't know how supply throughput is calculated based on port size, but fingers crossed. 



It's time to be aggressive on all fronts because the Centrals are reeling. Their power is down to 1.1 of ours - functionally France, Britain, and Belgium equal all of Germany, Austria-Hungary, Rumania, and the Ottoman Empire right now. Bulgaria is leaning 58% Entente, Italy is above 75%, the US is nearly at 70%, so we have massive reinforcements incoming over the next year while the Centrals can only depend on Mexico (78%) joining. Their only real chance is to concentrate on Russia to knock them out, but even that will leave them on even terms with us - and the blockade undisturbed. So, I will move fast in Turkey to try and get the Ottos out or at least draw in massive Centrals reinforcements to save their ally. Meanwhile, France will build up heavy artillery and concentrate near Luxembourg. I plan an offensive in the spring of 1916 down the Mosel to the Rhine, splitting the German defense, and then I can swing north to cut off Aachen, or south to turn the flank of the defenders of Alsace, or even push further east to stretch the lines even further.

At this rate, I dare to think we might win the war before 1917.

[shallow_thought]

Late September, 1915


Operationally, I have no idea exactly how to proceed in this theater, I've never campaigned here before and didn't plan on landing here prior to a month ago.

Are you sure you're not letting your inner Churchill run a little wild?