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[SPOILERS] swance bitten, twice shy

us in 1 turn

282

still a HUGE amount of posting going on in the lurker thread..... at first i assumed it was everyone taking their turn to call me a feckless idiot and demand a concession, but now i'm not so sure.... i do not think everyone would be posting, some multiple times, about a position that has ubiquitous agreement and about which there is no doubt. but then what? don't tell me they actually have contrasting evaluations of the gamestate.....



oh.... well, that changes things. that heavily, heavily changes things in a nauf-stab-favoring way. 10 turns of enforced peace until t293 is an eternity and means india can't vulture territory from us, all they can do is attack our stacks as we try to move in. and we could even forestall that with a cow deal which you'd think india would be incentivized to take from this position. in a 1v1 with nauf, with complete control of the skies and seas (no combustion yet for america) and no prospect of indian intervention, i think we can easily devour nauf in less than 10 turns. that will take us to 70 cities and re-equalize the territorial question, and give us a path to domination through civac such that we could, in theory, outrace an indian culture win without even having to fight them. assuming everything goes perfectly on that front, of course...

if it's just a 2v1, this "coalition" is probably doomed. nauf might not think it matters what they do but with infantry drafting available, a good number of them already on the books, and just the sheer fact of them holding TERRITORY and tying down a front that mjmd has to commit to, i think it does. we need the rest of the continent united against india to beat them i think, and if nauf will not help, well, their land is going to have to frown we also haven't cowed them in quite some time now (last one lapsed on 276) and all our recent diplo has involved us joining their war with india, so if they are not at war with india i'm not sure i even consider it a stab - if someone says they'll join you in war in 7 turns, and then you peace out of that war, i kinda think all bets are off at that point, right...?

and of course the great artist is telling about how this might end



i THINK they are still far enough from culture that they can't just respond to us cowing by turning on the slider and win that way. 



even with the statue and reps, we have flushed our economy sufficiently far down the tubes with all the minincing that the capital has to run research for a turn to get radio tech in time.... still, it's just one city. every other city that matters can be on fighters, ready to overflow into bombers in furtherance of our hideous purpose (whichever that turns out to be.....)



indian megafleet moving forward too! :O and i spotted some transports moving west from former SD. so apparently the next move for india looks like an overseas invasion of civac from around the world, which juuuust might give us an opening to pull this off, assuming civac's rage is not so great at our defection to get them to launch a punitive attack on us while being conquered



nauf has logged in too.... ok, this i don't like. what am i supposed to do here? if i wanted to attack them next turn, i have ostensibly claimed the first half of the timer by logging in first, but if they log in WHILE i'm playing my turn it's a double-move to go before them next round and attack..... well, i guess it's not a disaster to have to play second in such a war but it would be annoying lol



thought of a really stupid idea.... it's worth 12 culture for the ankyra border war, and we could spread cereal here for some endless drafting action..... this one might be TOO stupid though lol (although it can draft like every 3 turns with cereal which is quite good!)



a tactical nuke has us in its sights at herring.... although, can it hit work ethic from there? it's 4 tiles away by euclidean distance, but not in terms of the distance by which air unit ranges are calculated, so it's a little unclear....? i'll have to sim ig. even if it can they actually lack the 2-movers to take it after just one nuke

SD peace deal ends next turn, and i think i have to redeclare..... can't let them snipe some of our shit with a commando group. but then we'd have to STAY at war with them bc the endpoint of a nauf attack is SD's last two cities...... bluhh

todo cows, sim tacnuke range

posting so that if anyone wants to BEG me not to switch targets they can do so. but i think this is it - one defection is enough that we can no longer beat india. but at the same time, i think peacing out with nauf was pretty meaningfully a mistake from india - now we have a window! with 22 more of our own cities we could match india even post-SD conquests coming online. and in the meantime their plan is what, an across-the-world invasion of the ottomans? it could work, for sure, but it's not like they're holding territory over there, and if america is ours and ottomans are a smoking ruin that we can resettle, i think we have a real shot of hitting the formal domination requirements 

of course if india won't cow us that calculus totally changes. but i think they probably should..... after all, it is literally true that if they don't, we will attack THEM instead. so uh.... if they don't want that, they'd better take it nod
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tac nuke range, so i think kirishima and work ethic are NOT in range of the ottoman tac nukes looking at them menacingly, since they are on the diagonal

sent mjmd my treasonous cows. sorry loves; 3v1 vs mjmd might have worked and my signaled willingness to join 2t from now was genuine. but 2v1.... as fun as it would be to die fighting side by side with our backstabbers, i don't think it's happening, not with the beating civac's military is taken and their lack of ICBM production (and unwillingness to respond to my asking them to nuke stuff.....). which means we have one desperate throw of the dice left, which is to make a deal with the dark lord (who has been a close ally all game, mind you....) and try to race them to domination. if that doesn't work, and we can't pull off a surprise, super-efficient conquest with commandos and a super one-sided difference in air and naval power.... well, that's it, we are going to lose and i'll concede and we can end this nod

btw if mjmd doesn't echo the cows, my plan is to warpeace them. if they reject that and remain at war with us.... well, then we're in the same 2v1 that was the original plan anyways lol

not sure what to do about civac. i don't really want to cow them as i think it'd be perceived as in super bad faith to do that now that my plans have changed. maybe i could cow them while also telling them a nauf attack is now my plan, but that won't be accepted and probably just gets them to warn nauf and attack us themselves. so maybe we just say nothing... our standing cow lapses in about 2 turns so the risk of a 2-front war is real, but if they do that it'd just be motivated by rage rather than any real goal i think. which is fair enough and might happen! but if it does we can just concede, we're in the desperation stage of this one anyways lol plus frankly, if we attack nauf and civac collapses in a 1v1 with india at the speed with which i expect, we probably need to fight them sooner than 10t from now anyways for vulturing purposes. that land area percentage aint going to inflate itself yknow
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a genlurker just told me over discord that the pop requirement for domination is equal to mjmd's pop percentage + 25%.... so if they have 37% or more of world pop (which is almost certain) they block anyone else from winning by domination

could someone please confirm if this is accurate?
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(September 27th, 2024, 05:15)ljubljana Wrote: a genlurker just told me over discord that the pop requirement for domination is equal to mjmd's pop percentage + 25%.... so if they have 37% or more of world pop (which is almost certain) they block anyone else from winning by domination

could someone please confirm if this is accurate?

From your own post:

(September 26th, 2024, 21:00)ljubljana Wrote:

I have no idea if the population requirement is dynamic, but the land requirement should be static. The 53% required pop for domination does line up with Mjmd's 28% + 25% though.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
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(September 27th, 2024, 05:52)Tarkeel Wrote: I have no idea if the population requirement is dynamic, but the land requirement should be static. The 53% required pop for domination does line up with Mjmd's 28% + 25% though.

yeah. this whole plan, including the cows i sent mjmd, were predicated on assuming it was static frown 53% we can easily get to just by having more land, even if we eat some number of nukes while mjmd tries to stop us. but if, as india's pop grows and the others' pop decreases, it's going to jump up into the 60s, we're pretty much doomed. maybe if we spam cereal and stop drafting, we can reach a point where.... not where we meet the requirement, but where mjmd can't do another kremlin mass-whip of ICBMs because if they do, THEN we will meet the requirement lol and indeed, that actually would be an application for bomb shelters in every city lmao
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another question for lurkers, this one a rules question. we voted on "don't be a dick" as far as teleport tricks are concerned. the question is this: SD has a bunch of troops in my territory via open borders, and i want to declare war on them this turn because our enforced peace is about to end and i don't trust them not to snipe something of importance from me with their commando grens. so they are gonna get teleported....somewhere.....and i haven't calculated it out so i have no idea where. is that "being a dick"? will it be "being a dick" if i then find where they teleported to and kill them, assuming i have units in range? if not, how should i go about declaring war on them? i could cancel OB first (in 2 turns) but they would still get teleported, possibly into the territory of mjmd who will then kill them....
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(September 27th, 2024, 13:58)ljubljana Wrote: another question for lurkers, this one a rules question. we voted on "don't be a dick" as far as teleport tricks are concerned. the question is this: SD has a bunch of troops in my territory via open borders, and i want to declare war on them this turn because our enforced peace is about to end and i don't trust them not to snipe something of importance from me with their commando grens. so they are gonna get teleported....somewhere.....and i haven't calculated it out so i have no idea where. is that "being a dick"? will it be "being a dick" if i then find where they teleported to and kill them, assuming i have units in range? if not, how should i go about declaring war on them? i could cancel OB first (in 2 turns) but they would still get teleported, possibly into the territory of mjmd who will then kill them....

Cancelling OB because you're going to war would be entirely reasonable and not dick-ish. Cancelling OB to speed up Player B's units on their way to Player C could be dick-ish.
Playing: PB74
Played: PB58 - PB59 - PB62 - PB66 - PB67
Dedlurked: PB56 (Amicalola) - PB72 (Greenline)
Maps: PB60 - PB61 - PB63 - PB68 - PB70 - PB73 - PB76

There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
Reply

(September 27th, 2024, 13:58)ljubljana Wrote: another question for lurkers, this one a rules question. we voted on "don't be a dick" as far as teleport tricks are concerned. the question is this: SD has a bunch of troops in my territory via open borders, and i want to declare war on them this turn because our enforced peace is about to end and i don't trust them not to snipe something of importance from me with their commando grens. so they are gonna get teleported....somewhere.....and i haven't calculated it out so i have no idea where. is that "being a dick"? will it be "being a dick" if i then find where they teleported to and kill them, assuming i have units in range? if not, how should i go about declaring war on them? i could cancel OB first (in 2 turns) but they would still get teleported, possibly into the territory of mjmd who will then kill them....

It's Superdeath, so you are fine whatever you do  lol
But on a serious note - I see nothing dickish about either option.
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cool ok, i'll probably just attack then, either this turn or next turn.... i don't really want to give them a window in which they can attack and try to wreak chaos by sniping my badly-needed combat workers or whatever.... and surely they will DoW us if we do declare on naufragar, so best to go for it now and get it over with

285

that is, assuming mjmd has cowed us to enable this whole plan. if not, i think we have to warpeace them, which will either get us a stronger guarantee of the 10t peace we prefer, or send us to war on the ottoman side with pretty much the same timing i was originally planning for. the thought is, i think, to use our reputation for passivity to our advantage here..... hopefully mjmd's perception is that we are pretty much just a green who can't really read the gamestate and got lucky this game with aggression timings and opponent misplays (which i'm not saying is necessarily incorrect, mind you lol) and that our cow offer is out of fear of their wrath now that they've peaced with one opponent and have moved the fleet out. it's probably obvious that my plan is to go after naufragar now, but hopefully they don't expect the speed with which i think we can make progress there..... we have diligently avoided military science research all game so as not to tip our hand, aaaaand i've been working on a few theories about paratrooper warfare that, if correct, could provide a significant accelerant



here's one of them.... i, just in time, realized that paratroopers can drop from forts in our territory but NOT in neutral territory which is a big problem right?? well.... not necessarily, but it means we need combat settlers pronto. i did not remember to bring any of these! but we have 1 more turn so we can have the cities closest to the front 1-turn a few of them instead of the planned bombers. and.... it turns out air units can't even rebase to forts in neutral territory which is REALLY really significant and means combat settlers are going to be absolutely mandatory, and in larger numbers than i really want to invest in..... so um, good thing i had that thought just now

but mjmd did not cow us.... their counteroffer?



a deal that would literally lose us the game on the spot if accepted lol friend, you disappoint me! how ignorant do yall think i am, am i expected to really not have been watching the culture numbers all this time? now, there is some sense in which accepting might have been interesting if i were REALLY confident we could get domination inside of 40 turns without fighting them.... but i am instead the opposite of that thanks to learning about the pop requirement; if we do pull this off, we almost certainly WILL need to fight them at the very end to bring their numbers down, so....

so it must be warpeace then. there can be no invasion of naufragar without a mechanical guarantee of indian neutrality, and if we can't do that, the next best outcome is to join civac in the doomed 2v1. 



this is a problem though.... DoWing india will actually hurt their invasion timing a bit by teleporting their ships outside of our borders. so that might hurt their feelings and lead to a rejection of peace.... well, nothing we can do about that, obviously.



there is another problem! mjmd has added 2 fast workers to this border, bringing them to a total of 3..... this means one of longship spam and chop overflow will die on the first turn of the war, with no way for us to prevent it. just rail the hills and send in the tanks - if we stack troops in the cities (and we do have bomb shelters there, at least) they will get wiped away by an ICBM. however, we still have to go for it - no other option at this point. if they choose to stay at war and wipe our cities off the map, we can probably call this thing

nauf also moved before us this turn (nothing i could do, turn rolled at 1 AM my time and they played at 5 AM) so they're gonna get to see us pick up military science before i can attack anyways. if they're on the ball and stack defenders in their cities properly, THEN we can probably call it too! turn order strikes again frown what an irritating mechanic....... of course if we were in a better position to begin with we could win THROUGH such a thing, but them's the breaks smile



since we're declaring war, i actually could snipe an mjmd carrier here with a bunch of jets on board. but i'm not going to, we want warPEACE remember. but anyways, protecting their carriers from snipes like this would actually mess up their naval deployment in the south significantly and might in fact be one of the stronger arguments for their taking the peace deal. pretty good ROI for the like 3 destroyers i have managed to put out along our south coast so far smile



well, nothing left but to go for it i guess. pillage the one road we can reach, draft out of all our exposed cities (might as well, right), and: "your head would look good on the end of a pole".... i promise to play out one (exactly one) turn of the resulting war if they don't accept peace, as it's at least conceivable that bombers plus the sudden appearance of 3 transports in the inland sea between us might change their mind

i also chose not to declare on SD as they have gathered their units into a big stack on the indian border, and it's actually not in range of anything with value to us no matter where it teleports (i think...??). that could change next turn, but if we do stay at war with india there's no harm in having SD absorb some of their tank shots instead. speaking of which SD declared on nauf this turn as well, so evidently we are not the only ones in a punitive mood nod

all things considered, the execution of this plan was very clumsy, and it's really unlikely to work. even if india takes peace i think the combination of our warpeacing them and researching milsci, plus the fact that they get to see that research since we moved after them in turn order ughhh, means we probably tipped off nauf, and while that's not the end of our ability to conquer them in theory, it would cost us enormously on the speed front. so most likely GG. see yall in the morning when we shall see each other, as in a mirror dimly nod

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ok, let's get this over with. expecting no peace, a couple burned cities in the south, maybe the capital nuked as well.....



and that's more or less what we got nod GG commando tank razed Ouch, VA captured, only one dead unit for india versus many for us. i guess we could play this out a bit further, but that was my last plan really and i don't have enough in me, nor do i think it's worth the RL time investment, to come up with another one. 3v1 vs mjmd could have worked i think, but without nauf's help and with no real angle to inflict damage on india, i don't see it happening. and, to be totally honest, i'd rather uninstall civ4 for a few months (to break my increasingly-problematic addiction to it....) and move on with my life than play out a 1% (10% would be different, but i don't think this worst-case geopolitical scenario is in that bucket anymore). nor can i justify continuing to waste the time of others when even i don't really WANT to be playing this game anymore

I CONCEDE TO MJMD

....is it over? if not, someone let me know and i'll log back in and play out the turn lol
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