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mjmd rolled the turn so looks like it was a warpeace. or a war in which a bunch of galleons diedon the first turn, then a peace offer? one can dream lol
well, it looks like i was half-right..... THAT war was phony. however
.....THIS war might be legit???
police state swap is looking like a tell for SOME kind of brewing confrontation. and they finished the kremlin, which is scary except for the fact that they aren't in any civics that allow for production hurrying, and they just used their second GA swap so have no way to get into one. so they probably built it for denial value which is actually pretty good news for us i think.
orgrel has me nervous though... it is PROBABLY just for factories but it could be a tell for a culture attempt, since they already have scimeth and would need to spread religions around to do that. i think it's getting a bit late for them to start something like that though, and frankly they are the favorite for a conventional win condition anyways without having to resort to such things.
anyways i sent ginger fish in response, in both the generic and 25-turn flavor, to at least reassure them that i don't plan to use our ongoing troop buildup offensively against them and am willing to be neutral in a coming war between them and india. i don't think mjmd is such a runaway (yet...?) that we should actively turn on them, though. i'm open to being convinced though, and i certainly see why the timing is fortuitous (after mjmd has dumped a ton of production into factories but before they have profited from it). i just don't think our position can handle the diplomatic blowback of attacking india if we are not in position to conquer them. and as much as i'd like to trust ginger's intentions here, an india war would give them a phenomenal chance to backstab us, which they still probably need to do at SOME point in order to win this game...
sigh. it could be a huge mistake not to take this chance as mjmd is starting to pull ahead of ginger and could conceivably run away with this, especially if they manage to stack mining inc with cereal mills as i am expecting and ginger gets shut out of the strong early corps. idk man, idk. if they invade superdeath or nauf we will obviously have no choice but to intervene..... they probably won't do that until they have massed infantry (or tanks?) good and proper though, and maybe by that point it will be too late for the rest of the world to beat them down. eh. in a close geopolitical call i'm inclined to err on the side of india as part of my still-standing "if i can't win, ginger must not win either" policy, but i'm interested to hear your takes as well
at the very least this offer strongly suggests to me that ginger WAS planning a surprise raze of some indian cities, and our intel might actually have tipped mjmd off at substantial benefit to their win probability..... here's hoping their gratitude for that ends up meaning something
sheesh, this isn't even 2/3 of the 3800 beaker cost of scimeth.... i do still feel that this is correct over saving for a GA though, we can wait on the GA for factory building or frantic wartime production. soooo bye bye monsieur pasteur, hello industrial era
never mind that every other player has been industrial for ten thousand years via steel tech 
anyways, india's rejudaiization means the culture-crush twins are yearning to revolt again. we actually almost had a disaster in hungary rush, i had to frantically shift around impi defenders from magnus and GGGA stacking to cover it and had EXACTLY enough units in range to zero out the flip odds. it had one indian revolt way back during the ginger war days, so we cannot leave it with positive odds for even a turn or we risk waking up one morning with one fewer city. CTR i believe is less urgent, thank goodness, since my sims show that a gifted city will not flip back to the gifter a second time (if these sims were wrong for some reason we are, of course, screwed, as we need our impis elsewhere for ginger deterrent)
ok, compare that screenshot to this one from 25 turns ago
in which time we have researched 6 techs (paper, printing press, replaceable parts, rifling, chemistry, and now sci meth), added around 500 to our net GNP, and are back up to #1 in power. is that good as far as economic turnarounds go?
edit: i thought of an alternative to optics research that sucks significantly less if we want warning against a ginger naval attack, btw - we could go for /physics/ instead. that's on the path to tanks so we do need it eventually, and it unlocks electricity research for +1 gold on all windmills, of which we have about ten million..... probably still better to push for assembly line first while ginger/mjmd still has a chance to get tanks before we have infantry, but maybe it actually is possible to get away with investing literally nothing into the naval tech line long-term..... aaaaand then after writing this i remembered physics requires astro anyways, lolllll. in that case i guess i'm probably down to do optics before the infantry push, by the time we hit AL our GNP should be strong enough that it won't represent the 3-turn delay it did on the bio beeline
anyways, if we don't do that, the next step after bio is probably the hilarious steam power tech. yall remember how waaaay back at the beginning of the game i was obsessed with making all our early cities levee-able....
we could also try corporation to take cereal mills, if it's still on the board (and contingent on the 50% shot at a great merchant in wakamotoharu). i don't think that's going to happen though, as mjmd has a saved merchant already and can found the corp pretty much whenever they feel like it.....
edit2: starting to think about offering defpacts to nauf and (especially) superdeath sometime in the near future, to hem in mjmd's options..... i think the most likely way for this game to end in the near future is for them to slam into and roll over one of them and a coalition of the rest of the world being unable to stop it (perhaps due to the ottomans stabbing us in the back at the worst possible time)
mjmd rolled the turn so looks like it was a warpeace. or a war in which a bunch of galleons diedon the first turn, then a peace offer? one can dream lol
well, it looks like i was half-right..... THAT war was phony. however
.....THIS war might be legit???
police state swap is looking like a tell for SOME kind of brewing confrontation. and they finished the kremlin, which is scary except for the fact that they aren't in any civics that allow for production hurrying, and they just used their second GA swap so have no way to get into one. so they probably built it for denial value which is actually pretty good news for us i think.
orgrel has me nervous though... it is PROBABLY just for factories but it could be a tell for a culture attempt, since they already have scimeth and would need to spread religions around to do that. i think it's getting a bit late for them to start something like that though, and frankly they are the favorite for a conventional win condition anyways without having to resort to such things.
anyways i sent ginger fish in response, in both the generic and 25-turn flavor, to at least reassure them that i don't plan to use our ongoing troop buildup offensively against them and am willing to be neutral in a coming war between them and india. i don't think mjmd is such a runaway (yet...?) that we should actively turn on them, though. i'm open to being convinced though, and i certainly see why the timing is fortuitous (after mjmd has dumped a ton of production into factories but before they have profited from it). i just don't think our position can handle the diplomatic blowback of attacking india if we are not in position to conquer them. and as much as i'd like to trust ginger's intentions here, an india war would give them a phenomenal chance to backstab us, which they still probably need to do at SOME point in order to win this game...
sigh. it could be a huge mistake not to take this chance as mjmd is starting to pull ahead of ginger and could conceivably run away with this, especially if they manage to stack mining inc with cereal mills as i am expecting and ginger gets shut out of the strong early corps. idk man, idk. if they invade superdeath or nauf we will obviously have no choice but to intervene..... they probably won't do that until they have massed infantry (or tanks?) good and proper though, and maybe by that point it will be too late for the rest of the world to beat them down. eh. in a close geopolitical call i'm inclined to err on the side of india as part of my still-standing "if i can't win, ginger must not win either" policy, but i'm interested to hear your takes as well
at the very least this offer strongly suggests to me that ginger WAS planning a surprise raze of some indian cities, and our intel might actually have tipped mjmd off at substantial benefit to their win probability..... here's hoping their gratitude for that ends up meaning something
sheesh, this isn't even 2/3 of the 3800 beaker cost of scimeth.... i do still feel that this is correct over saving for a GA though, we can wait on the GA for factory building or frantic wartime production. soooo bye bye monsieur pasteur, hello industrial era
never mind that every other player has been industrial for ten thousand years via steel tech anyways, india's rejudaiization means the culture-crush twins are yearning to revolt again. we actually almost had a disaster in hungary rush, i had to frantically shift around impi defenders from magnus and GGGA stacking to cover it and had EXACTLY enough units in range to zero out the flip odds. it had one indian revolt way back during the ginger war days, so we cannot leave it with positive odds for even a turn or we risk waking up one morning with one fewer city. CTR i believe is less urgent, thank goodness, since my sims show that a gifted city will not flip back to the gifter a second time (if these sims were wrong for some reason we are, of course, screwed, as we need our impis elsewhere for ginger deterrent)
ok, compare that screenshot to this one from 25 turns ago
in which time we have researched 6 techs (paper, printing press, replaceable parts, rifling, chemistry, and now sci meth), added around 500 to our net GNP, and are back up to #1 in power. is that good as far as economic turnarounds go?
edit: i thought of an alternative to optics research that sucks significantly less if we want warning against a ginger naval attack, btw - we could go for /physics/ instead. that's on the path to tanks so we do need it eventually, and it unlocks electricity research for +1 gold on all windmills, of which we have about ten million..... probably still better to push for assembly line first while ginger/mjmd still has a chance to get tanks before we have infantry, but maybe it actually is possible to get away with investing literally nothing into the naval tech line long-term..... aaaaand then after writing this i remembered physics requires astro anyways, lolllll. in that case i guess i'm probably down to do optics before the infantry push, by the time we hit AL our GNP should be strong enough that it won't represent the 3-turn delay it did on the bio beeline
anyways, if we don't do that, the next step after bio is probably the hilarious steam power tech. yall remember how waaaay back at the beginning of the game i was obsessed with making all our early cities levee-able....
we could also try corporation to take cereal mills, if it's still on the board (and contingent on the 50% shot at a great merchant in wakamotoharu). i don't think that's going to happen though, as mjmd has a saved merchant already and can found the corp pretty much whenever they feel like it.....
edit2: starting to think about offering defpacts to nauf and (especially) superdeath sometime in the near future, to hem in mjmd's options..... i think the most likely way for this game to end in the near future is for them to slam into and roll over one of them and a coalition of the rest of the world being unable to stop it (perhaps due to the ottomans stabbing us in the back at the worst possible time)
