[SPOILERS] scooter Expands the Empire Across the Sea

[scooter]

Oh, I did opt to delay the GA by 3T by firing the Scientists in Unta. I'd rather the safer play and think the discussion was good.

I agree with most of what Zed has to say.

Thinking about it from SD's perspective: IIRC he has Galleons and XBows (but not Longbows) -- in principle he could defend ok against Yuris with Galleons and Samurai.
- He could throw everything against us and let Yuris grab stuff for cheap, just to spite the player in the lead who burned a couple of his cities and try to make more of a game (for others) out of it. As long as we go cautiously and have enough Frigates he can't really hurt us, but he could make our progress much slower than Yuris's if he does. This is the sensible thing only if he wants to be out of the game ASAP. Usually SD likes to try to hold on, though.
- He could defend reasonably well against Yuris and just try to protect his core against us. This is the 'sensible' thing if he wants to keep playing, since he's much more able to defend his core with interior lines than he is his periphery, when everything has to move by sea.

I kind of think SD will fall more toward the latter than the former. He's not usually the sort to fail to defend against a threat when he has a chance of trying to do so, IIRC.

Superdeath is very much the kind of player to spite-defend against the instigator. In PB66 we started the un-planned dogpile against him, taking two cities in the opening move and barely managing to slog to a third, while he actively left cities empty for other players to take. It's what I expect him to do here, so I'd try to use our mobility to attack from multiple flanks since we have the tech lead.

Yeah I am repositioning Caravels so that I can watch what he whips and where during this enforced peace. If it looks like he's gonna soft-gift cities, I should be able to react. I sort of doubt he will. But I do need to figure out fast if this round of whips were mostly Crossbows, mostly Galleons, or (most likely) a mix of the two.


One thing I do have quite a bit of MP experience with is playing this stage of the game - the Galleon-Privateer-Frigate era - in both tech leads and deficits. And when your opponent has Frigates and you have Galleons, the game is downright unplayable. You cannot do anything except huddle in your cities and try to use your Galleons to ferry defenses between cities. The tile counting every turn is miserable. You have no idea if the Galleons of your opponents are completely full, completely empty (bluffing), or mixed, so defending turns into poker and pick-your-poison really fast. It sucks so bad. And the only thing you can do is huddle in your cities and hope to get better boats yourself. It's incredibly frustrating to play. I do wonder if "spite defending" is less of a fear here given that Yuris is the only player he has tools to defend against. Or at least, that's where my brain went when I saw a Crossbow build on my front rather than a Galleon. Will see what my other Caravel sees in a couple turns.

[Zed-F]

So if Yuris does follow through and attack SD at the agreed time, what’s the not-scummy duration where we allow him to get stuck in before we cancel fish-fish and turn around and start hitting Yuris instead to end the game? 10 turns after the SD attack? 20? Certainly we should have a substantial number of Grens by then and his military whipping potential will hopefully be exhausted by then and his forces out of position to defend.

[scooter]

So if Yuris does follow through and attack SD at the agreed time, what’s the not-scummy duration where we allow him to get stuck in before we cancel fish-fish and turn around and start hitting Yuris instead to end the game? 10 turns after the SD attack? 20? Certainly we should have a substantial number of Grens by then and his military whipping potential will hopefully be exhausted by then and his forces out of position to defend.

Yeah I dunno. I'd rather not win with a nasty backstab when I really do not need to do so in order to win. I suppose we'll see if it looks like he's actually gearing up to harass SD or not. There's a chance he's lying to me in order to buy time, but I simply don't know yet. Another case where my scouting Caravel should be instructive.

[Zed-F]

Yeah we could just keep teching to space and just waiting for Yuris to decide he can’t catch up, if he does honor the deal to attack SD and we’re happy keeping the game going. I tend to think everyone else should be ready to concede before Yuris is, it’s just a question of how long we collectively keep the players with no chance hostage, and how much your upcoming vacation should impact keeping the game going (I tend to think not much, but you expressed a desire not to require a sub.) Ultimately how long we keep this going isn’t primarily up to us.

[Tarkeel]

So if Yuris does follow through and attack SD at the agreed time, what’s the not-scummy duration where we allow him to get stuck in before we cancel fish-fish and turn around and start hitting Yuris instead to end the game? 10 turns after the SD attack? 20? Certainly we should have a substantial number of Grens by then and his military whipping potential will hopefully be exhausted by then and his forces out of position to defend.

Yeah I dunno. I'd rather not win with a nasty backstab when I really do not need to do so in order to win. I suppose we'll see if it looks like he's actually gearing up to harass SD or not. There's a chance he's lying to me in order to buy time, but I simply don't know yet. Another case where my scouting Caravel should be instructive.

Honestly, my inclination would be to let Yuri live as long as he's useful and he's not growing into a threat. If nothing else it sets the standard for future games that you can be benevolent, and it's not a bad idea to have other players compete to be second as long as you are in the lead.

[scooter]

Yeah we could just keep teching to space and just waiting for Yuris to decide he can’t catch up, if he does honor the deal to attack SD and we’re happy keeping the game going. I tend to think everyone else should be ready to concede before Yuris is, it’s just a question of how long we collectively keep the players with no chance hostage, and how much your upcoming vacation should impact keeping the game going (I tend to think not much, but you expressed a desire not to require a sub.) Ultimately how long we keep this going isn’t primarily up to us.

So if Yuris does follow through and attack SD at the agreed time, what’s the not-scummy duration where we allow him to get stuck in before we cancel fish-fish and turn around and start hitting Yuris instead to end the game? 10 turns after the SD attack? 20? Certainly we should have a substantial number of Grens by then and his military whipping potential will hopefully be exhausted by then and his forces out of position to defend.

Yeah I dunno. I'd rather not win with a nasty backstab when I really do not need to do so in order to win. I suppose we'll see if it looks like he's actually gearing up to harass SD or not. There's a chance he's lying to me in order to buy time, but I simply don't know yet. Another case where my scouting Caravel should be instructive.

Honestly, my inclination would be to let Yuri live as long as he's useful and he's not growing into a threat. If nothing else it sets the standard for future games that you can be benevolent, and it's not a bad idea to have other players compete to be second as long as you are in the lead.

Yeah agreed with both of these. I have made passing remarks about getting aggressive to force concessions, but honestly it's mostly a function of the fact that I have a lot of viable options in my position, and it's fun to consider. But Yuris has been a good ally to me all game. The largest risk to my position is that my toughest two competitors team up and I can't plug all the holes, so Yuris making progress at SD's expense does not really threaten me in any significant way, and in fact helps me with this concern. I am having a good time playing turns still, and I wouldn't mind messing with some later game stuff, so yeah, no need to stab or even seriously consider stabbing. (Also, my economy has more unexplored upside than Yuris right now - SD has significantly more commerce power.)


I think instead the way to go is two-fold.

1) Supply Frigates on the Yuris/SD front to keep Yuris relatively safe. Maybe even consider bombarding down the occasional city for him. Meanwhile, look for razes on this front with the odd loaded Galleon to keep this front honest.


2) Look to gain a little land on SD's other front. Nothing major, maybe just a couple more cities nearest to Skinny Island near our core. Frigates can bombard these cities down freely while covering forking Galleons.


This can all be simultaneous with my big GA play. If SD looks like he might crumble harder, I can always unlock Grens and start capturing his core and/or use the distraction to go after Bing instead. Only if I feel like I need more land.

[Tarkeel]

So, I finally did what I promised to do some hundred turns ago: Log in and take a look. First, here's the opponents

Cairo


This is Cairo's core, with 13 of 17 cities; we also know the location of 3 more ice-ish cities to the north so there's only one unaccounted for. He has a handfull of towns and harbors, but the capital is sport two farmed grasslands.

Bing


This is Bing's core, with 15 of 19 cities accounted for; we also know the location 2-3 more iceballs. Bing actually has quite a few harbors, but is also still growing cottages and hamlets, and have saved quite a few lumbermills (some of which can support our invasion).

Yuris


This is Yuris' core, with 13 of 18 cities accounted for and 2-3 more likely in the fog; we also know the location of 2 more iceballs further north. Yuris also has a fair amount of harbors, but I don't see that many towns or villages. Newer cities have workshops, and he also has a fair amount of saved forests/lumbermills.

Superdeath




Superdeath actually has quite a sprawling land, so I needed to split in two screenshots. We know the location of 13 cities (of 18), with 2-3 heavily implied in the fog, so there are some likely iceballs missing. He has a few maturing villages (and some fresh cottage/hamlets) and quite a few harbors. But as has been mentioned before, his cities are smaller than the tiles they could and should work.

The World at Large


I actually quite like Cairo as our natural expansion, but Superdeath is probably the biggest threat that needs stopping.

[Zed-F]

Okay, this plan (don't really even think about invading anyone seriously unless SD starts falling apart in a major way) seems fine to me. If so, do we defer Military Science for a bit and just go hard into economy? Currently our plan looks something like Banking-Meditation-Philosophy-Military Science-something something economy, but how does this change if we defer Military Science?

After Philo,
- we can't go immediately to Nationalism - Constitution since we need to launch a 3rd GA first. (Democracy - SoL isn't really a thing either.)
- we could go Education-Economics and just save the merchant but this doesn't really give any immediate benefit, though denial + we will want it eventually
- similarly Education - Liberalism (Steel?) is also helpful long term but less so short term if we aren't prioritizing military stuff
- Printing Press - Replaceable Parts - Steam Power also offer minimal short-term benefits for our civ and are more useful long term
- Is there a world where we want Education - Liberalism - Printing Press - Sci Method - Communism for State Property during our GA? I'm not sure whether this is better than just getting Constitution for Representation. That said I don't think we can realistically get Communism until we're into our 3rd GA anyway, which is the timeframe we'd be looking at for Constitution regardless. Plus Constitution gives access to Corporations if we eventually want to play with Sid's Sushi (Merchant) or get an Engineer for one of the others available in that era (not nearly as good tho).

Of course we can slot in Military Science whenever it's convenient for us if we aren't getting it straight after Philosophy. So I guess regardless of which path we pursue, prior to our 3rd GA we're just denying first-to bonuses to rivals, so probably Education-Economics and prepare Liberalism makes the most sense. And getting Military Science first does give us more flexibility of having already built the Grens if we decide at some point to launch a more serious attack.

EDIT: I looked again at the tech needed for Sid’s Sushi and it still seems like an excessively deep beeline. Getting it after metal boats and factories and infantry makes a lot more sense than before. If it were still at Medicine we might entertain it, but at Refrigeration it’s just so many beakers that aren’t going toward improving our production or keeping us safe.

[scooter]

- Is there a world where we want Education - Liberalism - Printing Press - Sci Method - Communism for State Property during our GA? I'm not sure whether this is better than just getting Constitution for Representation. That said I don't think we can realistically get Communism until we're into our 3rd GA anyway, which is the timeframe we'd be looking at for Constitution regardless. Plus Constitution gives access to Corporations if we eventually want to play with Sid's Sushi (Merchant) or get an Engineer for one of the others available in that era (not nearly as good tho).

I think the eco-heavy approach entails trying to use the GA to Lib something wild like Communism or Physics. That may sound absurd, but it's not really. By my quick and dirty rough estimates we could get Scientific Method + Lib in about 20T at current tech rate, but during a GA it would be faster. Of course, that delays snowballing our naval edge (or Grens), but honestly it may take 20T for rivals to get Frigates of their own. Airships are OP and Physics is expensive.






Still no Galleons spied on this side of the map. Also note the culture - apparently one of SD's new settlements is that Crab/Incense island that was previously unsettled.





Meanwhile, Samurai are rolling off the assembly line. Note the Galley all ready to transport it east. Yuris does seem to mean business.





And speaking of, Yuris finally picked up Paper, which means he can also build Galleons. I have at least 1 Frigate and Privateer each already moving towards both fronts with a few more Frigates right behind them just to be prepped for anything. In addition, Superdeath picked up Mysticism. Yesterday I posted about how far is left him from Feudalism, and I totally forgot that he needs all of that for Chemistry. If Superdeath is beelining Chemistry right now, he would need to do the following:


* Polytheism
* Priesthood
* Monarchy
* Feudalism
* Guilds
* Construction
* Engineering
* Gunpowder
* Chemistry


This is my top tech competition at the moment. I think Tarkeel should make a tech tree update.


So uh, who wants to try to Lib Physics for fun? Open to even more stupid suggestions.





Islands continue doing their thing while core cities alternate Frigates and Muskets. A couple missionaries being squeezed in given I may be exiting OR somewhat soon.





Superdeath's power spike still left him in last place. We have the #1 military.





One interesting thing that's going on too. Note the import/exports.





Superdeath is freely signing OBs with everyone. The import/export number is fairly unreliable, so it's difficult for me to gauge exactly how much - if anything - he is getting from international routes as the other PRO player. But what is true is he's subsidizing everyone else's commerce situation by signing these deals.


What's interesting is even though this is bad for him relative to the other 3, he may not have a choice given he has to take whatever he can get to catch up to me. It's one interesting counter-factual of this game. Initially I wanted to work with SD to freeze out the world of routes and split other players. Early on I was imaginging splitting Yuris with him. He made it clear he wasn't going to work with me, so instead we're enemies, and he's feeding routes to other players at very limited benefit to himself. Not sure he has a choice, but PRO in general has weird incentives, so I thought it was noteworthy.

[Zed-F]

If we are looking for big ticket items to Liberalize, I guess Physics is an option. I wouldn't necessarily pick it over Railroad or Assembly Line (around the same beaker cost / tech level) unless I was going for Communism anyway -- Railroad opens Combustion which gives metal ships and those are probably more important in purely military terms than Airships (albeit - airships are more flexible.)

Here's the thing though -- are we going to build Kremlin and remain in Slavery? Assembly Line and Drydocks aren't really super attractive for us without it, since we have so few cities with naturally high production. Going for Communism (State Property and Kremlin) is certainly something we could do a lot faster than going for Sid's Sushi and seems like a more achievable top-end goal, before Yuris has had enough fun with Samurai and thinks we can call the game. It also means we won't need Constitution and can get Nationalism whenever it's convenient, rather than 'sooner' in order to boost our snowball.

Adjusting the tech order slightly, I think the beeline for this after Philosophy would be Education - Most of Liberalism (but not all) - Printing Press - Sci Method - (Liberalize either Physics or Communism) - (Communism or Physics) depending on (a) when our GA runs out and (b) whether we need to slot Military Science, Economics, or Nationalism in there to beef up our ground troops, or prevent someone else from claiming the first-tos. Also... just how many GPs could we reasonably make in 24 turns of Pacifism to go with potential Merchant/Scientist/Spy from first-tos? Is it plausible we could get a 4th MoM GA before obsoleting MoM?