158
Here is what I saw when I opened the save and decided to step away:
Yuri attack means the east is under quick threat. Less important than losing the cities, I'm going to need to keep the road open from west to east so my army can retreat from the capital to Poodle and beyond. Although with Yuri's lack of rifles, I may be able to take the stack head on. Surely keeping my knights around for that would be a smart play and increase my odds of safety.
But look at those weakly defended flanks. Commodore is pushing everything into his thrust, wary of me countering and wiping out his stack. So he's left his road network relatively unguarded. Last turn I moved my knights into position to retake Beagle, and with it still being so lightly guarded I debated a long time about sending in the knights vs using them against Yuri in the east.
Also notice that Dominoes is out of resistance: a culture bomb used to try and get some tiles. Sadly I've been disappointed in this fashion before. A culture bomb just isn't going to compete against the established culture within the core of a civilization.
I decided not to be passive:
C2 Formation Knight gets even odds against an unpromoted calvary. Naturally we lost, and did a little bit of damage, but just to put it at that annoying threshold where a C3 knight would go up against the calvary yet a C2 Formation would go against the wounded cannon. Promoted to Formation because I think my biggest threat is against cavalry being able to come into the area, and two victories later:
Oh yeah, that Great Artist bomb doesn't do anything against all my established culture. Here I have a lot of decisions to make. I sent my 2 keshiks & 1 knight to capture the EIGHT unguarded workers in the area, deleting them all. I only deleted the 1 keshik beside the city, because while I forgot to capture the garrison in Chihuahua (renamed to Four Card) it only had 2 cavalry and both of them wounded.
But then I noticed a number of opportunities. I absolutely caught Commodore off-guard here, and he did not seem to even anticipate this as a possibility. For starters,
that's a great artist 2 tiles south of Beagle (Omaha Hi Lo). We're definitely going to take that. I promoted the least-XP knight to sentry and sent him in:
Here's where I took a long think about what I wanted to accomplish. I know I said I wanted to keep as many cities and population alive for as long as possible, but I may not get another opportunity to strike a blow against Commodore. So while this is going to hurt my chances against Yuri in the east, I eventually decided to go for it: sending all the knights in range (plus the GG musket) to the tile 2NE of Roulette where we will threaten the miniscule stack there. In my favor: Commodore is not in a golden age and not in Nationalism or Slavery. I imagine he's going to send everything in the area to defend and I don't think that i have good odds of taking it (for instance, Dominoes is right there and probably has a decent garrison to shuffle over), but again: I think I have to take my shot now. I could have tried to retake Mutt - less chance for him to reinforce, but also closer to his main doomstack of 100+ units.
Here's how we ended up:
Final Tally for this turn: 1 knight & 1 keshik lost to kill 1 cavalry, 1 cannon, 8 workers, AND ONE FREAKING GREAT ARTIST BABY!
I evacuated the capital for Labrador. We will not slow-roll our retreat any longer: due to Yuri the need now is to race east to get to Poodle before his army does, and then try to evacuate to the islands. Yuri thankfully has not invested in his navy and so I will be best able to make a stand out there. His main force is weak on rifles and mostly knight + catapults, so we will have to see whether he slow plays this or tries to race Commodore for spoils. I'm sure he has been talking to Commodore as much as Thoth and they have some tacit arrangement. Perhaps this is even why Commodore made such a mistake in not pushing for Golden Retriever in the first place: he was only looking at getting the economically rich cities of Weimaraner and Labrador and thought to leave the dregs for Yuri. Well, I was able to capitalize on that.
A final note on Thoth:
I realized I could not stop him from landing on the island. Originally I was going to move all my privateers to the inlet 3N of Dobermann and dare him to either land now or retreat his navy. But he has an easy answer to that: he just retreats into The Black Road. From there he can shuttle his invasion forces back and forth and his fleet would never be at risk. Honestly, I don't know why he isn't doing that now. So Basset Island is a lost cause. I did drop off the catapults I had loaded up, and we will try to make a stand for as long as possible, but the purpose of this island is to now whip out as many privateers as possible. Which means I need to keep my fleet whole and not risk it.
So we are giving up on Basset. The galleys and caravels will try to escape to the east and help evacuate the main army to the Beak Islands (we're going with the bird taking flight analogy still - but I could just as easily call them "Crap Islands"). It will be dicey to figure out how long I can keep my navy in the west - but we'll try to get as much out of it as possible.
Still have some ideas for holding out in the east. We're going to have to take Yuri's island holdings to have a chance: which means I've started building trebuchets.
Finally it was nice to have some fun in a turn.