T016 - risk management
Scout is taking risks to uncover the last few nearby tiles:
If the Panther attacks it will have odds, but at 0.78HP it's nothing like a guaranteed win. With the mountain range this area could even be considered "backlines" which I'll see anyway with the border pop, but it would also be by far the fastest way to get a second city going if there is a second food over here and I think it's worth the risk to know sooner and be able to plan accordingly. But if I don't settle this area straight away, I will at least not need to fear Barbs.
Getting back to the possibility of Chariot rush, I wondered whether I should skip AH and go straight to Bronze Working? I do have a turn of leeway on AH under either Worker plan, so I went ahead and switched for this turn anyway. I ran some sims and I can definitely get a Settler out faster (t31 vs t34/35) by skipping, but it is really going to impact my growth curve afterwards.
So I went back to techs and my neighbours. I can see 2x Agriculture and 2x AH, but no other known tech researched. Greenline's Persia starts with Hunting/Agri and he could easily have taken Mining and be on the way to BW unless he wanted Fishing for WB start. He does have the Chariot UU, so could be a candidate to rush someone. We are at opposite corners of the "square" and he's closer to xist... xist started with Sumeria's Wheel/Agri and just finished a second tech, so Hunting and AH are 2 of the techs and the 3rd could be Fishing or Mining. When I saw his Worker the Deer Camp was complete, so I think he must have skipped the Workboat and gone Worker first - which means no fishing so probably Mining the 3rd tech and now started BW. Gira's India started with Myst/Mining, would have to have taken a food tech 3rd. They are one of the players who grew the capital to size2, which means they took Fishing, went WB-first, and then grew while researching food techs. It's unlikely they have Mining, so not on the way to BW.
Looking at this analysis, it seems like a Vulture-rush from xist is the more likely vulnerability, so AH and securing Horses should be the priority. Chariots at least can be used to counter Immortals, while BW would have to split between Axes & Spears. OK, so I'm going back to AH next turn.
I've also put down a tentative dotmap as first thoughts:
Scout is taking risks to uncover the last few nearby tiles:
If the Panther attacks it will have odds, but at 0.78HP it's nothing like a guaranteed win. With the mountain range this area could even be considered "backlines" which I'll see anyway with the border pop, but it would also be by far the fastest way to get a second city going if there is a second food over here and I think it's worth the risk to know sooner and be able to plan accordingly. But if I don't settle this area straight away, I will at least not need to fear Barbs.
Getting back to the possibility of Chariot rush, I wondered whether I should skip AH and go straight to Bronze Working? I do have a turn of leeway on AH under either Worker plan, so I went ahead and switched for this turn anyway. I ran some sims and I can definitely get a Settler out faster (t31 vs t34/35) by skipping, but it is really going to impact my growth curve afterwards.
So I went back to techs and my neighbours. I can see 2x Agriculture and 2x AH, but no other known tech researched. Greenline's Persia starts with Hunting/Agri and he could easily have taken Mining and be on the way to BW unless he wanted Fishing for WB start. He does have the Chariot UU, so could be a candidate to rush someone. We are at opposite corners of the "square" and he's closer to xist... xist started with Sumeria's Wheel/Agri and just finished a second tech, so Hunting and AH are 2 of the techs and the 3rd could be Fishing or Mining. When I saw his Worker the Deer Camp was complete, so I think he must have skipped the Workboat and gone Worker first - which means no fishing so probably Mining the 3rd tech and now started BW. Gira's India started with Myst/Mining, would have to have taken a food tech 3rd. They are one of the players who grew the capital to size2, which means they took Fishing, went WB-first, and then grew while researching food techs. It's unlikely they have Mining, so not on the way to BW.
Looking at this analysis, it seems like a Vulture-rush from xist is the more likely vulnerability, so AH and securing Horses should be the priority. Chariots at least can be used to counter Immortals, while BW would have to split between Axes & Spears. OK, so I'm going back to AH next turn.
I've also put down a tentative dotmap as first thoughts: