[SPOILERS] scooter Expands the Empire Across the Sea

[scooter]

This piece of global news surprised me today.





Cairo teched Philosophy? What's he going for? It's possible he's angling for Taj knowing that I won't be ready to obsolete MoM quite yet. The other possibility is Liberalism. Keep in mind he has tech visibility on me, so he may have been watching me tech other things and thought it was open. Importantly, neither of these techs are Astronomy. Well, I suppose Liberalism could be.


Superdeath also got Feudalism. CG3 Longbows are probably going to be too much for me to do anything about honestly. On the eve of our peace expiration, here's his coastal situation.











We'll see if he can keep everything covered, but I really don't have enough units in the area yet to do serious attacks here. I'm mostly curious whether Bawaiting will remain empty or not. Seems unlikely. However, as discussed, it's possible all this whipping - and he just did a ton of it again tonight - may as well be mission accomplished. We will see next turn if Yuris joins in, but he's simply being way too slow and not really seriously committing, which is a bit obnoxious.


Meanwhile, circling back to Cairo's rather audacious choice to delay Astro for Philosophy.

The World at Large


I actually quite like Cairo as our natural expansion, but Superdeath is probably the biggest threat that needs stopping.

Worth considering.

[scooter]

Superdeath played and whipped away 18 population. It looks like 9 whips, but it seems like more as one of them appears to be 5 pop, so surely that is a couple whips being combined. I peeked inside just to get a preview of tomorrow's turn so I could think about it in advance.





He did stuff a CG2 Crossbow in Bawaiting. However, it has no fortify bonus, and my Frigate will reduce the cultural defenses to 12%. As a result, the two Muskets + Mace on board my one forward Galleon should easily raze this city. I think I should too as it gives me the chance to kill the Galleon which is inside. In addition, the Caravel and both Galleys should die too if the dice rolls go my way. Actually, I should check to make sure a Frigate can bombard and attack in the same turn. All other cities are defended by multiple crossbows, and this trio of units won't be enough for that. I have a couple more Galleons coming with a few more Muskets, but it'll be a couple turns.


I'd love to capture Hovenweep with the second wave and then turn around and settle TundraDeer and maybe Bawating. If I cut off reinforcements properly, that should be fine. I have 2 more Frigs coming just off-screen, so I should be able to firmly cut them off soon.





However, I have no idea how Yuris can do a thing on his front. His Samurai are simply hard-countered by SD's Protective Crossbows. He did only a single 2-pop whip last turn, so he doesn't look like he's taking this particularly seriously. So I'm having mild doubts about the whole thing I guess.


It does feel like regardless I ought to take what's there on the SD front. Another option would be to land units next to Bawaiting on the forest and then ask for Hovenweep for peace. In this scenario I scout ahead with the Privateer, and if there's no boats in range to reinforce, I land which could potentially save me a death attacking Bawaiting, but more importantly give me a chance to negotiate a peace-out that he might be OK with. But honestly, it's a bit too hard to pass up killing a Galleon in port. A quick peace-out with mild gains might open me up to a similar expedition with Cairo, for example. Whale Island is just a couple turns away from my boats after all.

[Zed-F]

What bulbs does Philosophy open up for Cairo? Could he bulb Education? From looking at screenshots of the event log I think they could have at least 1 scientist available, but they are PHI; if they don't have any saved GP, they could get some pretty quickly, especially having unlocked Pacifism. They might instead be planning to string together a couple GAs like we are. I guess this means that we need to decide (once we have Unta's GP) how quickly we need to claim Liberalism, as we could be in a race for it if Cairo decides to head toward Education. I suppose if we are in a race we might be forced to grab Steel or something, just to get good value for the free tech, instead of using it on Physics/Communism as we'd prefer to.

One other thing Cairo could be thinking if he's considering going toward Liberalism anyway is getting Gunpowder via that route and skipping Guilds for now. Libbing Astronomy and teching Gunpowder would quickly get him Privateers, in principle. I am pretty confident we can beat him to Liberalism if it comes to that, though; he'd need a very well laid plan to get there before us and it would probably cost him multiple GPs to do it. And if he were planning to race us to Liberalism -- wouldn't it make more sense to get Education first and try to conceal that Liberalism is the target until you're almost on top of it? Getting Philosophy is a bit of a give-away for a potential Liberalism play. He probably hasn't got a bunch of hidden beakers sunk into a partly completed Education already, since he recently teched Theology before Philosophy, so there hasn't been a window where he hasn't teched anything.

So it might be more likely Cairo is instead going to Nationalism, as that's the more conservative play in that it doesn't directly race us. It's possible he might indeed be able to get Taj if he really tries to beat us to it, as we wouldn't be able to contest that for quite a few turns, if at all. Plus if he's going for GAs then getting Nationalism probably makes more sense than bulbing Education or racing to Liberalism; he'll want GA production to speed Taj if that's the plan.

But we could maybe punish a failure to build defenses by pivoting to Cairo, whether we decide to further blacken SD's eye first or not (and by how much). Maybe there's some negotiations we need to make with Yuris if we are thinking about changing targets. Regardless of what Cairo's doing, an attack now (or a credible threat of attack, as with SD) might put a big crimp in his ability to race us to Liberalism and cut a lot of value out of any potential GA plans on Cairo's part. Seems like whatever gains we want to make against SD, we want to keep it short and sweet.

[T-hawk]

Actually, I should check to make sure a Frigate can bombard and attack in the same turn.

I'm rusty on Civ 4 and could be remembering Civ 5 or something else but I think that doesn't work.

[scooter]

Yeah, Yuris is backing out. He also sent me a follow-up request where he offered to Stop Trading with Superdeath with nothing in return. I happily accepted this. It cost him a whopping 23gpt while saving gold, so it had a real negative affect on his finances, so there was real cost to Yuris for doing this. I'm annoyed, however I decided to press on in the west.





Easy flawless kill on this Galley to start. Then I moved forward, bombarded Bawating, and sent in the Muskets.





Loss, but did some damage.





Flawless win.





Maybe this is a bit risky, but I elected to KEEP this one. It's got a first-ring seafood, and I have hope I can push the culture back. But in general I'd like to move the borders back and take some of these islands. In addition, he just doesn't have the units needed to recapture. If it backfires, very little lost. Keeping the Granary pushed me over the edge. We'll need to chop that forest, though.





I also whacked this Galley, briefly unloading the Mace in Bawating just to be safe. I somehow missed taking a shot of my next batch of units being ferried over, but they are coming now. (I think that sign is wrong.)








Meanwhile, easy to see why Superdeath scared off Yuris. He's defended much better on that side while Yuris barely whipped at all.





I queued a few Trebs. I've got Frigs to bombard defenses, and I have Muskets as decent hitters, but it would be nice to have a few softeners. Also, there's a vague world where we try to Lib Steel or something soon, so they could get upgraded to Cannons if we do go that route.





I offered Superdeath a path forward. If he cedes me Hovenweep, I'll go away. I sent him a second offer like this of Peace for Hovenweep and War with Cairo to indicate to him that I'm happy to turn into war allies if he so desires. Seems unlikely, but maybe it appeals if his interest in fighting to the death is low.





Here's what I would like to come of all of this. I'll try to capture Hovenweep and then settle White Dot. Bawating would struggle a tad with culture, but overall I'd be happy with this outcome. It would allow me to defend more over here and make the buffer to my core very large. We'll see how it works. The main trick is going to be trying to block Hovenweep from receiving reinforcements. I'll try to use my Frigates to do that. Given it's size 1 and lacks any good tiles, it shouldn't be able to produce much on its own. So if I can cut off reinforcements, the two Crossbows shouldn't be too hard to crack. Knock on wood.


Finally, it's time for my GA dice roll. 90% chance of good news, 10% chance of Scientist. And...





Sigh. Time for Plan B.





I think Plan B is bulb around 80% of Education and then use gold in the bank to finish it + Economics in about 3T and then fire my Golden Age that way. Then after that I keep an eye on Cairo's tech path and take Liberalism whenever ready.


The other option is to get way more aggressive and go Education (bulb), then Lib Steel or MilSci right now. In this situation I would Lib either Cannons or Grens, then go for a HARD whip round and really get a good force and go conquering, and then in the background quietly tech Economics to backfill the Merchant and pop into a MoM Golden Age while regrowing the whipped population in about 8-10T.

[scooter]

Oh in case it's not obvious, the casualties this turn.

Me: 1 Musket (80h)

Superdeath:

* 1 Crossbow: 60h
* 2 Galleys: 100h
* 1 Galleon: 80h
* 1 City with Granary: 160h (I think there was a Totem Pole too, but I'll ignore that)


80h for 400h. Or put another way, 13 pop of whips destroyed. Hard to pass up that type of opening.

[Zed-F]

Sounds good for military, hopefully SD is happy to take an out with us just nibbling at his periphery and doesn't force us to take Hovenweep the hard way. I don't think it's ever grown or popped borders so if we have to take it by force we have to be concerned about the possibility of an auto-raze. Still, SD doesn't necessarily know we won't continue to punish him if he doesn't take the deal (and we might, at that, if we have to Lib Steel and he doesn't take peace.) Maybe he'd be interested in allying against Cairo but you're right that it seems a long shot.

Unfortunate on the die roll for the GP, but that's why we saved the cash so we could burn for Economics. I don't think we want to have to go to Lib straight away unless Cairo forces our hand; we'd prefer to start our GA first. But yeah, if Cairo does burn for Education too, then we might have to Lib a military tech before we get Economics. I tend to think Steel is the better Lib target than Military Science, since it costs more, it helps us keep our naval production/XP edge, and Cannons are approximately as useful as Grens, especially since we have few city raider maces we could promote into city raider Grens. We can more easily research Military Science the conventional way afterwards if necessary. Understood on the desire to make use of a military tech if we are forced to Lib one, even if it does delay the GA.

Fortunately I don't think we're at risk of losing the Economics merchant, since Cairo lacks Guilds and Banking. But hopefully our guess that Cairo is more likely going to Nationalism instead is correct, and makes all this moot. If Cairo goes Nationalism, we probably hit the GA button and do our thing. If Cairo goes Education and SD doesn't peace, we probably Lib Steel and get ready to fight SD. If Cairo goes Education and SD peaces, we probably Lib Steel and get ready to fight, but have different options on who we're fighting.

[scooter]

Superdeath played, so I peeked in to check the tactical situation for next turn. He did not accept my peace offer which isn't very surprising. He countered with me giving him 20gpt and war with Cairo. Think it suggests he's open to my offer, but only if paid reparations. I don't see much reason to do that, so it seems we'll continue a little for now. He didn't whip much at all this turn, possibly becauses his queues all needed to reset anyway.





His only combat was this, which looks like either tilt or a misclick. Probably tilt. It did no damage, and it actually took me a second to figure out which Frigate this even was until I realized I needed to look for a 3xp Frigate.





While I ferry more units, the primary order of business will be ensuring he cannot reinforce via the north. My Privateer has the path from his core pretty well-scouted. As long as I prevent his boats from going into the water, he's a little bit limited because he risks having units sunk at sea. He could move from inside Moundville and drop a unit on the incense, but I can cut off that path. As long as I can keep only two Crossbows in Hovenweep, I can capture it in a couple of turns easily. If he gets a third, it'll get much tougher, though still possible.


Note: As Zed-F has pointed out, it'll auto-raze even though I keep typing "capture." This is fine - not like there are any buildings here anyway. Queuing up a settler or two next to resettle these.





In the east I can't really make any advances, though I do have a loaded Galleon and some Frigates in the area. But these are bigger cities that are simply much better defended. I may just poke around with Frigates and be a nuisance - pillage some seafood or something.


That said, if I really wanna get wild, I could settle Black Dot. It really would be an interesting city. I probably could have made this pink by nature of being both extreme and triple food.





I've briefly lost Cairo's graphs yet again, but I'll get them back next turn. However, SD really did spike again in the last couple turns as he spammed Crossbows and mixed in some Longbows. You can also clearly see Yuris losing enthusiasm for the 2v1 if it was ever going to happen.





However, it's come at an enormous cost.





I think this is actually the most striking graph despite the usual GNP noisiness. You can see the "bottom" for SD has dropped significantly from a few turns ago, and Yuris has dragged down a bit as well. Meanwhile, mine is extremely steady and still growing upwards, though it has slowed a tad. Meanwhile, Bing has used his peace to start catching up to the Yuris/SD duo.


Finally, everyone was saving gold when I logged in, so a quick whip-around.


Me: +424gpt
Superdeath: +197gpt
Yuris: +132gpt
Bing: +176gpt
Cairo: +201gpt


An interesting contrast, here was what I collected 7 turns ago.

Superdeath: 293gpt
Yuris: 152gpt
Bing: 94gpt
Myself: 380gpt (end of today's turn)
Cairo: n/a (in the 100s recently IIRC)

You can see the SD/Yuris drops, while Bing in particular has nearly doubled his in 7 turns. As always, very possible Wealth is distorting things.

[Zed-F]

I guess we could offer to buy Hovenweep from him for peace if he wants us to pay reparations to the tune of 20gpt; a size 1 city isn't worth that much but it's useful symbolically. We've done about 100 gpt of damage to his economy and can easily afford 20 gpt for 10 turns, if we want to turn around and hit Cairo instead. It would save us the settler as well. It might be useful to keep haggling to suggest we're open to considering what peace might look like; we don't intend for this to be a forever war and would rather not SD get stuck in that mindset.

I think we go after Black/Pink dot only if we don't intend to pivot to warring on another front, if then. We don't want our navy stretched too thin and a new city there would be super vulnerable without constant and significant naval protection. We'd be going into a GA where it can't whip any defenders or growth-oriented buildings for a long time, too.

[Tarkeel]

Good start. Playing against someone with superior navy usually means moving very carefully between ports and forts, and looking for the opening where a Nav2 galley can deliver a blow. I think that's unlikely in this scenario though, but both Moundville and Mount City should be possible to isolate. You can use blockade to stop iron from flowing in, but he can still build LBs.

His only combat was this, which looks like either tilt or a misclick. Probably tilt. It did no damage, and it actually took me a second to figure out which Frigate this even was until I realized I needed to look for a 3xp Frigate.

You can actually click on that line in the event log to zoom to the tile where combat took place.

In the east I can't really make any advances, though I do have a loaded Galleon and some Frigates in the area. But these are bigger cities that are simply much better defended. I may just poke around with Frigates and be a nuisance - pillage some seafood or something.

I fully support burning some fishing boats.

That said, if I really wanna get wild, I could settle Black Dot. It really would be an interesting city. I probably could have made this pink by nature of being both extreme and triple food.

I like this one. It's a good city in it's own, but also has some serious strategic value, especially once we get airships.